High Level Summary of Statistics: Key Trends for Scotland 2006

1. Economy

Gross Domestic Product

Latest GDP trends

In the last year, the Scottish economy grew by 1.8%, with growth in the fourth quarter of 2005 of 0.6%. Over 2005, output in the Scottish service sector grew by 2.8%, compared with a 2.0% decrease in production and a 1.3% rise in construction.

In the fourth quarter of 2005, the service sector grew by 0.7%, the construction sector rose by 2.1% and the production sector remained constant.

Headline figures for the UK as a whole mirror the Scottish position, overall GDP rose by 1.8% over the year 2005 and by 0.6% over the latest quarter. In 2005, the UK experienced a 2.8% growth in services, a 1.9% decline in production and 1.1% growth in construction.

Source: Gross Domestic Product, Scottish Executive

GDP Longer Trends

Scottish growth over the period 1975-2005 is lower than that of the UK at 1.8% per year compared to 2.3% per year.

Over the period 1975-2005 Scotland's service sector has average annual growth of 2.5%, compared to growth of 0.5% in production and 0.9% in construction.

Over the same period the UK's service sector has average annual growth of 2.8%, compared to growth of 1.2% in production and 1.9% in construction.

Web link
Quarterly Scottish Gross Domestic Product Index

Industrial Analyses (Input-Output)

Gross Value Added at basic prices by industry

Input-Output tables provide a complete picture of the flows of products and services in the economy for a given year, illustrating the relationship between producers and consumers and the interdependencies of industries.

An analysis of eleven broad industrial sectors shows that in 2002, the financial intermediation and other business services sector provided the largest contribution to gross value added at current basic prices, at £18.1 billion out of a total of £74.1 billion. The manufacturing sector contributed £11.9 billion and the distribution and catering sectors £11.5 billion.

Source: FISIM: Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured

Final Demand

In 2002, 41% of all goods and services entering into final demand were purchased by consumers, 33% were exported and 16% were consumed by central and local government. Gross capital formation by all sectors of the economy was 10% of total final demand.

Source: Scottish Executive Input Output Tables

Compensation of Employees by industry

The education, health and social work sector showed the highest level of compensation of employees (total renuneration in cash or in kind, including the value of social contributions payable by the employer) in 2002 at £9.7 billion. Manufacturing showed the second highest compensation of employees at £8.5 billion followed by the financial intermediation and other business services sector at £7.9 billion.

Source: FISIM: Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured.

Publication
Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland 2002 (Published 2005)

Web link
Input Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland

Exports

Export data for the period 2003 and 2004 show that total exports from Scotland totalled £17.5 billion in 2004, a reduction of £0.6 billion since 2003, with exports to the EU reduced by £0.4 billion.

In 2004, the top destination for exports was the USA, which accounted for an estimated £2.6 billion (16% of total exports). The USA, Netherlands, Germany, France and Spain are the top 5 markets for Scottish exporters, and together they account for 45% of the total exports (further data are available from the Global Connections Survey). The rise in exports to the US from £2.1 billion in 2003 to £2.6 billion in 2004 can mainly be attributed to strong American domestic demand in 2004. Conversely, exports to both France and Germany experienced a marginal decline, largely due to subdued domestic demand in these economies.

However, it should be noted that the reduction in the value of exports to the traditional Scottish export markets within the EU was partially offset by an increase of £0.3 billion to Asia. This is consistent with the emergence of new export markets in the economies of China and India. Indeed, India was in the top 20 export destinations (18 ^th).

Source: Scottish Executive

Web link
Global Connections Survey

Manufactured Exports

Scottish manufactured export sales grew by 1.9% in real terms in 2005 Q4 (seasonally adjusted) but decreased by 1.8% over the year 2005. Over the year, electronics was the main driver of the decline in export sales with an annual fall of 11%. Also contributing to the annual decline, but to a lesser extent, were chemicals (-4.7%), food and tobacco (-3.9%) and textiles, fur and leather (-3.9%), all other industries grew over the year. Excluding the electronics industry, manufactured exports rose by 1.6% in 2005 Q4 (seasonally adjusted) and increased by 3.5% over the year 2005.

Since the peak at the end of 2000, the level of manufactured export sales has fallen by 36.0% in real terms. This represents an average quarterly decline of 2.2%. Electronics has fallen by 65.5% since 2000 Q4 and is the primary driver of the decline in overall exports over the last five years. Sustained reductions in export sales have also been seen in textiles, fur and leather (-22%). Other industries, such as transport equipment and food & drink have increased exports over this period. If the electronics industry is excluded from the calculation, all other published industries have grown by around 9.7% since 2000.

Source: Scottish Executive

Web link
Index of Manufactured Exports