Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q3 2024

Goods exports to the EU

Over the year to September 2024 Scotland’s goods exports to the EU decreased by 14% in real terms to £8.3 billion in current prices.

Over this period the greatest decreases in real terms were in Drink (down 24%), General industrial machinery (down 27%) and Medicinal & pharmaceutical products (down 34%). Drink accounted for around a third of the total decline in EU exports in real terms and was the largest driver of the overall decrease.

The largest positive changes in real terms for EU exports were seen in Fish and shellfish (up 14%), Telecomms & sound recording (up 7%) and Plastics in primary forms (up 13%).

Figure 4. Drink saw the largest decrease in goods exports to the EU

Current price value and real terms change (%) of Scotland’s top exported commodities to the EU: the year ending September 2024 compared to the previous year

Compared to the unadjusted series (which can be found in the accompanying Excel tables) the CVM analysis suggests that the impact of inflation on current prices for EU exports has been having a large effect since around the start of 2021. This can make it appear from statistics showing current prices that exports are increasing, while real terms analysis shows exports remaining stable or even declining since 2018 as in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Scotland’s EU and non-EU goods exports in real terms have followed similar patterns since 2017.

Index of Scotland’s international goods exports in real terms (CVM) by destination, 2017 Q3 to 2024 Q3. Average of the year ending September 2018 = 100. 

Over the longer term Scotland’s goods exports to the EU have decreased by 20% since the year ending September 2018. This compares to a 28% decrease for the UK over the same period.

The decline for Scotland over this period was driven by Drink (down 25%), Apparel & clothing (down 82%) and Office machinery (down 76%).