Housing statistics quarterly update: September 2019

New Build Housing – Social Sector

Social sector housing consists of local authority and housing association housing, and has accounted for just over a quarter of all new build homes completed over the 12 months to end March 2019. Social sector figures are collected a quarter ahead of those for the private sector meaning that figures are available up to the end of June 2019. However, to enable easier understanding of how each sector contributes to the all sector totals described previously, figures are also presented for the same time period to end March (although quarterly charts include the latest quarter's data).

The more up-to-date figures for the social sector are presented later in this section.

Chart 7a: Annual Housing Association starts and completions have been at higher levels than Local Authority starts and completions in each year since 2007, with some varying trends across this period (years to end March)

Chart 7b: Housing Association and Local Authority new build starts and completions, years to end March, 2007 to 2019

Chart 8: Quarterly Housing Association new build approvals show some quarterly volatility, with Q1 (Jan to Mar) typically seeing the highest numbers in each year

Chart 9: Quarterly Local Authority new build starts and completions also show some quarterly volatility, but with less clear annual seasonality patterns

Trends since 2007 – social sector

Chart 7a shows the number of local authority and housing association homes started and completed each year (to end March) since 2007, whilst Chart 7b shows the same information but up to end June (the most recent information available). Charts 8 and 9 show quarterly figures for housing associations and local authorities, respectively.

Social sector house building has not followed the same pattern as the private sector over time as the number of homes being built did not suddenly drop in 2008 following the recession.

Between 2008 and 2010 (years to end March) the number of housing association completions increased from just over 4,000 to just under 5,600. Completions then decreased each year to just over 2,900 in 2014, before increasing to just under 3,100 in 2015. Completions then decreased in the following year to just over 2,300 in 2016. In the last three years, completions have increased to just over 4,100 in 2019.

The number of housing association approvals meanwhile decreased from just under 5,800 in 2008 to just over 1,600 in 2013 (years to end March). The figures then increased overall and are at just over 4,800 in 2019.

The number of local authority homes built has gradually increased from just 28 homes in 2008 up to just over 1,100 in 2012 (years to end March). Completions were then broadly flat until 2017, but have since increased to just over 1,400 in 2019. Local Authority housing has accounted for 7% of the total amount of new build homes completed across all sectors in the 12 months to end March 2019.

Trends to end March 2019 – social sector

There were 2,174 social sector completions between January and March 2019; 28% more than the same quarter in 2018. This brings the total for the year to end March 2019 to 5,582. This is a 22% increase on the 4,592 social sector completions in the previous year.

Meanwhile, 2,837 social sector homes were started between January and March 2019; 16% less than the same quarter in 2018. This brings the total for the year to end March 2019 to 6,719. This is a 10% increase on the 6,084 social sector starts in the previous year.

Sub-national figures for the year to end March 2019 – social sector

Maps C and D show the rates of housing association and local authority new build completions in each local authority for the year to end March 2019 per 10,000 of the population (based on the latest mid-2018 population estimates). The housing stock of 6 local authorities (Argyll & Bute, Dumfries & Galloway, Glasgow, Inverclyde, Na h-Eileanan Siar and Scottish Borders) has been transferred to housing associations and so these areas do not build new local authority houses.

In the year to end March 2019 rates of housing association new build completions were highest in Scottish Borders, Midlothian, Orkney Islands and Glasgow City, whilst the lowest rates of housing association new build were in Falkirk, East Renfrewshire, Moray and West Lothian.

Meanwhile local authority new build rates were highest in West Lothian, Moray. Perth & Kinross, North Ayrshire and Aberdeen City. As well as the 6 stock transfer authorities mentioned above, East Dunbartonshire, Clackmannanshire, Shetland Islands, Stirling, Renfrewshire, South Ayrshire, Orkney and Midlothian built no new homes in the year ending March 2019.

Latest data to end June 2019 – social sector

A total of 856 social sector homes were completed between April and June 2019, 19% less than the 1,060 completions in the same quarter in 2018. This brings the total completions for the 12 months to end June 2019 to 5,378 a 13% increase on the 4,778 social sector homes completed in the previous year. The increase in the 12 months to end June 2019 is due to an increase in Housing Association led completions, which increased by 20% (664 homes).

Meanwhile, 1,193 social sector homes were started between April and June 2019. This is up 5% compared to the same quarter in the previous year. This brings the total for the 12 months to end June 2019 to 6,776 which is a 2% increase (165 homes) on the 6,611 starts in the previous year. The increase in the 12 months to end June 2019 is due to a 6% (109 homes) increase in Local Authority starts and a 1% (56 homes) increase in Housing Association led approvals.

Affordable Housing Supply – up to end June 2019

Affordable Housing Supply Programme (AHSP) statistics reflect the broader supply of affordable homes (i.e. for social rent, affordable rent and affordable home ownership) and include off the shelf purchases and rehabilitations as well as new builds. The social rent new build element of this covers largely the same houses referred to in the social sector new build section of this report. Statistics for the AHSP are available up to the end of June 2019. As a result they have been presented here for the year to end June. This differs from the figures in much of the remainder of this report which cover years to end March.

Quarterly affordable housing supply statistics are used to inform the Scottish Government target to deliver 50,000 affordable homes, including 35,000 homes for social rent, over the period 2016/17 to 2020/21, and reflect the number of affordable homes delivered that have received some form of government support through loans, grant or guarantees

Approvals, starts and completions are all measured for the AHSP. Approval is the point at which funding is granted and, along with completion, is a significant part of the administration process meaning that the data should be of good quality. Starts meanwhile can be recorded at any point in the development, for example when site clearance begins or any point up to the beginning of ground works for foundations. As a result approvals are generally deemed a better measure than starts for AHSP data.

Social Rent includes Housing Association Rent, Council House Rent as well as Home Owner Support Fund Rent.

Affordable Rent includes Mid-Market Rent (MMR), National Housing Trust (NHT) Rent as well as other programmes such as the Empty Homes Loan Fund (EHLF) and Rural Homes for Rent (RHfR).

Affordable Home Ownership includes Open Market Shared Equity (OMSE), New Supply Shared Equity (NSSE), Shared Ownership (LCHO) as well as other programmes such as Home Owner Support Fund Shared Equity.

Chart 10: Annual Affordable Housing Supply Programme (AHSP) approvals and completions have both increased since 2015, with approvals dropping in the latest year (years to end June)

A total of 1,128 affordable homes were completed in the quarter between April and June 2019, a decrease of 27%, or 426 homes when compared to the equivalent quarter in the previous year. This brings the total for the year to end June 2019 to 9,128, up 7% on the 8,495 completions in the previous year.

Between April and June 2019 a total of 1,487 affordable homes were approved. This is 286 (16%) less than in the same quarter in the previous year. It brings the total for the year to end June 2019 to 10,844 approvals, down 9% on the previous year.

There were 1,990 affordable homes started in the quarter between April and June 2019, a 20% decrease, or 502 fewer homes than the same quarter last year. This brings the total for the year to end June 2019 to 10,370, down 2% on the 10,616 starts in the previous year.

Chart 11 below shows that total affordable housing supply programme completions increased by 7% in 2019 (year to end June). In the latest year, social rent completions accounted for 70% of all completions, with affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 12% and 19% of the total, respectively.

Chart 12 below shows that the total affordable housing supply programme approvals decreased by 9% in 2019 (year to end June). In the latest year, social rent approvals accounted for 72% of all approvals, with affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 11% and 17% of the total, respectively.

Chart 11: In the latest year, Affordable Housing Supply Completions consisted of 70% social rent completions, 12% affordable rent and 19% affordable home ownership (years to end June)

Chart 12: In the latest year, Affordable Housing Supply Approvals consisted of 72% social rent approvals, 11% affordable rent and 17% affordable home ownership (years to end June)

Comparison with the rest of the UK from 2007/08 to 2018/19

This is a new section that has been added to compare how the level of affordable housing supply per head of population varies between Scotland and other UK countries, to help meet demand for cross country analysis on this.

Each of the countries of the UK produces their own statistics on affordable housing supply^[2]. Whilst there are some differences in the detail of affordable housing definitions and products used by each country, some comparisons can be made on how affordable housing supply varies per head of population.

Chart 13 below illustrates how the figures per 10,000 population have varied across the 2007/08 to 2017/18 period. Between 2007/08 and 2017/18, the annual average supply of affordable housing per head of population in Scotland has been 13.1 homes per 10,000 population, higher than England (9.5 homes per 10,000 population), Wales (7.5 homes per 10,000 population), and Northern Ireland (10.1 homes per 10,000 population).

Chart 13: Total Affordable Housing Supply Completions as a rate per 10,000 population - Scotland has had annual rates above all other UK countries in each year since 2007/08, except during 2012/13

One difference in definitions used across countries is that the Scotland figures only include units funded through the Affordable Housing Supply Programme and therefore do not capture any non-government funded supply, whilst the statistics for Wales and England both include developer-funded Section 106 supply, although for England it is thought that some will be missed as local authorities are not aware of it all. Northern Ireland does not currently have an equivalent mechanism.

In addition to the differences in total affordable supply between each country, there are also some differences in the use of different affordable housing products within the mix of overall affordable housing in each country. For example in England in recent years there has been a greater use of affordable / intermediate rent compared to social rent. Therefore when looking over the four years to 2017/18, in England there have been on average 5.1 affordable / intermediate rent homes completed per 10,000 head of population and 1.3 social rented homes completed 10,000 per-head of population. This compares to a rate of 1.9 for affordable rent homes and a rate of 8.4 for social rented homes in Scotland.

Work on the harmonisation and comparability of affordable housing statistics across the UK is being developed as part of a programme of cross-UK Housing Statistics work^[3]. Two reports are intended to be released later this year, which will cover work being carried out on the harmonisation of affordable housing statistics, as well as a UK wide Topic Report on affordable housing statistics.