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Publication - Research and analysis

Improving Our Understanding of Seabird Behaviour at Sea

Published
30 June 2022
From
Director-General Net Zero
Directorate
Marine Directorate
Topic
Energy, Environment and climate change, Marine and fisheries
ISBN
9781804352175

This project collated tracking data from five seabird species thought to be vulnerable to offshore wind farms. These data were analysed to understand whether seabird distribution data, usually undertaken in daytime, good weather conditions, were representative of behaviour in other conditions.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

7.6 Appendix AF: AIC tables for individual species

7.6.1 Northern Gannet

Table A2: For Gannet, competing model list for comparing inclusion of covariates on transition probability between and within states at each colony; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'cdist' distance from the colony; stepturn is a model with only wind speed and direction included for effects on step length and turning angle; NULL is a model with no covariates included at all. * = model not converged.

(a) Alderney

Rank Model AIC dAIC
1 hour.jd.cdist.ws 2615401.84 0.00
2 hour.jd.cdist 2615411.00 9.16
3 hour.cdist.w 2615448.81 46.97
1 hour.cdist 2615453.09 51.26
2 hour.jd.ws 2616347.04 945.20
3 hour.jd 2616364.46 962.62
4 hour.ws 2616382.19 980.35
5 hour 2616409.21 1007.37
6 jd.cdist.ws 2616420.73 1018.89
7 jd.cdist 2616422.98 1021.14
8 cdist 2616455.74 1053.90
9 cdist.ws 2616461.14 1059.31
10 jd.ws. 2617558.10 2156.26
11 jd 2617582.27 2180.44
12 ws 2617585.60 2183.76
13 NULL.wswd.stan 2617614.00 2212.16
14 NULL 2619618.00 4216.16

(b) Bass Rock 2010

Rank Model AIC dAIC
1 hour.jd.cdist.ws 1357071.00 0.00
2 hour.jd.cdist 1357114.00 43.00
3 hour.cdist.ws 1357129.00 58.00
4 hour.cdist 1357194.00 123.00
5 hour.ws 1357505.00 434.00
6 hour.jd 1357514.00 443.00
7 hour 1357587.00 516.00
8 jd.cdist 1357832.00 761.00
9 cdist.ws 1357840.00 769.00
10 cdist 1357913.00 842.00
11 jd.ws 1358272.00 1201.00
12 ws 1358315.00 1244.00
13 jd 1358334.00 1263.00
14 NULL.wswd.stan 1358388.00 1317.00
15 NULL 1359337.00 2266.00
16 hour.jd.ws* - -
17 jd.cdist.ws* - -

(c) Bass Rock 2011

Rank Model AIC dAIC
1 hour.jd.cdist.ws 1249432.00 0.00
2 hour.jd.cdist 1249452.00 20.00
3 hour.cdist 1249492.00 60.00
4 hour.cdist.ws 1249507.00 75.00
5 hour.jd 1249609.00 177.00
6 hour.jd.ws 1249630.00 198.00
7 hour.ws 1249681.00 249.00
8 jd.cdist 1249978.00 546.00
9 jd.cdist.ws 1249989.00 557.00
10 cdist 1250034.00 602.00
11 cdist.ws 1250039.00 607.00
12 jd 1250193.00 761.00
13 jd.ws 1250215.00 783.00
14 NULL.wswd.stan 1250238.00 806.00
15 ws 1250257.00 825.00
16 NULL 1251612.00 -
17 hour - -

(d) Bass Rock 2012

Rank Model AIC dAIC
1 hour.jd.cdist 1604325.00 0.00
2 hour.cdist.ws 1604392.00 67.00
3 hour.cdist 1604430.00 105.00
4 hour.jd.ws 1604698.00 373.00
5 hour.jd 1604723.00 398.00
6 hour.ws 1604782.00 457.00
7 hour 1604824.00 499.00
8 jd.cdist 1605132.00 807.00
9 cdist.ws 1605194.00 869.00
10 cdist 1605241.00 916.00
11 jd 1605626.00 1301.00
12 NULL.wswd.stan 1605674.00 1349.00
13 ws 1605689.00 1364.00
14 NULL 1606253.00 1928.00
15 hour.jd.cdist.ws - -
16 jd.cdist.ws - -
17 jd.ws - -

7.6.2 Lesser Black-backed Gull

Table A3: For Lesser Black-backed Gull, competing model list for comparing inclusion of covariates on transition probability between and within states at each colony; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'cdist' distance from the colony; stepturn is a model with only wind speed and direction included for effects on step length and turning angle; NULL is a model with no covariates included at all.; * = model not converged

(a) Walney

Rank Model AIC dAIC
1 hour.jd.cdist.ws 352532.8 0
2 hour.jd.cdist 352582.1 49.3
3 hour.cdist.ws 352700.8 168
4 hour.cdist 352760.7 227.9
1 hour.jd.ws 352877.6 344.8
2 jd.cdist.ws 352893.9 361.1
3 jd.cdist 352904.7 371.9
4 hour.jd 352924.9 392.1
5 cdist.ws 353037.5 504.7
6 hour.ws 353096.1 563.3
7 hour 353154 621.2
8 jd.ws 353177 644.2
9 jd 353190 657.2
10 ws 353373.6 840.8
11 NULL.wswd.stan 353399.2 866.4
16 NULL 353814.2 NA
17 cdist NA NA

(b) Skokholm

Rank Model AIC dAIC
1 hour.jd.cdist.ws 1064114.93 0.00
2 hour.jd.cdist 1064119.89 4.96
3 hour.cdist.ws 1064203.80 88.86
1 hour.cdist 1064213.93 99.00
2 jd.cdist.ws 1064314.90 199.97
3 jd.cdist 1064315.14 200.21
4 cdist.ws 1064393.71 278.78
5 cdist 1064409.55 294.62
6 hour.jd.ws 1064996.42 881.49
7 hour.jd 1065006.75 891.82
8 hour.ws 1065030.72 915.79
9 hour 1065040.22 925.28
10 jd.ws 1065141.04 1026.11
11 jd 1065151.53 1036.60
12 ws 1065181.42 1066.49
13 NULL.wswd 1065401.00 1286.07
14 NULL 1066117.00 2002.07

(c) Orford Ness

Rank Model AIC dAIC
1 hour.jd.cdist.ws 283046.69 0.00
2 hour.cdist.ws 283066.72 20.03
3 hour.cdist 283082.40 35.71
4 jd.cdist 283252.55 205.86
5 jd.cdist.ws 283265.30 218.61
6 cdist 283296.15 249.46
7 cdist.ws 283304.93 258.24
8 hour 283323.60 276.91
9 hour.ws 283328.61 281.91
10 hour.jd 283330.83 284.14
11 jd 283491.16 444.46
12 jd.ws 283510.22 463.53
13 ws 283521.85 475.16
14 NULL.wswd 283690.20 643.51
15 NULL 283877.70 831.01
16 hour.jd.cdist NA NA
17 hour.jd.ws NA NA

7.6.3 Black-legged Kittiwake

Table A4: For Kittiwake, competing model list for comparing inclusion of covariates on transition probability between and within states at each colony; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'cdist' distance from the colony; stepturn is a model with only wind speed and direction included for effects on step length and turning angle; NULL is a model with no covariates included at all. * = model not converged
Colony Rank Model AIC dAIC
Isle of May 1 hour.jd.cdist.ws 371412.0 0.0
2 ws 371930.8 518.8
3 hour.jd.cdist 371955.2 543.2
4 hour.cdist 371968.9 556.9
5 hour.jd.ws 372100.4 688.4
6 hour.ws 372128.9 716.9
7 hour.jd 372160.6 748.6
8 hour 372170.3 758.3
9 cdist.ws 372220.8 808.8
10 jd.cdist 372244.7 832.7
11 cdist 372273.6 861.6
12 jd.ws 372405.4 993.4
13 jd 372465.7 1053.7
14 stepturn 372481.7 1069.7
15 NULL 372730.7 1318.7
Colonsay 1 hour.jd.cdist.ws 1099819.0 0.0
2 hour.jd.cdist 1099823.0 4.0
3 hour.cdist.ws 1100016.0 197.0
4 hour.cdist 1100052.0 233.0
5 jd.cdist.ws 1100368.0 549.0
6 jd.cdist 1100373.0 554.0
7 cdist.ws 1100606.0 787.0
8 cdist 1100639.0 820.0
9 hour.jd.ws 1101258.0 1439.0
10 hour.jd 1101289.0 1470.0
11 hour.ws 1101455.0 1636.0
12 hour 1101515.0 1696.0
13 jd.ws 1101886.0 2067.0
14 ws 1102097.0 2278.0
15 stepturn 1102148.0 2329.0
16 NULL 1102663.0 2844.0
Bempton 1 hour.jd.cdist.ws 1064550.0 0.0
2 hour.jd.cdist 1064657.0 107.0
3 hour.cdist.ws 1064668.0 118.0
4 hour.cdist 1064798.0 248.0
5 hour.jd.ws 1064923.0 373.0
6 hour.ws 1065034.0 484.0
7 hour.jd 1065040.0 490.0
8 hour 1065150.0 600.0
9 jd.cdist.ws 1065165.0 615.0
10 cdist.ws 1065252.0 702.0
11 jd.cdist 1065268.0 718.0
12 cdist 1065392.0 842.0
13 jd.ws 1065552.0 1002.0
14 ws 1065633.0 1083.0
15 jd 1065655.0 1105.0
16 stepturn 1065742.0 1192.0
17 NULL 1065898.0 1348.0
Orkney 1 hour.jd.cdist 687026.7 0
2 hour.jd.cdist.ws 687031.5 4.8
3 hour.cdist 687049 22.3
4 jd.cdist.ws 687069.4 42.7
5 cdist.ws 687089.6 62.9
6 jd.cdist 687096.4 69.7
7 cdist 687100.3 73.6
8 hour.jd.ws 688982.5 1955.8
9 hour.jd 689066.2 2039.5
10 jd.ws 689084.5 2057.8
11 NULL_4state** 689084.5 2057.8
12 hour.ws 689098.1 2071.4
13 hour 689173.1 2146.4
14 jd 689183.2 2156.5
15 ws 689199 2172.3
16 stepturn 689288.2 2261.5
17 NULL_3state** 690191.7 3165

** Orkney note NULL four state model included, specifying a better fit to the data than a three state;

7.6.4 Razorbill

Table A5: For Razorbill, competing models comparing inclusion of covariates for effects on transition probability between and within states at each colony; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'cdist' distance from the colony; stepturn is a model with only wind speed and direction included for effects on step length and turning angle; NULL is a model with no covariates included at all.; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'colony.dist' distance from the colony.
Colony Rank Model AIC dAIC
Colonsay 1 hour.jd.colony.dist.ws 936966.10 0.00
2 hour.jd.colony.dist 937012.20 46.10
3 jd.colony.dist.ws 937221.67 255.57
4 hour.colony.dist.ws 937229.74 263.64
5 jd.colony.dist 937278.09 311.99
6 hour.colony.dist 937299.35 333.24
7 colony.dist.ws 937467.75 501.65
8 colony.dist 937541.50 575.40
9 hour.jd.ws 941621.90 4655.80
10 hour.jd 941697.15 4731.05
11 hour.ws 941882.16 4916.06
12 hour 941963.98 4997.88
13 jd.ws 942306.69 5340.59
14 jd 942389.76 5423.66
15 ws 942470.48 5504.38
Puffin Island 1 hour.jd.colony.dist.ws 703759.62 0.00
2 hour.jd.colony.dist 703775.52 15.90
3 hour.colony.dist.ws 704003.66 244.04
4 hour.colony.dist 704027.67 268.05
5 jd.colony.dist.ws 704174.25 414.63
6 jd.colony.dist 704196.87 437.26
7 colony.dist.ws 704346.18 586.56
8 colony.dist 704378.73 619.11
9 hour.jd.ws 705083.41 1323.79
10 hour.jd 705131.17 1371.55
11 hour.ws 705395.51 1635.89
12 hour 705431.92 1672.30
13 jd.ws 706086.68 2327.06
14 jd 706156.30 2396.68
15 ws 706296.72 2537.10
Isle of May 1 hour.jd.colony.dist.ws 482572.97 0.00
2 hour.jd.colony.dist 482613.33 40.36
3 hour.colony.dist.ws 482621.68 48.71
4 hour.colony.dist 482685.98 113.01
5 jd.colony.dist.ws 482746.35 173.38
6 colony.dist.ws 482813.30 240.33
7 jd.colony.dist 482814.87 241.90
8 colony.dist 482912.49 339.52
9 hour.jd.ws 484692.72 2119.75
10 hour 484692.72 2119.75
11 hour.ws 484742.77 2169.80
12 hour.jd 484762.57 2189.60
13 jd.ws 485108.87 2535.90
14 ws 485218.02 2645.05
15 jd 485243.32 2670.35
Table A6: Competing models, incorporating TDR data, comparing inclusion of covariates for effects on transition probability between and within states for each colony for Razorbills; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'colony.dist' distance from the colony.
Colony Rank Model AIC dAIC
Colonsay 1 hour 672997.4 0
2 ws 673574.6 577.2223
3 hour.colony.dist 721837.9 48840.51
4 colony.dist 721949.3 48951.89
5 hour.jd.colony.dist 722085.9 49088.53
6 hour.colony.dist.ws 722119.4 49122.02
7 jd.colony.dist 722164.1 49166.79
8 colony.dist.ws 722186.2 49188.86
9 hour.jd.colony.dist.ws 722366.9 49369.54
10 jd.colony.dist.ws 722434.8 49437.43
11 jd.RData 722656.8 49659.45
12 hour.jd 722743.3 49745.94
13 hour.ws 722779.8 49782.4
14 jd.ws 722934.3 49936.92
15 hour.jd.ws 723007.6 50010.22

7.6.5 Common Guillemot

Table A7: For Guillemot, competing models comparing inclusion of covariates for effects on transition probability between and within states at each colony; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'cdist' distance from the colony; stepturn is a model with only wind speed and direction included for effects on step length and turning angle; NULL is a model with no covariates included at all. 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'colony.dist' distance from the colony.
Colony Rank Model AIC dAIC
Colonsay 1 hour.colony.dist 1567512.16 0.00
2 hour.jd 1574766.43 7254.26
3 hour.ws 1574801.31 7289.15
4 hour 1574845.12 7332.95
5 jd 1575044.13 7531.97
6 ws 1575065.17 7553.00
7 hour.jd.colony.dist.ws 1692599.56 125087.40
8 hour.jd.colony.dist 1692612.85 125100.69
9 hour.colony.dist.ws 1692778.75 125266.59
10 jd.colony.dist.ws 1692950.00 125437.84
11 jd.colony.dist 1692962.35 125450.19
12 colony.dist.ws 1693108.83 125596.66
13 colony.dist 1693122.04 125609.88
14 hour.jd.ws 1699357.19 131845.03
15 jd.ws 1699719.78 132207.61
Puffin Island 1 hour.jd.colony.dist.ws 509073.18 0.00
2 hour.jd.colony.dist 509133.07 59.89
3 jd.colony.dist.ws 509205.67 132.49
4 hour.colony.dist.ws 509332.86 259.68
5 jd.colony.dist 509340.91 267.73
6 hour.colony.dist 509366.56 293.38
7 colony.dist.ws 509502.95 429.76
8 colony.dist 509564.27 491.09
9 hour.jd.ws 510939.71 1866.52
10 hour.jd 511036.59 1963.40
11 jd.ws 511226.38 2153.20
12 hour.ws 511246.46 2173.27
13 hour 511358.75 2285.56
14 jd 511400.52 2327.33
15 ws 511551.97 2478.78
Fowlsheugh 1 hour.jd.colony.dist 143685.31 0.00
2 hour.colony.dist.ws 143714.09 28.78
3 hour.colony.dist 143720.85 35.53
4 jd.colony.dist.ws 143723.79 38.48
5 colony.dist.ws 143724.66 39.35
6 jd.colony.dist 143724.82 39.51
7 colony.dist 143740.12 54.81
8 hour.jd.ws 144269.51 584.20
9 jd.ws 144291.12 605.81
10 hour.ws 144322.32 637.00
11 ws 144323.64 638.33
12 hour.jd 144350.50 665.19
13 hour 144352.61 667.30
14 jd 144359.44 674.13
15 hour.jd.colony.dist.ws 157438.20 13752.89
Isle of May 1 hour.jd.colony.dist.ws 804590.45 0.00
2 hour.jd.colony.dist 804712.55 122.10
3 hour.colony.dist.ws 804749.56 159.12
4 jd.colony.dist.ws 804819.43 228.99
5 hour.colony.dist 804864.58 274.14
6 colony.dist.ws 804977.75 387.30
7 colony.dist 805104.91 514.46
8 hour.jd.ws 807936.28 3345.84
9 hour.ws 808027.03 3436.58
10 hour.jd 808128.69 3538.24
11 jd.ws 808132.87 3542.43
12 hour 808232.64 3642.20
13 ws 808239.87 3649.42
14 jd 808336.16 3745.72
Table A8: Competing models, incorporating TDR data, comparing inclusion of covariates for effects on transition probability between and within states for each colony for Guillemots; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'colony.dist' distance from the colony.
    Model AIC dAIC
Colonsay 1 ws 669906.04 0.00
2 hour 670167.05 261.00
3 colony.dist 719205.60 49299.56
4 hour.colony.dist 719543.19 49637.15
5 jd.colony.dist 719561.05 49655.01
6 hour.jd.colony.dist 719675.81 49769.76
7 colony.dist.ws 719716.35 49810.30
8 hour.colony.dist.ws 719786.89 49880.84
9 jd.colony.dist.ws 719803.55 49897.50
10 hour.jd.colony.dist.ws 720038.67 50132.63
11 jd 720487.47 50581.42
12 hour.jd.RData 720573.10 50667.05
13 hour.ws 720635.33 50729.29
14 jd.ws 720710.69 50804.65
15 hour.jd.ws 720819.45 50913.41
Fowlsheugh 1 hour.colony.dist 110156.08 0.00
2 hour 110653.30 497.21
3 hour.jd 110883.24 727.16
4 hour.ws 110931.61 775.53
5 jd.colony.dist 112349.66 2193.58
6 colony.dist.ws 112871.52 2715.43
7 colony.dist 120581.60 10425.52
8 ws 120648.79 10492.71
9 jd 120656.08 10499.99
10 jd.ws 120915.81 10759.72
11 hour.jd.colony.dist 120973.96 10817.87
12 hour.colony.dist.ws 120998.44 10842.36
13 hour.jd.ws 121028.70 10872.62
14 jd.colony.dist.ws 121127.20 10971.11
15 hour.jd.colony.dist.ws 121268.20 11112.12

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