Housing statistics quarterly update: March 2017

New Build Housing - All sectors

The new-build section of this document provides figures on the number of homes started (when the foundations are begun) and completed (when a building inspector deems the property complete).

Figures are presented for homes built on privately led (referred to throughout as private sector), local authority led (referred to as local authority sector) and housing association led (referred to as housing association sector) sites. For the private sector the latest information available is for the quarter ending September 2016. Whilst more up-to-date information is available for local authority and housing association new builds, findings for these sectors are mainly presented up to September 2016 to simplify comparisons between sectors.

The figures have not been seasonally adjusted and so commentary tends to compare the latest quarter with the same quarter the previous year. To help with this, Quarter 3 figures (from July to September) have been highlighted in the charts to allow easy comparison over time. Some of the peaks in the number of starts in Quarter 1 (January to March) each year are due to large numbers of housing association approvals being granted near the end of the financial year.

Figures on private sector new build completions for Edinburgh have been estimated from 2015 Quarter 4 onwards due to quality concerns of data derived from building completion certificates. Estimates for Edinburgh have instead been based on private new build house sales data from Registers of Scotland, with further assumptions on self-builds and private sector led section 75 completions which are not captured within this data source. The estimates for Edinburgh are being investigated further and are subject to change in future publications.

Chart 1 shows the number of private sector, social sector and total new homes completed each quarter since 2005, whilst Charts 2 and 3 show annual and quarterly trends, respectively, in starts and completions across all sectors.

Chart 2: Annual all sector new build starts and completions, years to end September, 2006 to 2016

Chart 3: Quarterly new build starts and completions (all sectors) since 2005

Trends over the last ten years

Charts 1 to 3 all clearly show the impact of the recession in the second half of the last decade, with private sector led completions in particular falling throughout 2008 and 2009 (years to end September). Completions for all sectors fell more gradually between 2010 and 2013, before increasing until 2015, following which completions have remained fairly constant in the most recent year.

Trends to end September 2016

There were 3,744 new build homes completed between July and September 2016; an 8% decrease on the same quarter in 2015. This brings the total for the year to end September 2016 to 16,309, up 1% (157 homes) compared to the 16,152 completed in the previous year.

There were 4,322 new build homes started between July and September 2016; 3% more than the same quarter in 2015. This brings the total for the year to end September 2016 to 16,870 which is down by 5% (880 homes) compared to the 17,750 homes started in the previous year.

Comparison with the rest of the UK from 2006 to 2016

Each of the countries of the UK produces their own statistics on new build housing and all use broadly consistent definitions. New build statistics for each of the countries of the UK, as well as for Great Britain and the UK as a whole can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-house-building.

As Chart 4 shows, the rate of house building completions in Scotland has been above that of England and Wales throughout the 2006 to 2016 period (years to end September). The rate of house building completions in Scotland has been below that of Northern Ireland between 2006 and 2016 except for the year 2015.

The 16,309 homes completed in Scotland in the year to end September 2016 equates to a rate of 30 per 10,000 population. This is the lower than Northern Ireland (33), but higher than the equivalent rates in England (26) and Wales (21).

Chart 4: New house building as a rate per 10,000 population for UK countries, years to end September, 2006 to 2016

Sub-national figures for the year to end September 2016

The information on new build housing in Scotland is collected and published at local authority level. Map A, below, shows new house building in the year to end September 2016, as a rate per 10,000 population.

In the year to end September 2016 the highest new build rates were observed in Midlothian, Orkney Islands, East Lothian, Perth & Kinross and Aberdeenshire. The lowest rates were observed in Angus, West Dunbartonshire, Dumfries & Galloway, East Ayrshire, and North Ayrshire.

Map A: New build housing - all sector comparisons: rates per 10,000 population, year to end September 2016