The Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Requirements) (Scotland) Amendment Regulations 2022 and The Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Requirements) (Scotland) Amendment (No. 2) Regulations 2022: business and regulatory impact assessment

Footnotes

1. Coronavirus (COVID-19): framework for decision making - assessing the four harms - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

3. *12 January 2022 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

4. *12 January 2022 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

5. 22 December 2021 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

6. *12 January 2022 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

7. SAGE 98 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 7 December 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

8. Omicron in Scotland - evidence paper - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

9. *12 January 2022 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

10. *12 January 2022 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

11. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

12. *12 January 2022 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

13. S1460_-_SPI-M-O_consensus_statement_to_SAGE.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

14. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

15. *S1476_SAGE_102_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

16. 22 December 2021 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

17. *S1476_SAGE_102_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

18. SAGE 101 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 23 December 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

19. *12 January 2022 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

20. SPI-M-O: Consensus Statement on COVID-19, 7 December 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

21. *12 January 2022 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

22. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

23. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

24. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

25. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 2 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

26. *S1476_SAGE_102_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

27. 22 December 2021 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

28. 22 December 2021 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

29. EAVE II | The University of Edinburgh

30. The REACT 1 programme | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

31. Office for National Statistics (24 September 2021). Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK

32. COVID-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public

33. COVID-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public

34. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

35. 22 December 2021 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

36. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation- Technical briefing 34 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

37. Office for National Statistics (1 December 2021) Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infecton Survey, characteristics of people testing positive for COVID-19, UK: 2 February 2022

38. British Medical Journal (30 June 2021) How long does covid-19 immunity last?

39. Journal of Infection (17 June 2021) One year later: SARS-Cov-2 immune response and vaccination of healthcare workers post-infection

40. British Medical Journal (30 June 2021) How long does covid-19 immunityh last?

41. Journal of Infection (17 June 2021) One year later: SARC-CoV-2 immune response and vaccination of healthcare workers post-infection

42. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (13 August 2021) Reduced Risk of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19 Vaccinaton - Kentucky, May-June 2021

43. The Lancet (May 2021) Prevalence of antibody positivity to SARS-CoV-2 following the first pea of infection in England: Serial cross-sectional studies of 365,000 adults

44. NERVTAG (27 May 2021) Update note on immunity to SARS-CoV-2 after natural infection

45. Get tested for coronavirus (COVID-19) - NHS (www.nhs.uk)

46. Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection (who.int)

47. S0519_Impact_of_false_positives_and_negatives.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

48. Asymptomatic testing backed by new research studies - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

49. SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid lateral flow test (LFT) sensitivity | CLEP (dovepress.com)

50. Comparing the diagnostic accuracy of point-of-care lateral flow antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 with RT-PCR in primary care (REAP-2) - EClinicalMedicine (thelancet.com)

51. 20220110_Self-isolation_Scientific-Summary_Final-clean.pdf (koha-ptfs.co.uk)

52. Outcome of the evaluation of rapid diagnostic assays for specific SARS-CoV-2 antigens (lateral flow devices) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

53. S1393_SPI-B_SPI-M_EMG_Considerations_for_potential_impact_of_Plan_B_measures_13_October_2021.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

54. Options for the use of rapid antigen tests for COVID-19 in the EU/EEA - first update (europa.eu)

55. WHO (13 December 2020). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): How is it transmitted?

56. SAGE. Insights on transmission of COVID-19 with a focus on the hospitality, retail and leisure sector.

57. WHO (13 December 2020). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): How is it transmitted?

58. WHO (13 December 2020). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): How is it transmitted?

59. SPI-B (2 July 2020) S0582_High_connectivity_situations_outside_the_occupational_or_workplace_context__1_.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

60. S1470_Non_household_activities_covid_risk__1_.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

61. PI_2021 12_Kinos: Good ventilation ensures low risk of infection - Fraunhofer IBP

62. Managing COVID-19 Transmission Risks in Bars: An Interview and Observation Study: Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs: Vol 82, No 1 (jsad.com)

63. Pass Time: Quantifying the Public-Health Benefits of a Covid Pass | Institute for Global Change

64. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report

65. Scottish household survey 2019: annual report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

66. 22 December 2021 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

67. Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.84) - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

68. Scottish Government (17 December 2021) Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech - 17 December 2021

69. The BRIA for certification regulations introduced in October 2021 is available at: Coronavirus (COVID-19) domestic vaccine certification: business and regulatory impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). The Evidence Paper published in September 2021 is available at: Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). The Evidence Paper published in November 2021 is available at: Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

70. Scottish Annual Business Survey, Scottish Annual Business Statistics (SABS) 2019 Scottish. Note that SABS excludes financial sector & parts of agriculture and the public sector.

71. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 43 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

72. Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot). Page 47.

73. Source: feedback to officials from Ambassadors Theatre Group, November 2021

74. Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot). Page 40.

75. For instance: Edinburgh nightclub scraps Covid vaccine passports amid huge decline in footfall - Edinburgh Live

76. Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), page 40

77. Source: joint NTIA, SBPA, SHG, SLTA, UKH survey – results shared with SG in w/b 15/11; shared with Covid-19 committee in evidence pack for meeting of 18/11/21: Microsoft Word - NTIA SLTA Evidence .docx (parliament.scot)

78. Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), page 40

79. Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), pages 47-48. Opinion polling is carried out by YouGov for the Scottish Government: conducted fortnightly with a sample of c.1000 adults 18+ across Scotland – demographically and geographically representative of the online population; fieldwork conducted mainly Tuesday/Wednesday on the dates shown with a small number of interviews on the Thursday morning.

80. Scottish household survey 2019: culture and heritage - report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot), Table 3.3.

81. COVID-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public

82. Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), pages 39-40.

83. Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), page 40.

84. The BRIA for certification regulations introduced in October 2021 is available at: Coronavirus (COVID-19) domestic vaccine certification: business and regulatory impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). The Evidence Paper published in September 2021 is available at: Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). The Evidence Paper published in November 2021 is available at: Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

85. S1216_Considerations_in_implementing_longerterm_baseline_NPIs.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

86. COVID-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public

87. Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot). See pages 45-46 for an overview of pandemic impacts on the broad sectors containing hospitality and events businesses.

88. Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), page 46.

90. COVID-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public

91. Written correspondence from the NTIA provided to officials on 20th January suggested that without sensitive and careful drafting of proposed changes to the definition, an attempt to close the 'loophole' of concern might bring up to 1,000 non-nightclub premises into scope that had previously legitimately amended their business models to take themselves out of scope of certification requirements. The Scottish Government view is that this change will not affect those that have taken legitimate and genuine steps to remove themselves from certification by amending their business models and practice. Businesses who are already genuinely out of scope based on the previous regulations will remain out of scope, unless they are trading after 12pm, clearly have a space where dancing is taking place and no discouragement of this is happening.

92. S1216_Considerations_in_implementing_longerterm_baseline_NPIs.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

93. Coronavirus (COVID-19) domestic vaccine certification: business and regulatory impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

94. Welsh Government (17 September 2021). Covid pass for events & nightclubs announced

95. Strengthened measures to reduce high coronavirus cases in Wales | GOV.WALES

96. COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

97. Proposal for mandatory COVID certification in a Plan B scenario: call for evidence - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

98. Live Events Reinsurance Scheme - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

99. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 44 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). Estimates are based on businesses that have not permanently stopped trading, with more than 10 employees, and a presence in Scotland.

100. Events Industry defined here using the following SIC2007 codes:

5621 : Event catering activities

9001 : Performing arts

9002 : Support activities to performing arts

9004 : Operation of arts facilities

9311 : Operation of sports facilities

9312 : Activities of sport clubs

68202 : Letting and operating of conference and exhibition centres

74209 : Other photographic activities (not including portrait and other specialist photography and film processing)

79909 : Other reservation service activities (not including activities of tourist guides)

82301 : Activities of exhibition and fair organizers

82302 : Activities of conference organizers

93199 : Other sports activities (not including activities of racehorse owners)

101. Estimate based on a small sample size. This may result in a less precise estimate which should be used with caution.

102. Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2020, ONS

103. As per previous work for Nightclub related BRIAs (e.g. p54-71: The Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions and Requirements) (Local Levels) (Scotland) Regulations 2020 (legislation.gov.uk) –Nightclub businesses are defined here as non-charity licensed clubs (within Standard Industrial Classification code 56.301). Nightclubs and sexual entertainment businesses in Scotland fall under this classification. The SIC code definition of nightclubs used here does not align perfectly with the definition of nightclubs used in certification regulations. These statistics therefore represent a best estimate.

104. Night Time Industries Association (2021), Covid Status Certification: NTIA Scotland Briefing Paper

105. Coronavirus (COVID-19) domestic vaccine certification: business and regulatory impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

106. Scottish Government (2021). Coronavirus Fortnightly Tracker Weeks 66-79 – Data Tables from 29 June to 23 September 2021 (Question SG_302_rb_2 on 24-26 August).These figures exclude those who answered: 'Not applicable - would never visit such a venue/attend such an event anyway (20%)'.

107. Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c.1000 responses each week fieldwork is conducted. Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

108. COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report (publichealthscotland.scot) page 33.

109. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report, page 38