Housing statistics quarterly update: June 2019

New Build Housing – Private-led – up to end December 2018

The private sector is the biggest contributor to overall house building, accounting for three quarters (75%) of all homes completed in the 12 months to end December 2018.

Chart 5: Annual private secotr led new build start and completions, years to end December, 2007 to 2008

Chart 6: Quartely new build starts and completions (private-led), since 2007 up to end December 2018

Trends since 2007 – private sector

In 2007 (year to end December) the number of private sector homes started was just over 20,600, while completions were just under 21,700. Private sector led new build housing was hit particularly hard by the recession. The number of homes completed dropped steeply between 2007 and 2009 then continued to decrease more gradually to just under 10,000 in 2012. Since then, the number of homes completed has increased each year apart from 2016, bringing completions to just over 15,150 in the year to end December 2018.

In September 2013 the Scottish Government introduced the Help to Buy (Scotland) scheme which has aimed to support buyers purchasing a new build home and to stimulate the house building industry. Following this, the Help to Buy (Scotland) Affordable New Build and Help to Buy (Scotland) Smaller Developers schemes were launched on 21 January 2016. Further information on the schemes, along with monitoring information setting out numbers of sales, is available at http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Built-Environment/Housing/BuyingSelling/help-to-buy.

Trends to end December 2018 – private sector

Between October and December 2018, 4,551 private sector led homes were completed; 41% more (1,328 homes) than the same quarter in 2017. This brings the total for the year to end December 2018 to 15,152 which is 11% more (1,491 homes)than the 13,661 completions in the previous year.

There were 4,868 private sector led starts between October 2018 and December 2018, 51% more (1,651 homes) than the same quarter in 2017. This brings the total for the year ending December 2018 to 14,997 which is 9% more (1,277 homes) than the 13,720 starts in the previous year.

Sub-national figures for the year to end December 2018 – private sector

Map B shows the rates per 10,000 head of population (based on the latest mid-2017 population estimates) of private sector led new build completions in each local authority for the year to end December 2018.

The highest completion rates have been in Midlothian, East Lothian, Renfrewshire, Orkney Islands and Highland. The lowest rates meanwhile, have been in Argyll & Bute, Dumfries & Galloway, Dundee and Glasgow.

Map B: New build housing - Private Sector completions: rates per 10,000 population, year to end December 2018

New Build Housing – Social Sector

Social sector housing consists of local authority and housing association housing, and has accounted for just over a quarter of all new build homes completed over the 12 months to end December 2018. Social sector figures are collected a quarter ahead of those for the private sector meaning that figures are available up to the end of March 2019. However, to enable easier understanding of how each sector contributes to the all sector totals described previously, figures are also presented for the same time period to end December (although quarterly charts include the latest quarter’s data).

The more up-to-date figures for the social sector are presented later in this section.

Chart 7a: Housing Association and Local Authority new build starts and completions, years to end December 2007 to 2018

Chart 7b: Housing Association and Local Authority new build starts and completions, years to end march 2009 to 2019

Chart 8: Quartely new build approvals and completions (Housing Association) since 2007 up to end March 2019

Trends since 2007 – social sector

Chart 7a shows the number of local authority and housing association homes started and completed each year (to end December 2018) since 2007, whilst Chart 7b shows the same information but up to end March 2019 (the most recent information available). Charts 8 and 9 show quarterly figures for housing associations and local authorities, respectively.

Chart 9: Quartely new build starts and completions (Local Authority) since 2007 up to end March 2019

Trends since 2007 – social sector

Social sector house building has not followed the same pattern as the private sector over time as the number of homes being built did not suddenly drop in 2008 following the recession.

Between 2007 and 2009 (years to end December) the number of housing association completions increased from just over 4,000 to just over 5,800. Completions then decreased from just over 5,100 in 2010 to just under 2,500 in 2017, before increasing in the latest year to over 3,800 in 2018.

The number of housing association approvals meanwhile decreased from just over 6,500 in 2009 to just over 2,200 in 2011 (years to end December). The figures have then increased each year to just under 5,600 in 2018.

The number of local authority homes built increased from just under 1,000 homes in 2007 up to just over 1,400 in 2009 (years to end December). Completions then fell by almost two thirds between 2009 and 2010 to total around 500 homes in 2010, before increasing to over 1,200 in 2013. Completions decreased slightly in 2013 and 2014 before increasing each year between 2015 2017 to just over 1,400, and finally decreasing to 1,280 in 2018. Local Authority housing has accounted for 6% of the total amount of new build homes completed across all sectors in the 12 months to end December 2018.

Trends to end December 2018 – social sector

There were 1,002 social sector completions between October 2018 and December 2018; 3% (33 homes) more than the same quarter in 2017. This brings the total for the year to end December 2018 to 5,103. This is a 30% increase (1,178 homes) on the 3,925 social sector completions in the previous year.

Meanwhile, 1,784 social sector homes were started between October 2018 and December 2018; 44% more than in the same quarter in 2017. This brings the total for the year to end December 2018 to 7,261. This is a 23% (1,344) increase on the 5,917 social sector starts in the previous year.

Sub-national figures for the year to end December 2018 – social sector

Maps C and D show the rates of housing association and local authority new build completions in each local authority for the year to end December 2018 per 10,000 of the population (based on the latest mid-2017 population estimates). The housing stock of 6 local authorities (Argyll & Bute, Dumfries & Galloway, Glasgow, Inverclyde, Na h-Eileanan Siar and Scottish Borders) has been transferred to housing associations and so these areas do not build new local authority houses.

In the year to end December 2018 rates of housing association new build completions were highest in Orkney Islands, North Ayrshire, Scottish Borders, Inverclyde and Glasgow, whilst the lowest rates were of completion were in West Lothian, Na h-Eileanan Siar, Falkirk and Angus.

Meanwhile local authority new build rates were highest in West Lothian, East Ayrshire, Moray, Perth & Kinross and Aberdeen City. As well as the 6 stock transfer authorities mentioned above, South Ayrshire, East Renfrewshire, Clackmannanshire, Falkirk, East Dunbartonshire, Shetland Islands, Orkney Islands, Renfrewshire and Midlothian had no completions in the year ending December 2018.

Latest data to end March 2019 – social sector

A total of 2,174 social sector homes were completed between January and March 2019, 28% more than the 1,695 completions in the same quarter in 2018. This brings the total completions for the 12 months to end March 2019 to 5,582, a 22% increase on the 4,594 social sector homes completed in the previous year. The increase in the 12 months to end March 2019 is due to an increase in Housing Association led completions, which increased by 33% (1,039 homes).

Meanwhile, 2,837 social sector homes were started between January and March 2019. This is an decrease of 16%compared to the same quarter in the previous year. This brings the total for the 12 months to end March 2019 to 6,727which is a 11% increase (643 homes) on the 6,084 starts in the previous year. The increase in the 12 months to end March 2019 is due to a 37% (515 homes) increase in Local Authority starts and a 3% (128 homes) increase in Housing Association led approvals.

Map C: New build housing - Local Authority Sector completions: rates per 10,000 population, year to end December 2018

Map D: New build housing - Housing Association Secotr completions: rates per 10,000 population, year to end December 2018