Infrastructure Investment Plan 2021-22 to 2025-26: major capital projects progress update - December 2023

Sector: Transport

Project: A9 Dualling Tomatin to Moy

Business case approved stages: Third project phase of A9 Dualling programme involves approximately six miles (9.6km) of online widening of existing single carriageway to an all-purpose dual carriageway, extending from existing dual carriageways to the south of Tomatin and to the north of Moy. The original Outline Business Case (OBC) outlined that the project was estimated to cost £197 million and planned to be operational in December 2025. An updated OBC was approved in August 2023 which outlined that the project is estimated to cost £254 million and is planned to be operational in the second half of 2027.

Progress at March 2023: The project is to be revised following the decision not to make an award under the previous procurement. Parliament was advised of this on 8 February 2023. The project is currently in preparation for a new procurement and an OBC is currently being updated along with cost estimates. It is estimated that a contract will be awarded by the end of 2023.

Progress at December 2023: The updated OBC was approved in August 2023 and the project was advertised to the market on 5 September 2023, the same day that Parliament was advised of this decision. The OBC outlines that the project is estimated to cost £254 million and that it is planned to be operational in the second half of 2027.

The increase in the revised OBC cost is linked to inflationary effects and the cost of the change in contract strategy following the decision not to make an award under the previous procurement.

It is estimated that the earliest possible contract award, subject to no unforeseen circumstances, will be early summer 2024.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: Reston and East Linton Rail Stations

Business case approved stages: Delivery of two new fully accessible Rail Stations with car parks (Reston Station in the Scottish Borders and East Linton Station in East Lothian). The OBC outlined that project was estimated to cost £35 million and that it is planned to be operational in December 2022. The FBC outlined that the overall project was estimated to cost £35 million and was planned to be operational in summer 2023.

Progress at March 2023: No change to timing since the last report (as reported in March 2022 update, Reston Station entered service in May 2022 with East Linton Station in construction and planned to be operational by March 2024).

The overall Anticipated Final Cost (AFC) is now estimated to be £36.6 million to £38.2 million. This increase is due to unforeseen construction challenges with East Linton Station and a contractor claim in relation to the completed works at Reston Station which is currently being evaluated.

Progress at December 2023: East Linton Station opened to passengers in December 2023. This is approximately three months ahead of the previously reported date of March 2024.

The Anticipated Final Cost (AFC) range is now estimated to be £37.8 million to £38.2 million. This is due to improved certainty on the anticipated final cost of the works. Work continues to evaluate the contractor claim in relation to the works at Reston Station.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: Barrhead Rail Enhancement

Business case approved stages: Project is part of the East Kilbride and Barrhead Rail Enhancement scheme. This scheme is to decarbonise the corridors and to provide improved access to the rail network for the communities along these corridors. The scheme will make rail services reliable, efficient, and attractive to passengers and support modal shift whilst progressing against Scottish Government's target to decarbonising the rail network. The FBC outlined that the total project cost was estimated to be £63 million and was planned to be operational in December 2023.

Progress at March 2023: No change to cost or timing since the last report (as reported in March 2022 update, the project commenced construction in April 2022 and is progressing to programme).

Progress at December 2023: No change to cost or timing since the last report.

The project is now operational with electric services operating on the route from 11 December 2023.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: Levenmouth Rail project

Business case approved stages: Scheme will re-open the disused rail line between

Thornton junction and Leven in Fife, providing new passenger rail services to connect the Levenmouth area to Fife, Edinburgh, and the wider rail network. The OBC was predicated on a project cost estimate of £70 million and it is estimated to be operational by December 2023. The FBC was predicated on an anticipated final cost of £116 million and an estimated operational date of spring 2024.

Progress at March 2023: No change to cost or timing since the last report (as reported in March 2022 update, the approved FBC reflected an expanded scope and additional investment and that the project commenced construction).

Progress at December 2023: No change to cost since the last report.

The construction of the project is progressing well, and driver training is commencing in January 2024. The operational start date is now June 2024. This is in line with the national operational timetable change date. An interim timetable of one train per hour will be introduced on operational start date due to rolling stock availability and engagement is ongoing with ScotRail (via Scottish Rail Holdings) to deliver the full timetable and FBC requirements of two trains per hour.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: East Kilbride Rail Enhancement

Business case approved stages: Project is part of the East Kilbride and Barrhead Rail Enhancement scheme. The scheme will make rail services reliable, efficient, and attractive to passengers and support modal shift whilst progressing against the Scottish Government's target to decarbonising the rail network. The OBC outlined that total project cost was estimated to be £100 million to £120 million and that it was estimated to be operational in December 2024. The FBC outlines that total project cost is estimated to be £139.8 million and that it is estimated to be operational in December 2025.

Progress at March 2023: No change to timing since the last report (as outlined at OBC, project is estimated to be operational December 2024).

The total cost of the project is now estimated at £136.8 million which is an increase in that previously reported. This is due to further refinement of the Full Business Case (FBC) cost and additional scope of the Hairmyres Loop extension and accessibility enhancements.

The project went to Transport Scotland's Investment and Decision-Making Board (IDM) in November 2022 and instruction was given to provide further assurance on the programme and the cost. Network Rail is working through providing further details to Transport Scotland and this should be finalised in the coming months. The project will then return to IDM Board prior to being provided to the Minister for Transport for endorsement.

Progress at December 2023: The FBC was approved in June 2023, with funding announced by the Minister for Transport in September 2023. The project is now in construction.

The total cost of the project is now estimated at £139.8 million which is an increase to that previously reported. This is due to further refinement of the cost and additional scope of the Hairmyres Loop extension and accessibility enhancements.

As per the approved FBC, the project is now estimated to be operational in December 2025 which is later than that outlined at OBC. This is due to re-phasing of the delivery of the electrification programme and seeking increased cost and programme assurance from Network Rail.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: Markle Level Crossing Bridge Replacement

Business case approved stages: Closure of Markle Level Crossing (in East Lothian) on the East Coast Main Line and its replacement with an overbridge. The OBC outlines that the total project cost is estimated to be £9.2 million and that the project is estimated to be operational by the end of March 2024.

Progress at March 2023: The project is in design and progressing to programme and estimated to commence construction in June 2023.

Progress at December 2023: The construction start date is now planned for March 2024 with the estimated operational date now being December 2024, which is later than previously reported. This is due to delays in achieving project consents and obtaining completion of planning conditions.

The anticipated final cost is now £11.6 million which is an increase to that previously reported. This is due to primarily inflation plus land costs and the unanticipated cost of compliance with planning conditions.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: Borders Railway Decarbonisation

Business case approved stages: Project to facilitate the decarbonisation of rolling stock emissions on the Borders Railway through the installation of railway electrification infrastructure. This infrastructure will allow the replacement of the diesel rolling stock which currently operate on the route with new battery electric rolling stock. The OBC outlines that the total project cost is estimated to be £32 million and that the project is estimated to commence construction in 2023 and be operational in May 2027 (£14.4 million of total project cost is attributable to the Tweedbank Feeder Station).

Progress at March 2023: The Decarbonisation Action Plan is due for a refresh during 2023. The outcome of this will allow for the project to be replanned and timescales will be determined by the wider pipeline programme and the rolling stock procurement exercise.

Progress at December 2023 : A refresh of the Rail Services Decarbonisation Action Plan is underway. The outcome of this will allow for the project to be replanned. Timescales for this project will be determined by the wider programme and the rolling stock procurement exercise.

A contract to provide a new Feeder Station at Tweedbank has been placed with National Grid PLC, with the Feeder Station planned to enter service in September 2026. This will be used to provide power to the planned railway electrification at the south end of the Borders Line. The anticipated final cost of these works is £14.4 million. A contract has also been placed with National Grid PLC for a new Feeder Station at Portobello. This is due to enter service in December 2025. The primary purpose of this Feeder Station to provide additional power and network resilience in the Edinburgh area. In addition, it will support the planned decarbonised Borders Line rail services. The anticipated cost of these works is £32.4 million.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: Fife Decarbonisation

Business case approved stages: Project to facilitate the decarbonisation of rolling stock emissions on the Fife Railway through the installation of railway electrification infrastructure. This infrastructure will allow the replacement of the diesel rolling stock which currently operate on the route with new Battery Electric rolling stock. The OBC outlines that the total project cost is estimated to be £210 million (exclusive of Feeder Station costs) with the full project estimated be operational in December 2025.

Progress at March 2023: The Decarbonisation Action Plan is due for a refresh during 2023. The outcome of this will allow for the project to be replanned and timescales will be determined by the wider pipeline programme and the rolling stock procurement exercise.

Progress at December 2023: A refresh of the Rail Services Decarbonisation Action Plan is underway. The outcome of this will allow for the project to be re-planned. Timescales for this project will be determined by the wider programme and the rolling stock procurement exercise.

A contract to provide a new Feeder Station at Thornton has been placed with National Grid PLC. With the Feeder Station planned to enter service in September 2026. This will be used to provide power to the planned railway electrification in Fife. The anticipated final cost of these works is £29.4 million.

Contact for public enquiries: email: info@transport.gov.scot

Project: CMAL - Two new 100 metre ferries

Business case approved stages: Procurement commenced and Pre-Qualification

Questionnaires were issued by CMAL (Caledonian Maritime Assets Ltd) on 15 October 2014 with tender returns on 31 March 2015 and the Preferred Bidder announced on 31 August 2015. The contract worth £97 million to build the two 100m €˜dual-fuel' ferries for the Clyde and Hebrides Ferry Service (CHFS) was awarded on 16 October 2015. The first ferry was expected to be delivered in May 2018 with the second vessel following a few months later.

Progress at March 2023: No change to cost since the last report (as reported in September 2022 update, the total estimated cost to complete is £202.6 million, including £6.2 million contingency).

On 16 May 2023, the Cabinet Secretary for Wellbeing Economy, Fair Work and Energy made a statement to Parliament on the due diligence review of the revised cost to complete estimates provided by Ferguson Marine Port Glasgow (FMPG) in September 2022 (£202.6 million (including £6.2 million contingency)) to deliver vessels 801 and 802.

The statement confirmed commitment to delivery of both vessels at the FMPG yard and that the value for money case had been made for vessel 801 (MV Glen Sannox). However, the case for vessel 802 was more challenging and the narrow value for money case had not been made. A Written Authority has been provided to the Accountable Officer to continue 802's funding. The statement also made clear that FMPG should do everything possible to improve productivity, maximise operational efficiency and ensure that there is a tight control on costs as well as having a focus on delivering the vessels as quickly as possible.

The Chief executive Officer (CEO) of FMPG updated the Scottish Parliament's Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee on 16 March 2023 by setting out revised delivery dates for vessels. Hull 801 is now expected autumn 2023 with the backstop contract date by 31 December 2023. This is later than previously reported and is due to the CEO indicating that the revised schedule is to address design gaps and build errors, some dating back over many years. Hull 802 is expected late summer 2024 with the backstop contract date by 31 December 2024. This is also later than previously reported and is due to the focus on the completion of 801.

The statement by the Cabinet Secretary confirmed acceptance of the updated delivery dates set out by the CEO on 16 March 2023.

Progress at December 2023: On 21 December 2023, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of FMPG updated the Scottish Parliament's Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee (NZET) with advice that cost to completion and target handover date estimates for both vessels would be reviewed and notified by end January 2024.

The previous CEO update of 29 September 2023 stated that the total estimated cost to complete both vessels is now £239 million plus between c£5 million to c£30 million for contingency. This was an increase to that previously reported and is due mainly to rework, contractor cost and inflationary pressures. The CEO indicated that a revised cost forecast would be made available at the end of January 2024. The Scottish Government is currently planning further due diligence on these figures, which is being supported by external, independent financial advisors to ensure that a rigorous approach is taken to scrutinising this request for additional funding.

The CEO's December 2023 update also stated that Vessel 801 (MV Glen Sannox) is now expected to be delivered up to 2 months later than the previously indicated date of March 2024 at the CEO's September 2023 update. This is mainly due to contractor availability, delay to dry docking because of weather, design and certification issues. Vessel 802 (MV Glen Rosa) is now expected to be delivered by end of May 2025. This is later than previously reported and is due in part to the cumulative effect from 801. Both delivery dates are conditional on a number of risks not materialising. These are being actively monitored and any change will inform future reporting.

Contact for public enquiries: email: vikki.halliday@gov.scot