Housing statistics quarterly update: September 2020

3. All-Sector New Housebuilding

The new-housebuilding section of this document provides figures on the number of homes started (when the foundations are begun) and completed (when a building inspector deems the property complete). 

Figures are presented for homes built on privately led (referred to throughout as private sector), local authority led (referred to as local authority sector) and housing association led (referred to as housing association sector) sites. Social sector housebuilding is the combined total of local authority and housing association builds.

For the private sector the latest information available is for the quarter ending December 2019. Therefore headline findings for new housebuilding across all sectors are presented up to end December 2019, with other figures on social sector housebuilding presented up to end March 2020 where more recent data allows.

The figures have not been seasonally adjusted and so commentary tends to compare the latest 12 month period with the previous 12 month period, or the latest quarter with the same quarter in the previous year. To help with this, Quarter 4 figures (from October to December) have been highlighted in the charts to allow easy comparison over time. Some of the peaks in the number of starts in Quarter 1 each year are due to large numbers of housing association approvals being granted near the end of the financial year.

Chart 1 (see page 1) shows that annual all-sector new build starts and completions (years to end December) have both shown a broadly increasing trend since 2013, with starts increasing since 2011. In the latest year, starts and completions have increased by 7% and 11% respectively, with completions now higher then levels seen in 2008.

Figures for the year to end December 2019

There were 6,019 all sector new build homes completed between October and December 2019; a 10% increase (535 homes) on the same quarter in 2018. This brings the total for the year to end December 2019 to 22,386, up 11% (2,291 homes) compared to the 20,095 completed in the previous year.

There were 5,518 new build homes started between October and December 2019, 16% less (1,016 homes) than the same quarter in 2018. This brings the total for the year to end December 2019 to 23,672 which is up 7% (1,639 homes) compared to the 22,033 homes started in the previous year.

Trends since 2007

Chart 2 below presents new build completion trends on a quarterly basis and by sector. This shows the impact of the recession in the second half of the last decade, with private sector led completions falling throughout 2008 due to the financial crisis. Although total completions have since shown a marked increase over the last two years.

Sub-national local authority figures for the year to end December 2019

The information on new build housing in Scotland is collected and published at local authority level. Map A, below, shows new house building in the year to end December 2019, as a rate per 10,000 population based on the latest mid-2019 population estimates. 

In the year to end December 2019 the highest new build rates were observed in Midlothian, East Lothian, Perth & Kinross, South Lanarkshire and West Lothian. The lowest rates were observed in Inverclyde, Stirling, Dumfries & Galloway, Dundee City and East Dunbartonshire.

Comparison with the rest of the UK from 2007 to 2019

Each of the countries of the UK produces their own statistics on quarterly new build housing starts and completions by tenure, and all use broadly consistent definitions. These new build statistics for each of the countries of the UK can be found here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/ukhousebuildingdata/octobertodecember2019

In addition to this, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) also produces an additional annual set of statistics^[1] for England on new build homes, as a component part of the 'Housing supply; net additional dwellings, England' set of statistics. These statistics are collected on a different basis to the quarterly UK country statistics as local authorities can use a range of data sources to collate these figures, rather than solely using building control information. Figures on this for 2018/19 were published in October 2019, and the publication advised that the 'net additional dwellings' should be considered the primary and most comprehensive measure of housing supply in England.

MHCLG have advised that the quarterly new build statistical collection for England, whilst being a useful leading indicator of activity throughout the year, is not currently capturing all new build activity. This is largely due to difficulties in collecting accurate starts and completions data from independent building inspectors or where building control has been sourced out to strategic partnerships or the private sector. These data issues do not exist in the Scotland quarterly housing statistics, given that all of the 32 local authorities in Scotland directly manage building control and the associated provision of data to the Scottish Government on starts and completions. 

As a result of this advice from MHCLG, the new build component figures of the 'net additional dwellings' statistics for England are included in the UK comparisons as an additional set of figures to consider when comparing between countries. 

Chart 4 presents trends in the rates of new house building per 10,000 population across each of the UK countries (year to end December). The latest available Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) annual 'net additional dwelling' statistics for England indicate that whilst Scotland had a higher rate of completions per 10,000 head of population than England over the period 2007 to 2013, both have seen broadly similar rates of housebuilding each year across the period 2014 to 2018, when comparing the Scotland figures to the England net addition figures.

In the latest year, the 41 homes built per 10,000 population in Scotland is similar to the rate seen in Northern Ireland (39 homes per 10,000), and is higher than the rate seen in Wales (19 homes per 10,000). 

Note that the 'net additional dwellings' for England are on a financial year basis, i.e. the year to end March, and therefore cover a slightly different time period as the other figures presented (to end December). The 37 homes built per 10,000 in Scotland in the year to December 2018 is broadly similar to the 38 homes built per 10,000 in England in the year to March 2019 (net additional dwellings figures).