Labour Market Statistics for 16 to 24 year olds: Scotland and the United Kingdom - January to December 2023

Introduction

This publication contains the latest estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for 16 to 24 year olds. Estimates are for Scotland and the United Kingdom and cover the period January to December 2023. Data are sourced from the Annual Population Survey (APS); first released on 13 March 2024 by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

An Official Statistics in Development Publication for Scotland

These statistics are official statistics in development. Official statistics in development may be new or existing statistics, and will be tested with users, in line with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Scottish Government statistics are regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

These statistics were reviewed, as part of a compliance check, against the Code of Practice in May 2021. This review found a range of positive features that demonstrate the trustworthiness, quality and value of this bulletin.

Since then a number of improvements have been made including:

• incorporating a key findings section
• presenting the figures as “estimates”
• including confidence intervals in the tables
• providing more detailed information on quality assurance carried out while preparing the publication

Additional estimates have also been included for employment levels and rates for people aged 16 to 24 in local authorities.

About the Annual Population Survey

The APS combines results from the ONS Labour Force Survey (LFS) with the English, Welsh and Scottish LFS boosts. This provides a larger annual sample of households. Compared with the quarterly LFS, the annual data is statistically more robust. Estimates for local areas and smaller populations (including those aged 16 to 24 years) are more accurate as a result.

The ONS published LFS estimates for 16 to 24 year olds in Scotland as part of an ad-hoc data request this month due to the data not being published as part of the usual ONS regional labour market release. These statistics are official statistics in development. Official statistics in development may be new or existing statistics, and will be tested with users, in line with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

ONS have published an article which explains the recent reintroduction of the Labour Force Survey estimates and the impact of reweighting the key indicators for the UK.

Due to the ongoing challenges with response rates, ONS Labour Force Survey estimates will be badged as official statistics in development until further review. The ONS Annual Population Survey data will also be considered as official statistics in development. While the APS has not been as affected by the reduction in responses, there will be an impact and the APS is not using the updated weights that have been applied to the LFS.

Compared to the APS, the LFS shows similar long-term labour market trends for 16 to 24 year olds in Scotland.

The population totals used for the latest APS estimates differ from the population totals used in the reweighted LFS estimates and use projected growth rates from Real Time Information data for UK, EU and non-EU populations based on 2021 patterns. The total population used for the APS therefore does not take into account any changes in migration, birth rates, death rates, and so on, since June 2021, so level estimates may be under- or over-estimating the true values and should be used with caution. Estimates of rates will, however, be robust.

Labour Market Transformation

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have the ambition of transforming the Labour Force Survey (LFS) to enable a more adaptive and responsive survey to meet user needs and maintain the quality of labour market statistics. They are publishing articles on the transformation. On 14 November 2023 ONS published an article on the latest progress of the Labour Force Survey transformation.

ONS also welcome any feedback on this latest update and their plans. Please email them at labour.market.transformation@ons.gov.uk to tell them what you think.