Internal migration in Scotland and the UK: trends and policy lessons

Executive Summary

This report analyses internal migration within Scotland, and between Scotland and the rest of the UK (rUK). While there has been considerable focus on international migration to Scotland in the UK, far less attention has been paid to internal migratory flows. This is partly because there are no legal restrictions to such mobility, meaning that internal movement tends not to be the object of immigration policy measures. Nonetheless, internal migration has significant impacts on both sending and receiving areas, affecting population structure, labour markets and economic growth, as well as the attractiveness and viability of local communities. It is therefore important to understand the geographic distribution, dynamics and impacts of internal migration.

This report draws on a range of administrative, survey and census data that can help us understand patterns of internal migration. The most recent data available at the time of writing is used throughout. Such analysis can also help inform the range of measures that can be taken at local and national level to incentivise or support internal movement and settlement. With this in mind, the report is structured in two main parts. After defining and explaining internal migration (Chapter 1), we draw on available data to examine the main patterns of migration within Scotland (Chapter 2) and between Scotland and rUK (Chapter 3). Based on a survey of Scottish local authorities, in part two we map the range of measures local government has taken to attempt to steer internal migration and settlement and explore implications for potential future strategies (Chapter 4).

Defining and Explaining Internal Migration

Internal migration occurs where a person or household moves to a new location within the same country, whether for a short-term basis (3-12 months) or for the long-term (more than 12 months). In order to distinguish internal migration from a residential move, we assume that such movement also involves a change in social circumstances, typically (though not always) implying a change of employment for those who are economically active.

Migration theories have tended to explain decisions to migrate in terms of the balance of opportunities and risks associated with movement. Migration may be an individual or a household decision, usually taken with the aim of improving life chances in terms of employment and income, as well as other social and cultural aspects of well-being (ranging from educational opportunities, housing and public amenities, to the cultural vibrancy of places of destination). The balance of opportunities and risks tend to change over the life course: for example, younger, single people are most likely to move because of lower constraints and higher rewards over their lifetime; families may face greater constraints to moving, but can be motivated by a desire to enhance educational and career opportunities for their children; while older migrants may be seeking suitable retirement destinations.

The risks of migration leading to adverse outcomes may be partly offset by migration networks (family and friends who are already resident in the area of destination), who can share information and facilitate integration. The risks of migration are generally assumed to increase as the distance rises, because of the higher costs of moving and cultural adjustment. Thus internal migration may be expected to be more prevalent than international movement. However, internal migrants still face barriers linked to finding employment, affordable housing, schooling, and adjusting to different socio-cultural conditions. Understanding these constraints can help inform local and national policy interventions to encourage mobility.

Migration within Scotland

Most data on internal migration is drawn from records that count people crossing an administrative boundary within a country (a local authority or health board), but such movement does not always indicate a significant change of circumstances. Thus only 70% of the moves between Scotland’s 32 local authorities also involve a move between its 11 health boards. The implication is that not all of these moves constitute migration (in line with our definition of migration above). Indeed, many moves across local authorities may be linked to opportunities and constraints in the housing market, with a small move compatible with commuting to the same job.

Drawing on census data, we also find that 50% of people who moved in 2010-11 moved less than 5 miles, and 70% less than 10 miles. Scottish Household Survey data from 2016-17 similarly finds that most (67%) people living in Scotland have never moved, or only moved a distance of less than 5 miles. This distinction between short and long-distance moves needs to be born in mind when analysing data on internal migration within Scotland.

However, a comparison of local authority and health board movement between 2001-2017 suggests a stable pattern of movement across the two measures. Thus while figures based on local authority registrations may overstate the level of intra-Scottish migration, they show a similar trend over time to that revealed by health board movements. Notable within these data is the high level of outflows from Lothian, Greater Glasgow and the Clyde. However, Lothian and Greater Glasgow also draw in migrants from almost all other health boards in Scotland, partly because of the high level of student mobility into Edinburgh and Glasgow. Among all of these flows, young people dominate.

Looking at flows by type of area (the six-fold urban/rural split used by Scottish Government), we find that in-migration and out-migration rates (per head of population) tend to be highest in rural and remote areas, and relatively low for urban areas. The lowest rates are found in ‘other urban areas’, which mainly comprise towns in the central belt. However, overall levels of inflows into urban areas are far higher than for rural areas, with an average of 11,500 more people moving annually into large urban areas between 2010-11 and 2017-18, compared to 4,800 moving to accessible rural locations.

Migration between Scotland and rUK

Scotland has enjoyed positive net migration from outside of Scotland of around 20,000 p.a. over the past two decades, although this figure has fluctuated annually. Around two-fifths of these flows represent migration between Scotland and rUK. Most people who arrive in Scotland are aged 18 to 29. Migration from rUK has two peaks: ages 18-20 (related to student migration), and those in their late 20s and early 30s.

Out-migration from Scotland to rUK is concentrated in the same age groups as in-migration, though the peak in ages 18-20 is strikingly lower, suggesting that a lower proportion of young people leave Scotland to study in England. Out-migration rates, especially for those in their late 20s and early 30s, have significantly declined over the past decades, indicating an increased likelihood of students from the rUK staying in Scotland after studies.

Most migrants from rUK move to the two largest cities, Edinburgh and Glasgow. The largest group of out-migrants also comes from the two largest cities, although out-migration has declined over time. While most big cities (except Edinburgh) experienced negative net migration with the rUK in the beginning of this century, the patterns have changed: all cities (except Aberdeen and surrounding areas) now receive more migrants from the rUK than lose. This supports the idea that many young people from rUK stay and work in Scotland post-study. On average, migrants (or people who moved a year prior to the census date) have higher educational levels than non-migrants. The percentage of individuals with degrees is 10-20% higher among migrants than non-migrants.

Many migrants, especially those who move within the UK, are return migrants, i.e. moving back to their country of birth. Return migrants account for 40% of migrants from Scotland to England and 25% from rUK to Scotland. People born abroad form a significant portion, one-fifth, of migrants between Scotland and the rUK; and they move in both directions. The analysis thus does not support the popular notion that international migrants mostly move from Scotland to England.

Local Authority Strategies and Policies

Many Scottish local authorities have deep concerns about population issues in their areas. Whilst for a few (notably Edinburgh and the Lothians) concerns are focused on growing population and the potential strain on services and housing, for most the main issue is one of labour shortages and depopulation. For most west coast areas and predominantly rural areas, the major concern is one of labour shortages, and the loss of younger, and especially more highly educated residents, who are attracted to larger towns and cities for study, better paid employment and social/cultural opportunities. Ageing of the local population places pressure on health and social care provision. The loss of younger and more highly educated workers is linked to shortages of skilled labour in key sectors ranging from tourism and agriculture, to care and health.

Some local authorities have sought to implement local level initiatives and campaigns to attract and retain people. Given the lack of policy levers at local level, most initiatives and strategies are focused on encouraging in-migration from other areas of Scotland and rUK, rather than targeting international migration. Some local authorities have introduced measures to incentivise relocation to their area, but most recognise that in-migration can only be one factor alongside others in tackling their population issues. Economic regeneration, investment in employment opportunities to attract and retain the resident working age population are highlighted as equally if not more important.

Given that most in-flows to these areas come from other (neighbouring) areas of Scotland, there is a risk that local authority strategies may create or exacerbate competition between regions for population with no net gain to the overall population.

Conclusions

Most residential moves in Scotland occur over short distances, and are influenced by the housing market, as well as transport infrastructure and thus opportunities for commuting. It is important that the Scottish Government gain a clear understanding of these interactions, so that it can plan housing and infrastructural investments with a view to promoting mobility, while discouraging patterns of commuting that may run counter to environmental goals.

In terms of intra-UK migration, Scotland has recently experienced positive net migration from rUK, reversing a period of net outflows during the previous 50 years. However, there is limited research explaining the factors that attract rUK migrants to Scotland, suggesting the need for further enquiry including a survey of migrants.

Migration is heavily concentrated among the young, and to some extent among the better educated. In combination, this results in a very significant movement of young people to Scotland’s major cities, which offer a wide range of higher education opportunities. For these destinations, the influx of young people enhances economic dynamism, and also creates a relatively low demand for public services (other than education). In contrast, those “left behind” areas have a much older population, higher demand for public services, and a lack of well-qualified young people, constraining their growth, or even leading to their decline.

This raises a fundamental question about the allocation of public resources between, on the one hand, Scotland’s large cities which appear to be the likely engines of future economic growth; and, on the other, the wide hinterland where demographic forces and the present configuration of higher education institutions is leading to an ageing population increasingly dependent on public service support. Equity considerations suggest that public service support should be equally accessible, regardless of location. Yet this may become a more difficult aspiration to realise with the continuing ageing of the population in smaller non-urban areas.

Local authorities face challenges in implementing policies to attract migrants either from within the UK or overseas. This is partly because they lack the policy levers that might improve migrants’ outcomes. Improved co-ordination and collaboration both between local authorities, as well as with national governments, is needed in order for local policy initiatives to be more effective and to avoid unhelpful competition between local authorities for the same residents. A careful review is needed of the range of policy levers that can influence migration and settlement decisions, in a way that promotes the wellbeing of both host communities, and migrants themselves.