Housing to 2040

02 Looking Ahead

In 2018, we published a discussion paper^[18] and a supporting evidence paper^[19], setting out the context for Housing to 2040 and the challenges we face. These included child poverty, climate change and an ageing population.

In 2019, through further consultation and engagement, we sought people's views on a draft Vision and set of Principles and suggestions for how to make them a reality.^[20] This set out more detail on the drivers of change that will impact the housing system over the next twenty years, including population and health (including an ageing population across the country and depopulation in some rural areas), technology, energy and climate change.^[21]

Alongside that consultation, we supported a mobile housing exhibition across Scotland to engage with communities. The housing exhibition provided a place for conversations on Housing to 2040 and involved 350 young people from 12 communities across Scotland. Over 750 people viewed the exhibition with almost 400 participating in workshops.^[22]

Now, in 2021, many of those challenges and drivers of change remain the same but we must also contend with the impact of the UK's decision to leave the EU and respond to and recover from the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The scale of the investment needed to deliver the Housing to 2040 vision means that we need to think and do things differently – this applies to Government, the public sector, the private sector and individual householders across Scotland. The costs involved in two key areas give an indication of the financial challenge ahead. The total cost of delivering our ambition of 100,000 affordable homes by 2032 could be in the region of £16 billion.^[23] Meanwhile, our draft Heat and Buildings Strategy estimates that the cost of undertaking energy efficiency upgrades and installing low carbon heating systems to decarbonise our building stock could be in the region of £33 billion over the period to 2045^[24], and the bulk of these costs will relate to our homes.

Taking forward Housing to 2040

There was a great deal of consensus amongst different stakeholders who responded to our consultation. Our assessment of the major challenges facing Scotland's housing system was confirmed and the draft Vision and Principles were well supported and praised for being ambitious and comprehensive. We have made changes to the Vision and Principles based on that feedback, and stakeholders' ideas on what we should aim for and how we should seek to achieve it have been central to the development of the route map.

For example, a right to an adequate home is now central. And we have made sure that the important role our homes play in tackling the global climate emergency comes through clearly.

Our route map highlights how we want all homes to be digitally connected and have easy access to quality green space, services and public transport links – there will be no barriers to walking, wheeling or cycling and there will be easy access to learning, health services and employment opportunities.

We show how we want our homes to be part of strong local communities, where the people who live there are able to influence the decisions made about their area and can live well locally.

And no matter whether new or existing, our vision is that all homes will be warm, affordable to heat, and will reduce direct emissions from their heating to zero. New homes will be well designed and constructed and will be able to be adapted for the future. High standards of repair and maintenance will ensure older homes meet these ambitions too.

In short, our aim is that, by 2040, everyone will have a safe, high-quality home that is affordable and meets their needs in the place they want to be.

The Housing to 2040 Vision sets out what we are aiming for and this route map shows us how we will get there. We are beginning from a strong foundation too.

The route map is set out across four parts, aligned to the main areas of feedback we received from stakeholders during consultation.

Part 1 – More homes at the heart of great places

Part 2 – Affordability and choice

Part 3 – Affordable warmth and zero emissions homes

Part 4 – Improving the quality of all homes

A full set of the Vision and Principles for Housing to 2040 can be found published alongside this document^[25]. The key areas in which respondents called for action and made proposals for the route map can be found in Annex A.^[26]