Justice Secretary: Statement on Scotland's prison population

Thank you Presiding Officer

In my previous statement to Parliament in May, I set out the challenge we face in addressing the prison population and the need for immediate and continued action.

The difficult, but necessary, step of emergency early release over the summer had an immediate impact. The population reduced from 8,270 to just below 7,900 and the risk to the safe operation of our prisons was temporarily averted.

As I highlighted in May, the impact was expected to be temporary and that has proven to be the case. The population has continued to rise and once again reached critical levels.  As of this morning, there were 8322 people in custody, 27% of whom are on remand.

And it is not just about the numbers; it is also about the complex needs of the population and the persistent pressures on prison staff.

I remain grateful to the Scottish Prison Service staff for their continued resilience. I have seen first hand their excellent work to maintain positive relationships in prisons and their ability to find solutions.

The latest projections through to January 2025 indicate that the prison population will likely continue to rise. Without intervention this would take us into an unsustainable position and we cannot, and must not, allow this to transpire.

Over the last decade the average length of prison sentences has increased while there has been a consistently high remand population. There is no single lever to address this ongoing rise and that is why we must continue to pursue a wide range of actions.

Since my last statement, the implementation of the Children (Care and Justice) Act and the transfer of all under 18s to secure care has freed up additional capacity at HMP Polmont. In addition, the Scottish Prison Service continue to maximise all available remaining capacity across the estate.  Despite these efforts, these are actions which will only provide very short term relief if population trends continue.

There is also a continued focus on optimising the use of Home Detention Curfew. Numbers were reduced by emergency early release and are now rising again, currently at around 107. 

I can confirm plans to lay Regulations later this year to enable GPS technology to be used to monitor individuals being released on Home Detention Curfew. Subject to Parliamentary approval, these Regulations would come into force in January.

We also have high levels of use of electronic monitoring. Over 2,100 people are being monitored on any given day, with electronically monitored bail now available in every local authority area.

We are also increasing our investment to address this significant challenge.  In addition to the 10% uplift in the Prison Service resource budget, we increased our funding to community justice by £14m this year to further strengthen alternatives to custody.

Building that capacity takes time, but recent statistics show a marked and sustained increase in the use of diversion from prosecution, structured deferred sentences and bail supervision.

These actions are having an impact and have reduced the growing population from where it would be without them. However, it is evident that further action  is necessary across the justice system.

The independent functions and decision making across the justice system will always be fully respected. However, it is vital that partners collaborate to ensure the system works effectively and in the shared understanding of the critical risk that an increasing prison population poses to the entire justice system.

The Lord Advocate will update Parliament after this statement, in her role as the independent head of the systems of criminal prosecution and the investigation of deaths. And I am grateful to the Lord Advocate for her leadership and engagement on this important issue.

Presiding Officer, in my last statement to Parliament, I set out our intention to look at how we manage the release of long-term prisoners and to consult on proposals for legislative change.

The responses to our consultation, which sought views on bringing forward the point at which most long-term prisoners are released automatically, were thoughtful and constructive and analysis has been published today.

There was notable support for increasing the time some long-term prisoners spend in the community under supervision as part of their sentence, and recognition of the benefits this can bring. However, there were also  concerns  that changing the long-term prisoner release point at pace would present significant practical difficulties.

Given the need for any changes to take effect quickly, this prompted an exploration of alternative approaches, and I noted with interest the proposals put forward by the Institute for Government in July. Those proposals included the option to change the release point for certain prisoners from the halfway point to either 45% or 40% of the sentence. And of course, the UK Government has recently implemented the latter, with a reported 1,700 released in September with more to come

While our justice systems are not the same, I intend to pursue a similar policy to change the point at which most short-term prisoners are released from the current 50% to after 40% of their sentence has been served. This proposal would come with statutory exclusions in relation to domestic abuse and sexual offences, recognising the particular concerns which will arise in relation to such offences.

This will require primary legislation, which I plan to introduce in November and will ask Parliament’s permission to progress on an emergency basis.

I remain committed to considering changes to the long-term prisoner release point and will seek subordinate legislation-making powers in the Bill to allow us to return to this. The immediate focus of the Bill, however, will be on changing the release point for short-term prisoners.

Short-term prisoners are those sentenced to less than four years in prison and are generally not subject to supervision on release. This approach would therefore result in relatively small changes to release dates, as well as avoiding some of the complexities highlighted in the consultation.

My intention is that any changes of release point would apply to those already in custody to allow for both an immediate and sustained impact on the prison population. We estimate that the new release point, after being implemented, could result in the population being between 260 and 390 lower than it would be without any change.

This will not resolve the prison population by itself, but importantly it is sustainable action rather than a temporary measure.

I recognise very much the concerns that may arise from victims and their families and I am committed to working closely with Victim Support Organisations. Public safety remains paramount which is why I am focusing on short term prisoners only and with built-in exemptions.

Whilst the priority is upon actions that can deliver a sustained reduction to the prison population, it is vital that plans are in place should the prison population reach the point where more immediate action is needed. 

It is not my intention to ask Parliament to authorise the use of emergency early release again at this stage. However, I am aware that if it is necessary and there is no alternative, it may be needed.

We will therefore begin contingency planning on this option – working with key delivery partners, including Victim Support Organisations, learning from the emergency early release during the summer and to make sure that plans are robust, with a clear focus on public protection.

Presiding Officer, I have outlined today vital steps we must take towards addressing the rising prison population.

I am, however, clear that further and deeper action will be needed. The challenges we face are complex and there isn’t a single or straightforward solution.

Of course, we must continue to tackle crime, building on the fact that recorded crime is down almost 40% since 2006/07.

We must continue to strengthen community justice. Community-based interventions and services help ensure justice is done and can be more effective in reducing reoffending and assisting with rehabilitation than short term custodial sentences.

The safety and wellbeing of SPS staff and those in their care must also remain at the forefront of our actions to ensure that prisons continue to function effectively.

And we must ensure that we have a prison estate which houses those who pose the risk, the greatest risk to the public, and provides the full range of support needed for people to leave on a better path and never to turn back.

This will require a collective response but is necessary to deliver what we all want to see - less crime, fewer victims and safer communities.