Internal migration in Scotland and the UK: trends and policy lessons

5. Conclusions

Since the turn-of-the-century, more people have chosen to come to Scotland than to leave. This is true both for emigrants from rUK as well as the rest of the world. This recent pattern of net in-migration reverses a period of net outflows from Scotland during the previous 50 years. While part of this trend may be explained by more restrictive immigration policies in traditional destinations for Scots, this does not explain patterns of movement between Scotland and rUK. It would be useful to develop a better understanding of the causes of intra-UK migration, and particularly the factors that attract rUK migrants to Scotland, for example through conducting a survey specifically directed at migrants.

Most residential moves in Scotland occur over short distances. Longer distance moves which are likely to include changed labour market and social circumstances, as well as of residence, are much less common. Both types of move are registered as migration if a local authority boundary is crossed. Policies relating to internal migration should be aware of this distinction.

Policies relating to shorter distance residential moves interact with commuting and therefore with transport infrastructure. It is important that the Scottish Government has a clearer understanding of the opportunities and constraints associated with this interaction, so that it can plan infrastructural investments with a view to promoting mobility.

Both long-distance and short distance migration interact with the housing market. We have found that those migrating 1-year or less are much more likely to rent their accommodation. The rental market is important for providing opportunities for migration, but lack of access to owner occupation may reduce the probability of longer-term migration.

Migration is heavily concentrated among the young. The probability of movement falls steeply with age. The better educated are also much more likely to migrate. In combination, these effects are resulting in a very significant move of young people to Scotland’s major cities, which offer a wide range of higher education opportunities. For these destinations, the influx of young people enhances economic dynamism. Also, because public service usage by young people is largely focused on education, their demand for other public services, particularly health, is relatively low. In contrast, those “left behind” areas have a much older population, higher demand for public services and the lack of well-qualified young people is a constraint on growth.

This raises a fundamental question about Scotland’s future economic and social development. It concerns the allocation of public resources between, on the one hand, Scotland’s large cities which seem the likely engines of future economic growth and, on the other, the wide hinterland where demographic forces and the present configuration of higher education institutions is leading to an ageing population increasingly dependent on public service support. Equity considerations suggest that public service support should be equally accessible, regardless of location. Yet this may become a more difficult aspiration to realise with the continuing ageing of the hinterland population.

Local authorities find it difficult to implement successful policies to attract migrants either from within the UK or overseas. This is partly because they lack the policy levers that might improve their outcomes. Improved co-ordination and collaboration both between local authorities, as well as with national governments, is needed in order for local policy initiatives to be more effective and to avoid unhelpful competition between local authorities for the same residents. A careful review is needed of the range of policy levers required to ensure the right levels of migration to and between different areas of Scotland and the mechanisms by which such migration would lead to successful experiences of stay (whether short-term or of longer duration) for both host communities and migrants themselves.