Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q2 2024

Over the year to June 2024 Scotland’s goods imports increased in real terms by 4% to a current price value of £22.9 billion.

The increase was largely driven by imports of Manufactures of metal (up 77%), Power generating machinery (up 24%) and Metalliferous ores & metal scrap (up 118%).  Manufactures of metal and Power generating machinery saw the largest increases, each accounting for around a third of the overall increase.

There were decreases in real terms in imports of Office machinery (down 17%), Telecomms & sound recording (down 25%) and Professional & scientific instruments (down 19%).

EU imports increased by 4% in real terms between the year ending June 2024 and the previous year, driven largely by imports of Power generating machinery (up 87%). Imports from non-EU countries increased in real terms by 4% over this period, which was driven by imports of Manufactures of metal (up 106%).

Figure 6. Scotland’s non-EU goods imports are closer to pre-pandemic levels than EU imports in real terms

Index of Scotland’s international goods imports in real terms (CVM) by destination, 2018 Q2 to 2024 Q2. Average of the year ending June 2019 = 100. [1]

[1] Excluding oil, gas and erratic series.

From around the start of 2020, the EU real terms import series for Scotland has remained below that of non-EU imports. The index for EU imports is below the year ending June 2019 base in the most recent period, whereas the non-EU average for the most recent year is actually 3% higher. Therefore any increases in current prices for imports are likely to be strongly impacted by inflation for EU imports.

Over the longer term Scotland’s imports in real terms have decreased (down 3% in the year ending June 2024 since the corresponding period in 2019). EU imports decreased by 12% over this period, while non-EU imports increased by 3%.