Infrastructure Investment Plan 2021-22 to 2025-26 Major capital projects progress update (August 2024)

Sector: Transport

Project: A9 Dualling Tomatin to Moy

Business case approved stages: Third project phase of A9 Dualling programme involves approximately six miles (9.6km) of online widening of existing single carriageway to an all-purpose dual carriageway, extending from existing dual carriageways to the south of Tomatin and to the north of Moy. The original Outline Business Case (OBC) outlined that the project was estimated to cost £197 million and was planned to be operational in December 2025.

Parliament was advised on 8 February 2023 that the project was to be revised following a decision not to make an award under the initial procurement (as reported in March 2023 update). An updated OBC was approved in August 2023 which outlined that the project was estimated to cost £254 million and was planned to be operational in the second half of 2027. The Full Business Case (FBC) approved in July 2024 outlines that the project is estimated to cost £308 million and that it is planned to be operational by the end of 2027.

Progress at December 2023: The updated OBC was approved in August 2023 and the project was advertised to the market on 5 September 2023, the same day that Parliament was advised of this decision. The OBC outlines that the project is estimated to cost £254 million and that it is planned to be operational in the second half of 2027.

The increase in the revised OBC cost is linked to inflationary effects and the cost of the change in contract strategy following the decision not to make an award under the previous procurement. It is estimated that the earliest possible contract award, subject to no unforeseen circumstances, will be early summer 2024.

Progress at August 2024: Following the conclusion of the procurement competition, the FBC was approved on 5 July 2024. The Preferred Bidder, Balfour Beatty Civil Engineering Ltd was announced on 9 July 2024 and the contract formally awarded on 30 July 2024.

The final tender price was £184.7 million, resulting in a total forecast project cost of £308 million (at Q2 2024 prices). This is an increase to that in OBC and what was previously reported and takes into account the contract award price, which is now known. The cost of the project will continue to be monitored and updated as construction works progress and risks materialise and/or diminish. The project is planned to be operational by the end of 2027.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: A9 Dualling Tay Crossing to Ballinluig

Business case approved stages: The fourth phase of the A9 Dualling programme, the 8.2km trunk road from Tay Crossing to Ballinluig is being upgraded to an all- purpose dual carriageway as part of a wider programme to dual the A9 between Perth and Inverness. The OBC outlines that the total project cost will be £222 million (at April 2023 prices) with the construction contract cost estimated at £155 million (at Q2 2025 price base) and that the project is planned to be operational by the end of 2028.

Progress at December 2023: N/A

Progress at August 2024: The OBC was approved in May 2024 and the project is now in procurement. The OBC outlines that the total project cost will be £222 million (at April 2023 prices) with the construction contract cost estimated at £155 million (at Q2 2025 price base) and that the project is planned to be operational by the end of 2028.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: Levenmouth Rail project

Business case approved stages: Scheme will re-open the disused rail line between

Thornton junction and Leven in Fife, providing new passenger rail services to connect the Levenmouth area to Fife, Edinburgh, and the wider rail network. The OBC was predicated on a cost estimate of £70 million and project was estimated to be operational by December 2023. The FBC was predicated on an anticipated final cost of £116 million and an estimated operational date of spring 2024 (as reported in March 2022 update, the approved FBC reflected an expanded scope and additional investment).

Progress at December 2023: No change to cost since the last report.

The construction of the project is progressing well, and driver training is commencing in January 2024. The operational start date is now June 2024. This is in line with the national operational timetable change date. An interim timetable of one train per hour will be introduced on operational start date due to rolling stock availability and engagement is ongoing with ScotRail (via Scottish Rail Holdings) to deliver the full timetable and FBC requirements of two trains per hour.

Progress at August 2024: No change to cost or timing since the last report.

The project became operational on 2 June 2024. An interim timetable of one train per hour was introduced at operational start due to rolling stock availability and engagement is ongoing with ScotRail and Scottish Rail Holdings to deliver the full timetable and FBC requirements of two trains per hour in 2025. One active travel footbridge was unexpectedly delayed, with its manufacturer going into administration. For station opening a temporary footpath was installed and the new active travel footbridge construction is planned for September 2024. Cost reviews will continue until all works are complete.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: East Kilbride Rail Enhancement

Business case approved stages: Project is part of the East Kilbride and Barrhead Rail Enhancement scheme. The scheme will make rail services reliable, efficient, and attractive to passengers and support modal shift whilst progressing against the Scottish Government’s target to decarbonising the rail network. The OBC outlined that total project cost was estimated to be £100 million to £120 million and that it was estimated to be operational in December 2024. The FBC outlined that total project cost was estimated to be £139.8 million and that it was estimated to be operational in December 2025.

Progress at December 2023: The FBC was approved in June 2023, with funding announced by the Minister for Transport in September 2023. The project is now in construction.

The total cost of the project is now estimated at £139.8 million which is an increase to that previously reported. This is due to further refinement of the cost and additional scope of the Hairmyres Loop extension and accessibility enhancements.

As per the approved FBC, the project is now estimated to be operational in December 2025 which is later than that outlined in OBC. This is due to re-phasing of the delivery of the electrification programme and seeking increased cost and programme assurance from Network Rail.

Progress at August 2024: No change to FBC cost or timing since the last report.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: Markle Level Crossing Bridge Replacement

Business case approved stages: Closure of Markle Level Crossing (in East Lothian) on the East Coast Main Line and its replacement with an overbridge. The OBC outlined that the total project cost was estimated to be £9.2 million and that the project was estimated to be operational by the end of March 2024.

Progress at December 2023: The construction start date is now planned for March 2024 with the estimated operational date now being December 2024, which is later than previously reported in OBC. This is due to delays in achieving project consents and obtaining completion of planning conditions.

The anticipated final cost is now £11.6 million which is an increase to that previously reported in OBC. This is due to primarily inflation plus land costs and the unanticipated cost of compliance with planning conditions.

Progress at August 2024: Construction was approved in February 2024 via an Agreement between East Lothian Council, Network Rail and Transport Scotland and commenced as planned thereafter in March 2024. The anticipated final cost is £12.5 million which is an increase to that previously reported due to impact of inflation on the contract.

Whilst construction is proceeding well, uncharted buried services have been located directly within the bridge construction site. These are impacting the construction programme and the impact of this in terms of time, cost and redesign is currently being evaluated. The estimated operational date is now April 2025, which is later than previously reported, due to the unforeseen conditions encountered on site.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: Borders Railway Decarbonisation

Business case approved stages: Project to facilitate the decarbonisation of rolling stock emissions on the Borders Railway through the installation of railway electrification infrastructure. This infrastructure will allow the replacement of the diesel rolling stock which currently operate on the route with new battery electric rolling stock. The OBC outlined that the total project cost was estimated to be £32 million and that the project was estimated to commence construction in 2023 and be operational in May 2027 (£14.4 million of total project cost is attributable to the Tweedbank Feeder Station).

Progress at December 2023 : A refresh of the Rail Services Decarbonisation Action Plan is underway (as reported in March 2023 update). The outcome of this will allow for the project to be replanned. Timescales for this project will be determined by the wider programme and the rolling stock procurement exercise.

A contract to provide a new Feeder Station at Tweedbank has been placed with National Grid PLC, with the Feeder Station planned to enter service in September 2026. This will be used to provide power to the planned railway electrification at the south end of the Borders Line. The anticipated final cost of these works is £14.4 million. A contract has also been placed with National Grid PLC for a new Feeder Station at Portobello. This is due to enter service in December 2025. The primary purpose of this Feeder Station to provide additional power and network resilience in the Edinburgh area. In addition, it will support the planned decarbonised Borders Line rail services. The anticipated cost of these works is £32.4 million.

Progress at August 2024: A refresh of the Rail Services Decarbonisation Action Plan continues and the outcome of this will allow for the project to be re-planned. Timescales for project will be determined by the associated rolling stock procurement exercise and the needs of the wider rail projects pipeline.

Once the new Feeder Station at Tweedbank has entered service, this will be used to provide power to the planned railway electrification at the south end of the Borders Line. Once the new Feeder Station at Portobello has entered service, this will provide additional power and network resilience in the Edinburgh area and in addition it will support the planned decarbonised Borders Line rail services. Costs will be re-estimated as part of the replanning process.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: Fife Decarbonisation

Business case approved stages: Project to facilitate the decarbonisation of rolling stock emissions on the Fife Railway through the installation of railway electrification infrastructure. This infrastructure will allow the replacement of the diesel rolling stock which currently operate on the route with new Battery Electric rolling stock. The OBC outlined that the total project cost was estimated to be £210 million (exclusive of Feeder Station costs) with the full project estimated be operational in December 2025.

Progress at December 2023: A refresh of the Rail Services Decarbonisation Action Plan is underway (as reported in March 2023 update). The outcome of this will allow for the project to be re-planned. Timescales for this project will be determined by the wider programme and the rolling stock procurement exercise.

A contract to provide a new Feeder Station at Thornton has been placed with National Grid PLC. With the Feeder Station planned to enter service in September 2026. This will be used to provide power to the planned railway electrification in Fife. The anticipated final cost of these works is £29.4 million.

Progress at August 2024: A refresh of the Rail Services Decarbonisation Action Plan continues and the outcome of this will allow for the project to be re-planned. Timescales for project will be determined by the associated rolling stock procurement exercise and the needs of the wider rail projects pipeline.

Once the new Feeder Station at Thornton has entered service, this will be used to provide power to the planned railway electrification in Fife. Costs will be re-estimated as part of the replanning process.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: CMAL – Two new 100 metre ferries

Business case approved stages: Procurement commenced and Pre-Qualification

Questionnaires were issued by CMAL (Caledonian Maritime Assets Ltd) on 15 October 2014 with tender returns on 31 March 2015 and the Preferred Bidder announced on 31 August 2015. The contract worth £97 million to build the two 100m ‘dual-fuel’ ferries for the Clyde and Hebrides Ferry Service (CHFS) was awarded to Ferguson Marine Engineering Limited (FMEL) on 16 October 2015. The first ferry was expected to be delivered in May 2018 with the second vessel following a few months later. Ferguson Marine (Port Glasgow) Limited (FMPG) purchased FMEL and its assets in December 2019 following liquidation. This included responsibility for the delivery of vessels 801 and 802.

Progress at December 2023: On 21 December 2023, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of FMPG updated the Scottish Parliament’s Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee (NZET) with advice that cost to completion and target handover date estimates for both vessels would be reviewed and notified by end January 2024.

The previous CEO update of 29 September 2023 stated that the total estimated cost to complete both vessels is now £239 million plus between c£5 million to c£30 million for contingency. This was an increase to that previously reported at March 2023 update and is due mainly to rework, contractor cost and inflationary pressures. The CEO indicated that a revised cost forecast would be made available at the end of January 2024. The Scottish Government is currently planning further due diligence on these figures, which is being supported by external, independent financial advisors to ensure that a rigorous approach is taken to scrutinising this request for additional funding.

The CEO’s December 2023 update also stated that Vessel 801 (MV Glen Sannox) is now expected to be delivered up to 2 months later than the previously indicated date of March 2024 at the CEO’s September 2023 update. This is mainly due to contractor availability, delay to dry docking because of weather, design and certification issues. Vessel 802 (MV Glen Rosa) is now expected to be delivered by end of May 2025. This is later than previously reported at March 2023 update and is due in part to the cumulative effect from 801. Both delivery dates are conditional on a number of risks not materialising. These are being actively monitored and any change will inform future reporting.

Progress at August 2024: The Board of FMPG removed David Tydeman from the role of Chief Executive Officer on 26 March 2024 and appointed non-executive director John Petticrew as interim CEO.

On 31 May 2024, the interim CEO updated the Scottish Parliament’s NZET Committee that the expected cost to completion from the point of public ownership for both vessels was £299.1 million including contingency. This is an increase to that previously reported and is due mainly to rework, contractor cost and inflationary pressures.

On 2 August 2024, the interim CEO signalled that the handover date for vessel 801 (MV Glen Sannox) had been extended from 30 September 2024. This is later than previously reported and is due to issues with the outfit and commissioning of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) system with consequential impact on other areas of outfitting and commissioning. FMPG launched vessel 802 (MV Glen Rosa) on 9 April 2024 and yard is now working to an expected delivery date of 30 September 2025.

Contact for public enquiries: email: vikki.halliday@gov.scot