Just Transition Commission: background report

1. Introduction

1.1. This report presents publicly available data and information for Scotland on what is known about current and projected:

• Population
• Labour market
• Business and industry
• Household income distribution
• Skills and skills development
• Greenhouse gas emissions

1.2. In particular, information is presented for the current situation (most recently available) and projections up to 2050. Projections to 2030 are also included where available, as these chime with the timing of reporting on Sustainable Development Goals and Nationally Determined Contributions to reduction of greenhouse gas emissions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

1.3. Each of the domains above are presented in turn, with:

• a brief outline of relevant policy objectives in Scotland,
• analysis of the data pertaining to the most recent data available
• available forecasts or projections for the short to medium term
• long-term forecasts to 2030 and 2050 or as near as possible where available.

1.4. We have reviewed all the forecasts presented in all of the domains and can confirm that none explicitly consider the potential impact arising from policy action necessary to meet greenhouse gas targets in future. Nor do any of the forecasts explicitly model the potential impact of the UK leaving the European Union.