Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics 2021: Ministerial Statement

Last month the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation issued a stark warning, projecting – for the first time ever - global temperatures are likely to temporarily breach 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming during the next five years.

The Paris Agreement calls on every nation to ‘pursue all efforts’ to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. These projections indicate we likely have - for the first time in human history – a very unwelcome glimpse of what crossing that longer term threshold would be like.

For Scotland, and indeed across the world, this is uncharted territory.

It is, therefore, more important than ever that Scotland is stepping up and playing our part in realising the benefits of a Net Zero, climate resilient future.

And it is right that this Parliament passed some of the world’s most ambitious climate legislation by a significant, cross-party majority. And I stress: cross party. And it is true that these targets are driving transformational change with Scottish emissions already cut in half. But we can be under no illusion, the hardest part of this journey is ahead of us: we need to halve our emissions again by 2030 to meet this parliament’s, rightly, very stretching target set by Parliament.  
It's against this background, I want to update Parliament on progress towards Scotland’s statutory climate targets.

Presiding Officer, Official Statistics published this morning show that Scotland has narrowly missed its annual target for 2021, achieving a 49.9% emissions reduction against a target of 51.1% from the 1990 baseline. To miss our target so narrowly – by just 1.2 percentage points - is, of course, disappointing - but it also demonstrates that we are not far behind where our world-leading targets dictate we need to be.

While the 2021 results show a rebound from 2020, this was not entirely unexpected given how much the 2020 position was affected by pandemic lockdowns. And Scotland is not unique in experiencing this. UK emissions rebounded by 4.4% over the period, compared to 2.4% in Scotland. And we knew to expect an increase in transport emissions as a result of Covid restrictions easing, and we also expected that one of the coldest winter in 10 years was likely to see an increase in domestic heating emissions.  

PO any target missed is a concern and not something I will shy away from. However, we can take heart from data showing continued underlying progress in many sectors, such as energy supply and industry. We must also remember that whilst the data reflects a rebound in activity after the COVID-pandemic, it does not yet reflect the additional and boosted climate policies introduced in our updated Climate Change Plan, of March 2021.

And on that note, Presiding Officer, we are delivering progress right across our economy:

Under this government, Scotland is becoming a renewables powerhouse. We have launched the world’s largest floating offshore wind leasing round through ScotWind, which will initially deliver over £750 million in revenue. Developers have also also committed to invest an average of £1.4 billion in Scotland, per project, which equates to around £28 billion across the 20 projects.

We are investing £100 million in renewable hydrogen projects over this Parliament and have awarded an additional £15 million through our Energy Transition Fund to support development of a Hydrogen Hub in Aberdeen

Since launching the Young Persons’ Free Bus pass in January last year we’ve seen a new cardholder every minute. Alongside similar schemes for Older and Disabled People, we are supporting more than a third of the population. With over 3 million journeys every week we are helping people all across Scotland cut costs and to make sustainable travel more attractive.

On rail services, we continue to develop the decarbonisation programme, building on the pre-pandemic position where more than 75% of all rail passenger journeys in Scotland were electric. 

We are encouraging people to change from petrol or diesel cars with the most comprehensive public charging network in the UK outside of London – that‘s nearly 4,000 public charge points.

And in our natural environment, over 75% of the UK's new woodland creation has taken place in Scotland in recent years and we are investing to scale up activity futher.

PO these policies, among many others, demonstrate the breadth and depth of this government’s ambition and indeed our delivery.

Of course, the statistics published today demonstrate there is – clearly – lots more to do. That’s the nature of the global climate emergency which demands a unique scale and pace of change.

In this context, I am grateful to the Climate Change Committee for their December 2022 Report. I have responded today and have accepted or partially accepted 98 of the 99 recommendations – the remaining recommendation being entirely reserved and not in our gift.

And while this government commits and re-commits itself to deep and urgent emission reductions, it is also essential that we do so in a way that is fair, with the voices of those most impacted driving our actions. I am committed to ensuring we listen and act on what we hear from our communities, workers and their union representatives, and our businesses.

That is why I have today published a suite of discussion papers to inform our Just Transition Plans: for the Built Environment and Construction, Land Use and Agriculture, and for Transport. These discussion papers set out a vision for a fair transition with broad questions aimed at identifying the key priorities as policies develop.

In developing these papers, I want to put on record my gratitude to the Just Transition Commission for advice so far, and look forward to meeting stakeholders across Scotland over the coming months.

Presiding Officer, let me be clear  this Government is absolutely committed to a just transition. We are taking workers with us on our journey to net zero. We will never do to our oil and gas workers what Thatcher did to our mining and steel communities. And we will always strive to understand the needs of those impacted by change.

As this year‘s draft Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan has set out, we have a clear vision on how we can direct Scotland’s enviable skills, talent and natural resources to deliver an energy system that provides affordable, resilient and clean energy supplies.

And, of course, a Just Transition is for all of Scotland, not just the North East. When I recently visited Grangemouth I saw the work that’s contributing to continued progress in reducing industrial emissions. Alongside major private investment in the site, we are supprting change through our Just Transition Plan for the Grangemouth cluster.

Presiding Officer, before covering this government’s next steps, a word of warning.

We know the race to Net Zero is one that we must all win. Yet, it is obvious we are constrained by the current limits of devolution. PO, I wish – dearly – that this government had all the powers of a normal independent nation. Not least to control our own vast energy resources. Not having this naturally hinders our ability to institute the transformational change across our economy and society that this emergency demands. The UK Government must urgently act on reserved matters including CCUS, hydrogen , electricity grid infrastructure and decarbonisation of the gas network. Similarly, PO, I cannot stress enough how, against the world leading targets this parliament set, we can ill-afford a UK Government willing to trash devolution and sabotage policies like DRS – which have been years in the making, were backed by this parliament and an important part of our emissions reduction plan.

It is clear that Scotland’s contribution to global climate action will be significantly enhanced when we become an independent nation.

And as I look forward to that day Presiding Officer, I also want to look forward to our climate plans. Today is a moment to take stock. This is not just about the next year. This is about well-informed, ambitious decision making that will shape a generation< and generations to come. 

We may be half-way to Net Zero, but – as I have said - the hardest part is still ahead.

We also know, for example, in transport, that we must find ways to put people - not cars - first. That is why we are working with CoSLA to finalise our 20% reduction in Car Kilometre Route Map and have commissioned research on equitable options for car demand management which we will publish in the coming months.

Of course, the most direct levers on the cost of buying or running a petrol or diesel car – namely fuel duty and vehicle excise duty – are currently reserved. Recent rises in motoring costs underline the unfairness of the current, regressive tax regime and we will continue to press the UK Government for a fair and progressive tax system that better incentivises the transition to zero-emission vehicles, reduces unnecessary journeys and raises revenues to fund policies to support more sustainable travel.

Along with transport, heating Scotland’s homes and buildings is another of the biggest contributors to our carbon emissions. That is why we will consult this year on a proposed Heat in Buildings Bill, inviting views on options for regulating energy efficiency and zero emissions heat across Scotland’s homes and buildings.

These are just some of the matters we will address as we prepare to set out the draft of our next Climate Change Plan at the end of the year.

In the meantime, let us all – as a Government and a Parliament – lean ever further in to a bold and ambitious approach because, Presiding Officer, nothing less will suffice.