Housing statistics quarterly update: March 2022

6. Affordable housing supply

Chart 11 below shows that the numbers of affordable homes approved and started have decreased on an annual basis over the latest year to end December 2021, but the number of completions has increased over the same time period. In the year to end December 2021, 8,398 affordable homes were approved, a decrease of 1,763 homes (17%) on the previous year, and 9,679 homes were started, a decrease of 453 homes (4%). A total of 9,211 homes were completed, an increase of 2,412 homes (35%).

Table 6 below shows that in the latest quarter October to December 2021, 1,892 homes were approved, 1,897 homes were started, and 2,159 homes were completed. The levels of approvals and starts are lower than in the same period in the previous year, with approvals being 9% (194 homes) lower and starts being 16% (355 homes) lower than in October to December 2020. The 2,159 completions in October to December 2021 is 12% (227 homes) more than in October to December 2020.

Over the latest year to end December 2021, the number of homes approved and started in the year to December 2021 fell by 17% (1,763 homes) to 8,398 approvals and 4% (453 homes) to 9,679 starts, compared with the year to end December 2020. However completions have increased by 35% (2,412 homes) in the year to end December 2021 compared to the previous year.

Table 6 – Affordable Housing Supply to December 2021

Affordable housing supply homes	Approvals	Starts	Completions
Quarter Oct to Dec 2015	2,053	1,969	1,362
Quarter Oct to Dec 2016	2,522	1,794	1,431
Quarter Oct to Dec 2017	1,733	2,870	1,909
Quarter Oct to Dec 2018	2,703	2,528	2,117
Quarter Oct to Dec 2019	3,132	2,494	2,461
Quarter Oct to Dec 2020	2,086	2,252	1,932
Quarter Oct to Dec 2021	1,892	1,897	2,159
Change over latest year	-194	-355	+227
Change (%) over latest year	-9%	-16%	+12%
Year to Dec 2015	7,392	6,705	7,163
Year to Dec 2016	9,037	8,471	7,346
Year to Dec 2017	10,281	11,068	7,505
Year to Dec 2018	12,545	10,385	9,189
Year to Dec 2019	11,830	10,972	9,501
Year to Dec 2020	10,161	10,132	6,799
Year to Dec 2021	8,398	9,679	9,211
Change over latest year	-1,763	-453	+2,412
Change (%) over latest year	-17%	-4%	+35%

Charts 12a to 12c below present quarterly trends in the number of approvals, starts and completions from January 2018 up to end December 2021.

Charts 13 to 15 below present information on trends in affordable housing supply by type. Chart 13 shows that total affordable housing supply programme approvals decreased by 17% between 2020 and 2021 (years to end December). In the latest year 2021, social rent approvals accounted for 76% of all approvals, with affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 10% and 13%, respectively.

In the year to end December 2021, there were 6,421 homes approved for social rent, a decrease of 20% (1,576 homes) on the same period in 2020. There were 879 approvals for affordable rent, a decrease of 26% (311 homes), and 1,098 homes were approved for affordable home ownership, an increase of 13% (124 homes).

Chart 14 illustrates that total affordable housing supply programme starts decreased by 4% between 2020 and 2021 (years to end December). In the latest year, social rent starts accounted for 73% of all starts, with affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 14% and 13% of the total, respectively.

In the year to end December 2021, there were 7,103 starts for social rent, a decrease of 10% (783 homes) on the previous year. There were 1,362 homes started for affordable rent, a drop of 2% (31 homes), and 1,214 homes were started for affordable home ownership, an increase of 42% (361 homes).

Chart 15 shows that total affordable housing supply programme completions increased by 35% between 2020 and 2021 (years to end December). In the latest year, social rent completions accounted for 72% of all completions, with affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 15% and 14% of the total.

In the year to end December 2021, there were 6,606 homes completed for social rent, an increase of 26% (1,353 homes) on the previous year. There were 1,343 affordable rent homes completed, more than double (683 homes) the previous year, and 1,262 homes completed for affordable home ownership, an increase of 42% (376 homes).

It should be noted that Affordable Housing Supply Programme statistics reflect the broader supply of affordable homes (i.e. for social rent, affordable rent and affordable home ownership) and include off the shelf purchases and rehabilitations as well as new builds. Statistics are available up to the end of December 2021.

Quarterly affordable housing supply statistics are used to inform progress against Scottish Government affordable housing delivery targets, including to deliver the remaining 50,000 target homes as quickly as it is safe to do so over the year 2021/22, along with the longer term ambition to deliver 110,000 affordable homes by 2032, of which at least 70% will be for social rent and 10% will be in remote, rural and island communities. The statistics reflect the number of affordable homes delivered that have received some form of government support through loans, grant or guarantees.

Approvals, starts and completions are all measured for the Affordable Housing Supply Programme. Approval is the point at which funding is granted. Starts are recorded when an on-site presence is established to progress site work. Completion measures when the units are delivered and ready for occupation.

Social Rent includes Housing Association Rent, Council House Rent as well as Home Owner Support Fund Rent.

Affordable Rent includes Mid-Market Rent (MMR), National Housing Trust (NHT) Rent as well as other programmes such as the Empty Homes Loan Fund (EHLF) and Rural Homes for Rent (RHfR).

Affordable Home Ownership includes Open Market Shared Equity (OMSE), New Supply Shared Equity (NSSE), Shared Ownership (LCHO) as well as other programmes such as Home Owner Support Fund Shared Equity.

Chart 16 below illustrates how affordable housing supply figures per 10,000 population have varied on a financial year basis across the 2007/08 to 2020/21 period for Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Across the 14 years between 2007/08 and 2020/21, the annual average supply of affordable housing per head of population in Scotland has been 13.6 homes per 10,000 population, higher than England (9.6 homes per 10,000 population), Wales (8.0 homes per 10,000 population), and Northern Ireland (13.0 homes per 10,000 population – average across the years 2010/11 to 2020/21). Scotland has had a higher rate of supply than all other UK countries across each year 2015/16 to 2019/20, although the rate has dropped below the rate for Northern Ireland in the latest year 2020/21.

The 6,477 affordable homes completed in Scotland in the latest financial year 2020/21 equates to a rate of 11.8 homes delivered per 10,000 population. This is above the rate of 9.2 in England, is similar to the rate of 11.4 in Wales, and is below the rate of 13.4 in Northern Ireland.

In addition to the differences in total affordable supply between each country, there are also some differences in the use of different affordable housing products within the mix of overall affordable housing in each country. For example, in England in recent years there has been a greater use of affordable / intermediate rent compared to social rent. Therefore when looking over the four years to 2020/21, in England there have been on average 4.8 affordable / intermediate rent homes completed per 10,000 head of population and 1.1 social rented homes completed 10,000 per-head of population. This compares to a rate of 1.8 for affordable rent homes and a rate of 10.8 for social rented homes in Scotland.

Note that the statistics for England and Wales both include developer-funded Section 106 supply, although for England it is thought that some will be missed as local authorities are not aware of it all. Northern Ireland does not currently have an equivalent mechanism. Data for Scotland include Section 75 units receiving some form of government funding. Data are not available to estimate the number of affordable homes delivered without central government funding in Scotland, but it is thought that the numbers of these homes may be relatively low based on current estimates of the number of funded Affordable and Section 75 homes being delivered.