Housing statistics quarterly update: March 2017

New Build Housing - Private-led Housing

The private sector is the biggest contributor to overall house building, accounting for more than three-quarters (77%) of all homes completed in the 12 months to end September 2016.

Figures on private sector new build completions for Edinburgh have been estimated from 2015 Quarter 4 onwards due to quality concerns of data derived from building completion certificates. Estimates for Edinburgh have instead been based on private new build house sales data from Registers of Scotland, with further assumptions on self-builds and private sector led section 75 completions which are not captured within this data source. The estimates for Edinburgh are being investigated further and are subject to change in future publications.

Chart 5: Annual private sector led new build starts and completions, years to end September, 2006 to 2016

Chart 6: Quarterly new build starts and completions (private-led), since 2005

Trends over the last ten years

Between 2006 and 2008 (years to end September) the number of private sector homes started were around 18,000 to 24,000 while completions were around 19,000 to 22,000. Private sector led new build housing was hit particularly hard by the recession. The number of homes completed dropped steeply throughout 2008 then continued to decrease more gradually to under 10,000 in 2012. Since then the number of homes completed has increased overall, bringing completions through the year to almost 12,000 in the year ending September 2014 and just over 12,000 in 2015, increasing to just over 12,600 in 2016.

In September 2013 the Scottish Government introduced the Help to Buy (Scotland) scheme which has aimed to support buyers purchasing a new build home and to stimulate the house building industry. Following this, the Help to Buy (Scotland) Affordable New Build and Help to Buy (Scotland) Smaller Developers schemes were launched on 21 January 2016. Further information on the schemes, along with monitoring information setting out numbers of sales, is available at http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Built-Environment/Housing/BuyingSelling/help-to-buy.

Trends to end September 2016

Between July and September 2016, 2,912 private sector led homes were completed; down 6% on the same quarter in 2015 (see Chart 6). This brings the total for the year to end September 2016 to 12,616, which is 4% (516 homes) more than the 12,100 completions in the previous year.

Meanwhile there were 3,016 private sector led starts between July and September 2016, 8% down on the same quarter in 2015. This brings the total for the year ending September 2016 to 11,816, which is 14% (1,845 homes) less than the 13,661 starts in the previous year.

Sub-national figures for the year to end September 2016

Map B shows the rates per 10,000 head of population of private sector led new build completions in each local authority for the year to end September 2016.

The highest completion rates have been in Midlothian, East Lothian, Aberdeenshire, Perth & Kinross and Renfrewshire. The lowest rates meanwhile, have been in Angus, Dumfries & Galloway, West Dunbartonshire, Glasgow City and East Ayrshire.

Map B: New build housing - private sector completions: rates per 10,000 population, year to end September 2016