Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q2 2024

Over the year to June 2024 Scotland’s goods exports to the EU decreased by 8% in real terms to £8.8 billion in current prices.

Over this period the greatest decreases in real terms were in Drink (down 18%), General industrial machinery (down 22%) and Cereals and cereal preparation (down 34%). Drink accounted for around a third of the total decline in EU exports in real terms and was the largest driver of the overall decrease.

The largest positive changes in real terms for EU exports were seen in Fish and shellfish (up 17%), Road vehicles (up 20%) and Electrical machinery & appliances (up 3%).

Figure 4. Drink saw the largest decrease in goods exports to the EU

Current price value and real terms change (%) of Scotland’s top exported commodities to the EU: the year ending June 2024 compared to the previous year

Current price estimates show increases in the value of exports to both EU and non-EU destinations since the pre-pandemic period. In contrast the real terms estimates show declines for both destinations as seen in Figure 5. This suggests that inflation has been having a large effect in recent years.

Figure 5. Scotland’s EU and non-EU goods exports in real terms have followed similar patterns since 2018.

Index of Scotland’s international goods exports in real terms (CVM) by destination, 2018 Q2 to 2024 Q2. Average of the year ending June 2019 = 100. [1]

[1] Excluding oil, gas and erratic series.

Over the longer term Scotland’s goods exports to the EU have decreased by 17% since the year ending June 2019.

The decline for Scotland over this period was driven by Drink (down 17%), Apparel & clothing (down 83%) and Other manufactured articles (down 66%).