The Importance for the Fish Processing and Merchanting Sector of Landinsg of Fish from the Waters of Pentland Firth and Orkney to the Local and Scottish Economies
The objective of this study is to assist ongoing work at Marine Scotland. The specific objective is to estimate the contribution of the fish and shellfish processing industry and the fish merchants in providing returns on landings from the waters of the P
ANNEX 1: Ghosh Supply-Driven Downstream Multipliers
A1.1 The Importance of Fish Processing and Marketing of Landings of Fish and Shellfish from the Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters to the Local Economy
The Ghosh, supply-driven, or downstream multipliers estimated in this study for the impact of fish and shellfish processors and merchants in North Highland and Orkney on the local economy are set out in Table B1 and are given for comparison against the multipliers estimated from the model for other businesses in North Highland and Orkney.
Table B1: Ghosh Multipliers for the Activity of Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters Fish Processing Industry and Fish Merchants on the Local Economy, 2011.
| Type I | Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans |
Other Businesses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output | 1.12 | 1.06 | 1.19 | 1.05 | 1.41 |
| Income | 1.14 | 1.08 | 1.29 | 1.05 | 1.41 |
| Employment | 1.10 | 1.04 | 1.18 | 1.05 | 1.41 |
| Type II | |||||
| Output | 1.16 | 1.10 | 1.26 | 1.05 | 2.76 |
| Income | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.46 | 1.05 | 2.75 |
| Employment | 1.13 | 1.07 | 1.25 | 1.05 | 2.76 |
The Ghosh Technology Matrix for Type I supply-driven multipliers for the North Highland and Orkney economy derived from the Type I Consolidated Transactions Matrix are set out as Tables B1.1 and B1.2 in the Appendix to Annex 1.
The levels of the multipliers are generally plausible but a noticeable feature is the similarity of both the Type I and Type II supply multipliers across output, income and employment. Likewise the effects are small, as is to be expected. Purchasers could obtain supplies from elsewhere were North Highland and Orkney supplies to dry up, though the increased demand on the alternative sources would raise supply prices and therefore cost some output and jobs.
The output, income and employment (in full-time equivalent jobs) in North Highland and Orkney dependent downstream among purchasers on the presence of the fish and shellfish processors and merchants are set out in detail in Tables B2, B3 and B4.
The results suggest that £6.4m of direct and indirect effects rests on the initial £6m output of the fish and shellfish processors and merchants. When induced effects are added the dependency rises only slightly, to £6.6m.
Table B2: Downstream Dependency of the Local Economy on the Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters Fish Processing Industry and Fish Merchants for Output
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct and Indirect Effects, Type I, (£m) |
£0.25 | £4.35 | £0.60 | £1.20 |
| Direct, Indirect and Induced Effects, Type II, (£m) |
£0.26 | £4.52 | £0.64 | £1.20 |
Table B3: Downstream Dependency of the Local Economy on the Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters Fish Processing Industry and Fish Merchants for Income
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct and Indirect Effects, Type I, (£m) |
£0.05 | £1.08 | £0.10 | £0.29 |
| Direct, Indirect and Induced Effects, Type II, (£m) |
£0.06 | £1.14 | £0.11 | £0.29 |
Table B4: Downstream Dependency of the Local Economy on the Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters Fish Processing Industry and Fish Merchants for Employment
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct and Indirect Effects, Type I, FTE Jobs |
4 | 83 | 7 | 23 |
| Direct, Indirect and Induced Effects, Type II, FTE Jobs |
4 | 85 | 7 | 23 |
They also intimate that £1.5m of direct and indirect effects rests on the initial £1.4m income of the sector rising to £1.6m when induced effects are included.
118 [5] jobs in the North Highland and Orkney economy are estimated to depend directly and indirectly on the 112 people estimated to be working in the sector in North Highland and Orkney and when induced effects within the locality are added the figure rises to 120 [6] .
The Type II Ghosh multipliers are noticeably lower than the Leontief multipliers. These low supply-driven multipliers indicate that the bulk of the product is exported directly from the processors and merchants. It is estimated that more than 90% of output is exported from the locality.
Appendix to Section A1.1
Closed Input-Output Table Derivatives for the Local Economy to produce Type I Multipliers
Table B1.1: Technology Matrix for Ghosh Supply-Driven Type I Multipliers for the Local Economy, 2011, (Closed)
| % | 2011 | Purchaser | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans | Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans | Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans | Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans | Other Businesses | Total | Households | Misc Final Demand | Exports | Total Output | ||
| Producer | Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans | 0.075 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.025 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.900 | 1.000 |
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans | 0.000 | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.030 | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.950 | 1.000 | |
| Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.850 | 1.000 | |
| Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.950 | 1.000 | |
| Other Businesses | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.291 | 0.346 | 0.098 | 0.264 | 1.000 | |
Note: Some columns and rows may not exactly add-up owing to rounding.
Closed Input-Output Table Derivatives for the Local Economy to produce Type II Multipliers
Table B1.2: Technology Matrix for Ghosh Supply-Driven Type II Multipliers for the Local Economy, 2011, (Closed)
| % | 2011 | Purchaser | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans | Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans | Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans | Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans | Other Businesses | Households | Total | Misc Final Demand | Exports | Total Output | ||
| Producer | Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans | 0.075 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.025 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.900 | 1.000 |
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans | 0.000 | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.950 | 1.000 | |
| Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.850 | 1.000 | |
| Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.950 | 1.000 | |
| Other Businesses | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.346 | 0.638 | 0.098 | 0.264 | 1.000 | |
| Households | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.999 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | |
Note: Some columns and rows may not exactly add-up owing to rounding.
A1.2 The Importance of Fish Processing and Marketing of Landings of Fish and Shellfish from the Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters to the Scottish Economy
The multipliers estimated in this study for the impact of fish and shellfish processors and merchants in North Highland and Orkney on the Scottish economy as a whole are set out in Table B5 and are given for comparison against the multipliers estimated from the model for other businesses in Scotland.
Table B5: Ghosh Multipliers for the Activity of Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters Fish and Shellfish Processing Industry and Merchants on the Scottish Economy, 2011.
| Type I | Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans |
Other Businesses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output | 1.70 | 1.68 | 1.14 | 1.26 | 1.34 |
| Income | 2.10 | 1.95 | 1.18 | 1.35 | 1.34 |
| Employment | 1.46 | 1.37 | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.34 |
| Type II | |||||
| Output | 2.23 | 2.24 | 1.17 | 1.45 | 2.49 |
| Income | 2.97 | 2.75 | 1.24 | 1.61 | 2.49 |
| Employment | 1.79 | 1.67 | 1.16 | 1.27 | 2.49 |
The Ghosh Technology Matrix for Type I supply-driven multipliers derived from the Type I Consolidated Transactions Matrix for Scotland is set out as Table B2.1 in the Appendix to Section A1.2. That for the Type II multipliers is set out in Table B2.2.
The output, income and employment (in full-time equivalent jobs) in Scotland dependent on the presence of the fish and shellfish processors and merchants in North Highland and Orkney are set out in detail in Tables B6, B7 and B8 below.
Again, the Type II multipliers are higher than those for Type I because they include the induced effects on the broader economy as well as the direct and indirect effects.
The results suggest that £9m of direct and indirect effects rests on the initial £6m output of the fish and shellfish processors and merchants. When induced effects are added the dependency rises to £12m.
They also indicate that £2.5m of direct and indirect effects in the Scottish economy rests on the initial £1.4m income of the sector rising to £3.4m when induced effects are included.
Table N6: Downstream Dependency of the Scottish Economy on the Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters Fish and Shellfish Processing Industry and Merchants for Output
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct and Indirect Effects, Type I, (£m) |
£0.38 | £6.86 | £0.58 | £1.44 |
| Direct, Indirect and Induced Effects, Type II, (£m) |
£0.50 | £9.18 | £0.59 | £1.65 |
Table N7: Downstream Dependency of the Scottish Economy on the Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters Fish and Shellfish Processing Industry and Merchants for Income
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct and Indirect Effects, Type I, (£m) |
£0.10 | £1.95 | £0.09 | £0.38 |
| Direct, Indirect and Induced Effects, Type II, (£m) |
£0.14 | £2.76 | £0.09 | £0.45 |
Table N8: Downstream Dependency of the Scottish Economy on the Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters Fish and Shellfish Processing Industry and Merchants for Employment
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans |
Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct and Indirect Effects, Type I, FTE Jobs |
5 | 110 | 7 | 26 |
| Direct, Indirect and Induced Effects, Type II, FTE Jobs |
7 | 134 | 7 | 28 |
The difficulty in determining precisely the number of people employed in the sector identified in Section 2 for the local North Highland and Orkney Consolidated Transactions Matrices applies also to those for Scotland, and the reasons - the proportion of part-time employees and the contribution of unpaid family members - are similar.
148 jobs in the Scottish economy are estimated to depend directly and indirectly on the 112 people estimated to be working in the sector in North Highland and Orkney and when induced effects are added the figure rises to 176.
Appendix to Section A1.2
Closed Input-Output Table Derivatives for the Scottish Economy to produce Type I Multipliers
Table B2.1: Technology Matrix for Ghosh Supply-Driven Type I Multipliers for the Scottish Economy, 2011, (Closed)
| % | 2011 | Purchaser | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans | Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans | Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans | Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans | Other Businesses | Total | Households | Misc Final Demand | Exports | Total Output | ||
| Producer | Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans | 0.075 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.425 | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans | 0.000 | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.480 | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 1.000 | |
| Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.020 | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.880 | 1.000 | |
| Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.150 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.800 | 1.000 | |
| Other Businesses | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.252 | 0.347 | 0.109 | 0.292 | 1.000 | |
Note: Some columns and rows may not exactly add-up owing to rounding.
Closed Input-Output Table Derivatives for the Scottish Economy to produce Type II Multipliers
Table B2.2: Technology Matrix for Ghosh Supply-Driven Type II Multipliers for the Scottish Economy, 2011, (Closed)
| % | 2011 | Purchaser | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans | Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans | Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans | Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans | Other Businesses | Households | Total | Misc Final Demand | Exports | Total Output | ||
| Producer | Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Non-Crustaceans | 0.075 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.425 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| Processors and Merchants: Orkney Landings of Crustaceans | 0.000 | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.480 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 1.000 | |
| Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Non-Crustaceans | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.880 | 1.000 | |
| Processors and Merchants: North Highland Landings of Crustaceans | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.800 | 1.000 | |
| Other Businesses | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.347 | 0.599 | 0.109 | 0.292 | 1.000 | |
| Households | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | |
Note: Some columns and rows may not exactly add-up owing to rounding.
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