Housing Statistics for Scotland Quarterly Update: New Housebuilding and Affordable Housing Supply (published 24 January 2023)

3. Private-led new housebuilding

The private sector is the biggest contributor to overall house building, accounting for over two-thirds (71%) of all homes completed in the 12 months to end June 2022.

Chart 5 shows the annual number of private sector led starts and completions from 2008 to 2022 (years to end June).

This shows the impact of the recession in the second half of the last decade, with private sector led starts and completions falling substantially in the years to end June 2009 and June 2010 due to the financial crisis. Starts and completions have been broadly increasing in more recent years until dropping in the year to end June 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19 construction lockdown measures in place between April and June 2020. In 2021 both starts and completions increased, but in the most recent year to end June 2022 whilst completions have increased by 4%, starts have fallen by 15%.

Note that previous estimates for private led new housebuilding starts and completions in Glasgow for the period Q2 2020 to Q1 2022 have now been replaced by figures based on data provided by Glasgow City Council for all-sector figures across this period, from which we have derived the private-led component by netting off social sector starts and completions. This has had the effect of decreasing the number of starts by 21 and increasing the number of completions by 1,599 over the full period of 8 quarters, although year on year trends across these two financial years are affected by a lesser extent. Further details are provided in Section 8.

Chart 6 below presents the latest quarterly trends. In April to June 2022 there were 4,296 private sector led homes completed, an increase of 14% (527 homes) on the same quarter in 2021.This brings the total for the year ending June 2022 to 15,550, an increase of 4% (615 homes) on the 14,935 completions in the previous year.

There were 4,987 private sector led homes started in April to June 2022, an increase of 4% (199 homes) on the same quarter in 2021. This brings the total for the year to end June 2022 to 14,614 starts, a decrease of 15% (2,611 homes) on the 17,225 starts in the previous year.

Note that new housebuilding starts and completions in April to June 2020 were affected by the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown measures that were in place during that quarter.

Map B below shows that the Local Authorities with the highest private sector led completion rates in the year to end June 2022 are Aberdeen City, East Lothian, Highland, Midlothian, Perth and Kinross, and West Lothian all having a rate of over 43 homes per 10,000 households.

The lowest rates meanwhile, have been in West Dunbartonshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Scottish Borders, Inverclyde, and East Dunbartonshire have all seen rates of below to 12 homes per 10,000 households.

Note that the private sector completion rates calculations contain some estimated figures. Estimated figures have been used for private sector completions for Glasgow City Council from April to June 2021, East Dunbartonshire and South Ayrshire from October to December 2021, Stirling from January to March 2022 and Aberdeen City and Angus for April to May 2022.