Housing Statistics for Scotland, Quarterly Update - November 2014

New build housing - all sectors

The new build section of this document provides figures on the number of homes started (when the foundations are begun) and completed (when a building inspector deems the property complete).

Figures are presented for homes built on privately led (referred to throughout as private sector), local authority led (referred to as local authority sector) and housing association led (referred to as housing association sector) sites. For the private sector the latest information available is for the quarter ending June 2014. Whilst more up-to-date information is available for local authority and housing association new build, findings for these sectors are mainly presented up to June 2014 to simplify comparisons between sectors.

The figures have not been seasonally adjusted and so commentary tends to compare the latest quarter with the same quarter the previous year. To help with this, quarter 2 figures (from April to June) have been highlighted in charts to allow easy comparison over time. The peaks in the number of starts in quarter 1 (January to March) each year are due to large numbers of housing association approvals being granted near the end of the financial year.

Chart 1 shows the number of private sector, social sector and total new homes completed each quarter since 2004 while Charts 2 and 3, below, show annual and quarterly trends in starts and completions across all sectors.

Chart 2: Annual all sector new build starts and completions, year to end June, 2005-2014

Chart 3: Quarterly new build starts and completions (all sectors) since 2004

Historic trends

Between 26,000 and 29,000 homes were started each year between 2005 and 2008 whilst slightly fewer (between 23,500 and 27,000) were completed.

All 3 charts clearly show the impact of the recession in the second half of the last decade with (private sector led) starts and completions falling dramatically throughout 2008 and the start of 2009. After this starts, and particularly completions, generally continued to fall more gradually to lows of under 14,000 per year although both have recovered slightly in the year to end June 2014 to over 15,000.

Latest data

Between April and June 2014, 4,583 new homes were completed. This is 29% up on the same quarter in 2013 and is also 23% above the quarterly average since 2011 which stands at 3,734. The latest quarter's figure brings the total for the year to end June 2014 to 15,824 which is up by 15% from 13,791 in the previous year - the first year-to-end-June annual increase since 2007.

During the same quarter 3,492 homes were started. This is down by 5% on the 3,679 homes started in the same quarter in 2013. It brings the total number of starts for the year to end June 2014 to 15,106 which is up by 13% compared to the previous year and is the highest year-to-end-June figure since 2010.

Comparison with the rest of the UK

Each of the countries of the UK produces its own statistics on New Build Housing and all use broadly consistent definitions. New build statistics for each of the countries of the UK, as well as for Great Britain and the UK as a whole can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-house-building

As chart 4 shows, the rate of house building completions in Scotland has been below that of Northern Ireland but above that of England and of Wales throughout the 2005 to 2014 period. The rates in all countries generally dropped since 2005, but have risen in the latest year in Scotland, England and Wales. Data for 2014 is not currently available for Northern Ireland but the rate rose sharply in 2013^[1].

The 15,824 homes completed in Scotland in the year to end June 2014 equates to a rate of 296 per 1,000 population. This is higher than the equivalent rates in England (211) and Wales (192) although lower than the latest available rate for Northern Ireland (476 in 2013).

Chart 4: New house building as a rate per 100,000 population for UK countries, years to end June, 2005-2014

Sub-national data

The information on new build housing in Scotland is collected and published at local authority level. Map A, below, shows new house building in the year to end June 2014, as a rate per 10,000 population.

The map shows that, in the year to end June 2014 the highest new build rates were observed in Midlothian, Aberdeenshire, and Orkney Islands and the lowest in Dundee City, South Ayrshire and Clackmannanshire.

Map A