Heat in buildings strategy: strategic environmental assessment

5. Environmental Baseline

5.1 Introduction

5.1.1 Schedule 3 of the 2005 Act requires that the following be identified when undertaking an SEA:

• Relevant aspects of the current state of the environment and its likely evolution without implementation of the plan or programme.
• Environmental characteristics of areas likely to be affected.
• Relevant existing environmental problems.
• Relevant environmental protection objectives at the international, European or national level.

5.1.2 This section sets out a high level summary of the key environmental issues relevant to the draft Strategy. This is followed by a summary of how the environment is likely to evolve in the absence of the draft Strategy.

5.2 Climatic Factors

5.2.1 The global climate is changing. Since the 1880’s, human activity has led to a significant increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. This has resulted in an increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere and oceans; a reduction in snow and ice cover; and sea-level rise. In Scotland, the period 2008 – 2017 was an average of 0.7°C warmer than 1961 – 1990 and had fewer days of air and ground frost. An increase in precipitation (11%) has been observed for the same period. The amount of rain from extremely wet days across the UK has also increased by 17% with the biggest observed changes seen in Scotland.^[55]

5.2.2 In general, climate change projections suggest observed climate trends will continue to intensify in the future, including:

• an increase in both summer and winter average temperatures across both low and high emission scenarios;
• drier summers and wetter winters;
• an increase in the intensity of rainfall; and
• increased risk of flooding, drought, and extreme weather events.^[56]

5.2.3 A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in October 2018, predicts that the impacts and costs of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will be far greater than expected, and consequently much worse at 2°C^[57]. Further, the IPCC also reported that 1.5°C could be reached in as little as 11 years, and almost certainly within 20 years without major reductions in CO₂ emissions. Climate change trends such as increased risk of flooding can negatively impact energy infrastructure.

5.2.4 In 2018, the total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) emissions in Scotland were estimated to be 41.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e). The main contributors were the transport sector (excluding international) (12.9 MtCO₂e), business (8.4 MtCO₂e) agriculture (7.5 MtCO₂e), energy supply sector (6.8 MtCO₂e), and the residential sector (6.2 MtCO₂e). Relatively minor totals were reported for public sector buildings, development, and waste management. Forestry was a net carbon sink and contributed to reducing emissions by approximately 5.4 MtCO₂e in 2018^[58].

5.2.5 Between 1990 and 2018, there was a 45.4 per cent reduction in estimated emissions, a 34.6 MtCO₂e decrease. One of the most significant contributors to this overall reduction was the fall in energy supply emissions. Energy supply for electricity and heat was historically the biggest contribution to emissions, but has seen large changes over the period, reducing from 22.7 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 6.8 MtCO₂e in 2018 ( 70.1 per cent reduction). Overall Emissions reductions in this sector are mainly due to reductions in emissions from power stations and the complete cessation of coal use in electricity generation in Scotland. In addition, this long-term decrease has been due to a switch from less efficient solid and liquid fuels to natural gas for heating, and improvements in energy efficiency.

5.2.6 Climate change can also give rise to indirect impacts arising from mitigation and adaptation measures. For example energy efficiency and heat decarbonisation of Scotland’s homes and buildings contributes to meeting statutory climate change targets. However, individual technologies can have negative impacts such as localised visual effects, changes in landscape and land use, and impacts on biodiversity, water and air quality, amongst others.

5.2.7 Climate change has itself also been identified as a primary pressure on many of the SEA topic areas including soil, water, biodiversity, cultural heritage and the historic environment^[59].

Climatic Factors: Summary and Key Issues

• Observed climate change trends are likely to intensify in the future – wetter winters and drier summers with an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events and climate change can negatively impact energy infrastructure – e.g. through flooding.
• Key issues for climate change include greenhouse gas emissions from a range of sources, with energy supply and use of homes and buildings contributing to emissions.
• Climate change can also give rise to indirect effects arising from mitigation and adaptation measures.
• Climate change has also been identified as a primary pressure on many of the SEA topic areas

5.3 Population and human health

5.3.1 Scotland has a population of around 5.4 million people. Its population density is among the lowest in Europe^[60], although there is significant variation between highly urbanised areas in the Central Belt and rural and island areas including the Western Isles, the Highlands, and areas of Fife.^[61] By 2041, Scotland’s population is expected to rise to around 5.7 million.^[62]

5.3.2 Population and economic growth has increased energy demand globally^[63]. In Scotland, heat demand dropped by 18.6% from 2005-07 to 2016, but has risen by 1.4% in the last two years.^[64]

5.3.3 Life expectancy has generally been increasing in Scotland over the last 35 years. Since 1981, life expectancy has increased to 75.3 years and 77.1 years for males and females respectively. However, life expectancy in Scotland remains lower than the UK average and is the lowest of all UK constituent countries for both males and females.^[65]

5.3.4 The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), which identifies small concentrations of multiple deprivation across all of Scotland, shows that the 15% most deprived data zones in Scotland are located predominantly in urban areas, including Glasgow, Dundee, and Edinburgh.^[66]

5.3.5 Buildings account for around 21% of Scotland’s total greenhouse gas emissions^[67]. Around 81% of homes^[68] and approximately 30% of non- domestic buildings^[69] using mains gas for heating. Non-domestic mains gas accounts for a greater proportion of energy use in this sector. Currently gas supplied via the mains gas network is predominantly natural gas, a fossil fuel composed mainly of methane. Challenging weather, poor energy efficiency and reduced heating options (especially in rural areas) can contribute to making fuel bills unaffordable, resulting in fuel poverty.^[70]

5.3.6 Fuel poverty is affected by levels of household income, the price of fuel required for space and water heating, the energy efficiency of housing and the use of fuel in households. In 2019 an estimated 24.6% (around 613,000 households) of all households were in fuel poverty. This is similar to the 2018 fuel poverty rate of 25.0% (around 619,000 households) but lower than that recorded in the survey between 2012 and 2015. 12.4% (or 311,000 households, a subset of the 613,000 in fuel poverty) were living in extreme fuel poverty in 2019 which is similar to the 11.3% (279,000 households) in the previous year but a decrease from the peak of 16% (384,000 households) in 2013. The median fuel poverty gap (adjusted for 2015 prices) for fuel poor households in 2019 (£700) was higher than in 2018 (£610) but similar to the median gap in 2012 to 2017. Between 2018 and 2019, rates of fuel poverty increased in remote rural areas (from 33% to 43%), increasing the gap when comparing overall urban (24%) to overall rural areas (29%). Similarly, levels of extreme fuel poverty increased in remote rural areas (from 23% to 33%), meaning that extreme fuel poverty rates in rural areas (19%) were higher than in urban areas (11%). This increase reflects the high proportion of rural households which use electricity and other fuel types (such as solid mineral fuels) as their primary fuel type and the associated increase in fuel prices for these fuel types between 2018 and 2019. Levels of fuel poverty among households using electricity as their primary heating fuel have remained the highest, at 43%, compared to households using gas (22%), oil (28%) and other fuel types (31%) as their primary heating fuel in 2019 ^[71]

5.3.7 Work to eradicate fuel poverty is linked to the Scottish Government’s work to improve housing standards, and this has been considered as part of the Fuel Poverty (Target, Definition and Strategy) (Scotland) Act^[72]and the draft Fuel Poverty Strategy for Scotland 2018 ^[73].

5.3.8 Flooding can have significant environmental impacts and can also affect people, communities and businesses. When floods occur they disrupt day-to-day lives and their impacts can be long lasting. Climate change is expected to increase the risk of flooding, and it also brings additional risks to human health posed by changes to air quality and rising temperatures.^[74]

5.3.9 The potential impacts of climate change on population and human health will not be evenly spread^[75]. For example, pockets of dense urban development will be more at risk from surface water flooding and summer heat stress. In addition the effects to human health form climate change may have the greatest impact on vulnerable people. Negative health impacts are likely to be disproportionately severe in areas of high deprivation because of the reduced ability of individuals and communities in these areas to prepare, respond and recover.^[76]

^{POPULATION AND HUMAN HEALTH: SUMMARY AND KEY ISSUES}

• Scotland’s population is growing and Scotland has experienced a small increase in heat demand in recent years.
• Heat in buildings accounts for approximately a fifth of Scotland’s GHG emissions.
• Challenging weather, poor energy efficiency and reduced heating options (especially in rural areas) can make fuel bills unaffordable, resulting in fuel poverty.
• The potential impacts of climate change on population and human health will not be evenly spread. ( e.g. negative health impacts are likely to be disproportionately severe in area of high deprivation).

5.4 Air

5.4.1 Air quality is affected by pollutants released into the atmosphere through human activity as well as from natural sources. Urban air quality has improved significantly since the 1950s. Emissions of the eight main air pollutants are lower in 2017 than they were in 1990. This rate of decline is relatively similar for particulate matter (PM10 and 2.5), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and carbon monoxide (CO). Lead (Pb) shows a much higher rate of reduction from 1990 to 2000 coinciding with the phase-out of leaded petrol from 2000, while ammonia (NH₃) emissions have declined at a slower rate than other pollutants^[77]. Despite this, in certain areas, poor air quality continues to negatively affect human health and the environment.

5.4.2 In regard to the domestic environment, since 2005 there has been an increase in emissions from the domestic sector due to an increase in popularity of open fires and wood burning stoves^[78]. Approximately 38% of UK primary particulate matter emissions come from burning wood and coal in domestic open fires and solid fuel stoves. This compares with industrial combustion (16%) and road transport (12%)^[79].

5.4.3 Air pollution can contribute to a number of health problems and climate change may exacerbate these issues and alter current patterns and concentrations of air pollution. For example, air pollution can lead to and exacerbate existing health problems such as respiratory conditions, and lead to reduced life expectancy.^[80]

5.4.4 Where air standards are not being met, local authorities in Scotland have set up Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) to help reduce pollution. There are currently 38 AQMAs across Scotland’s 32 Local Authorities and these have been established primarily as a result of road traffic emissions. Between 1990 and 2015 there have been reductions in emissions across all pollutants including ammonia (10%), PM₁₀ (63%), NMVOC (66%), nitrogen oxides (71%), carbon monoxide (83%), sulphur dioxide (92%) and lead (99%). The majority of these are declared in urban areas and primarily as a result of traffic emissions.^[81]

5.4.5 Key issues for air include emissions from a number of sectors leading to air pollution, with air quality contributing to a number of health problems. Air quality and GHG emissions are intrinsically linked as they both arise from broadly the same sources. Measures that seek to reduce emissions from buildings such as from improved energy efficiency and heat decarbonisation, have the potential to broadly contribute to improved air quality.

Air: Summary And Key Issues

• Whilst air quality has improved significantly, poor air quality in certain areas continues to affect human health and the environment
• Air pollution can contribute to a number of health problems and climate change may exacerbate these issues and alter current patterns and concentrations.
• Key issues for air include emissions from a number of sectors leading to air pollution with air quality and GHG emissions intrinsically linked as they both arise from broadly the same sources.
• Measures that seek to reduce emissions from buildings such as from improved energy efficiency and heat decarbonisation , have the potential to broadly contribute to improved air quality

5.5 Material assets

Energy, development and infrastructure

5.5.1 Heat (in buildings and industry) makes up approximately half of Scotland’s energy consumption (52%) with transport (24.4%) and electricity (23.5%) making up approximately a quarter each. A breakdown by sector of non-transport energy consumption shows that 58.1% is accounted for by industrial and commercial sectors, with 41.9% consumed domestically. Domestic consumption of electricity and heat dropped by 20.1% in 2016, with energy consumption in transport decreasing by 2.7%. It is estimated that 20% of Scotland’s total energy consumption in 2017 came from renewable sources; the highest level to date and an increase from 16% in 2016. This is attributed to an increase in installed capacity for renewable electricity and heat in 2016. In 2018, provisional figures indicate that the equivalent of 74.6% of gross electricity consumption was from reviewable sources, rising from 70.3% in 2017.^[82]

5.5.2 There have been significant changes to the electricity generation mix in recent years with the vast majority of the electricity that Scotland generated from low carbon sources. In turn, fossil fuel generation is at its lowest level, with just 10.5% of all electricity generated from oil and gas, compared to 48.4% in 2010. In 2019, useful renewable heat generated in Scotland was equivalent to 6.5% of the fuel consumed for non-electrical heat demand, an increase from 6.2% in 2018 and from 0.9% in 2008.^[83]

5.5.3 Infrastructure will play a key role in ensuring security of supply and decarbonising our energy systems in the most cost effective, affordable way. Energy storage is likely to be an increasingly important part of the transition to delivering clean, affordable and secure supplies of energy^[84].

5.5.4 Support for energy efficiency and heat decarbonisation as a means to deliver emission reductions from Scotland’s homes and buildings is likely to require new or expanded infrastructure at a range of scales.

Land Use

5.5.5 Key land uses in Scotland include agriculture and forestry, covering over 75% of Scotland’s land mass^[85],[86].

5.5.6 Intensive land management practices, such as the use of high levels of fertilisers and pesticides, is one of the key pressures on land with a shift toward intensification having the possibility to lead to negative impacts across a number of topics including biodiversity^[87] and soil^[88].

In the context of heat generation, effects will depend on the scale of technology deployment and type of technology used. Whilst recognised that bioenergy, in particular bio heating oil, bioLPG and biomass may represent the only practicable option for heat decarbonisation for a small number of buildings, in principle, an increase in use of bioenergy to supply heat (or fuels for heat) could result in land take for the production of energy crops.

Material Assets: Summary And Key Issues

• Today, heat is responsible for approximately half of Scotland’s energy use and buildings/infrastructure will be an important underpinning for heat decarbonisation.
• Key issues for material assets include those associated with development and infrastructure and pressure on land use.
• Any changes in land use required to meet climate change targets could also have environmental effects.

5.6 Landscape

5.6.1 Rich in diversity, Scotland's landscapes are internationally renowned. Scotland's distinctive landscapes are a significant part of the country’s natural and cultural heritage, and make a significant contribution to both the country’s economic performance and the well-being of its people. Scotland’s landscapes play a key role in attracting tourism, affording opportunities for business and providing the setting for outdoor recreation.

5.6.2 The European Landscape Convention^[89] establishes the principles for landscape work in Scotland. This highlights that all landscapes matter, they are a shared asset for all, and that people and communities should be involved in decisions affecting their landscapes. NatureScot’s Landscape Character Assessment dataset^[90] also recognises that much of our valued landscape resource is out-with protected areas.

5.6.3 Scotland’s landscapes are constantly changing and evolving in response to both natural processes and the changing demands of society. Regional and local landscapes are becoming less distinct as a result of more similarity in building form, settlement patterns, and agricultural practices with pressures also arising from renewable and other low and zero emissions energy technologies. Similarly, in agriculture there has been a focus on maximising yields which has resulted in a move towards a monoculture, at the expense of a more diverse landscape of field types and hedgerows^[91]. Changes in landscape tend to occur over long periods of time, and gradual change, as a result of development such as housing, and changes in farming and forestry practice, can be difficult to determine^[92].

5.6.4 Climate change is expected to lead to extensive landscape change across Scotland with the greatest changes likely to occur in lowland and coastal areas where human population is highest. Direct impacts are likely as a result of changing temperatures and patterns of precipitation, weather events, and sea-level change. However, mitigation and adaptation measures are expected to have a greater influence on both Scotland's landscapes and quality of life than the direct effects of climate change^[93].

5.6.5 For example, while the decarbonisation of heat is crucial to meeting Scotland’s emissions reduction targets, individual technologies have the potential for environmental impacts dependant on the scale and location of their development and deployment.

5.6.6 Key issues related to heat decarbonisation include the development and deployment of technologies, such as those associated with biomass technologies, and new infrastructure. Dependant on the scale of deployment and type of technology used, these have the potential to alter the distinctive character of existing landscape settings – both within the urban environment and beyond.

Landscape: Summary and Key Issues

• Scotland has numerous designated landscapes and other landscapes areas of value and quality and changes in land use and development can affect these.
• Key issues include the potential for direct and indirect impacts on landscapes associated with the development and deployment of technologies and new infrastructure associated with heat decarbonisation.

5.7 Cultural and historic heritage

5.7.1 Scotland’s many and varied historical sites are unique and irreplaceable. These sites and features are regarded as making a valuable contribution to our quality of life, cultural identity, education and economy. While these assets are distributed widely throughout Scotland, there are clusters of sites in and around our settlements and also around our coastlines.

5.7.2 Some parts of Scotland’s historic environment are protected through a process of designation. The process aims to identify parts of the historic environment for their significance and enhance their protection. As of 2016, it is estimated that around 5-10% of the historic environment is designated^[94].

5.7.3 Designated assets currently include World Heritage Sites, listed buildings, scheduled monuments, conservation areas and Historic Marine Protected Areas. However, whilst most of the historic environment is undesignated (90-95%), these known but undesignated assets provide important contextual information which helps us better understand designated sites. Scotland’s historic environment resonates internationally and nationally, as well as being culturally important to local communities.

5.7.4 Development is a key pressure on the historic environment and cultural heritage, both directly in terms of damage to known and unknown features, and the potential for impacts on setting. Other known pressures include changing land use and land management, such as through the installation of infrastructure such as pipelines; as well as pressure from tourism/visitors, and climate change^[95]. An example of these pressures is development associated with the installation and operation of fabric first energy efficiency measures, technologies such as heat pumps as well as any land management change associated with bioenergy. Climate change related impacts include damage to masonry, risk of dampness, condensation and fungal growth, vegetation growth, and accelerated decay. Historic landscapes and sites within the coastal zone are particularly vulnerable and this and these threats are likely to grow in the future, given the future predictions of the likely effects of global warming and climate change for the remainder of this century. Action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change are also likely to have a significant effect.

Cultural Heritage: Summary and Key Issues

• Scotland’s many and varied historical sites are unique and irreplaceable.
• Development is a key pressure on the historic environment and cultural heritage, both directly in terms of damage to known and unknown features, and possible impacts on setting.

5.8 Likely evolution of the environment without implementation of the draft Strategy

5.8.1 The draft Strategy has a key role to play through ensuring that sufficient actions are in place to support heat decarbonisation and energy efficiency of Scotland’s homes and buildings in order to contribute to statutory climate change targets.

5.8.2 The draft Strategy will support the acceleration of GHG emissions reductions associated with Scotland’s homes and buildings in line with ambitious climate change targets. In the absence of the draft Strategy heat decarbonisation of homes and buildings might continue along observed trends meaning that decarbonising heat will take longer and will not be in line with the required pathway for reducing emissions in buildings as set out in the Update to the Climate Change Plan.