Long-term prisoner release process: consultation

Prison population

Population trends

17. The prison population has risen by around 13% since the start of 2023, with a particularly sharp rise over a two month period between March and May 2024.

18. This has been driven by a number of factors. One of the main drivers has been a reduction (by over a third) in the backlog of court cases, with arrivals to prison exceeding departures.

19. Over the longer term, we have also seen increases in average sentence lengths imposed for certain offences; an increase in the number of serious sexual offence cases prosecuted in the courts; and an increase in the time individuals are held on remand.^[2] The rising prison population is also a result of success in other areas of our justice system including increased reporting, investigation and conviction of crimes.^[3]

20. As well as the overall population increasing, the Scottish Prison Service (SPS) reports that the prison population is considerably more complex to manage due to a variety of factors including managing serious and organised crime groups, substance abuse (including from new psychoactive substances),^[4] and increasingly complex health (including mental health) and social care needs.^[5]

Prison population projections

21. There is continued uncertainty in the prison population projections^[6] over the next 6 months due to several factors, including variability in court case registrations and the progression of the cases through the system, as well as independent judicial decision making. The latest modelling suggests that the average daily prison population could be between 7,650 and 9,150 in October 2024. Modelling indicates it is likely that the overall prison population will increase between May and the end of October 2024.

22. The immediate cause of the increase seen in recent months is not entirely clear and it is not possible to say whether this rate of growth will continue or not. The projected total population range includes the levels that might be reached if population inflows continue at the rate observed at the beginning of this year.

23. It should be noted that the latest prison population projections do not include the effects of emergency release and other measures recently announced by the Scottish Government.

Addressing the rising prison population

24. As a result of the rising prison population, substantial pressure is being placed on the prison estate. This has resulted in increased risks to the safety and wellbeing of prisoners and SPS staff, and a reduction in the ability of SPS to provide and facilitate the purposeful activities that support rehabilitation.

25. Achieving a sustained reduction in the prison population is necessary to mitigate these risks. We are committed to taking action to ensure that SPS is able to maintain safety and good order within prisons and to uphold the human rights of those in its care.

26. A range of actions have already been taken in recent years to address and mitigate the rising prison population. These include extending the presumption against short sentences; introducing electronically monitored bail and enabling that time to be taken into account at sentencing; optimising the use of home detention curfew; and optimising the use of the prison estate. Funding for community justice has also been increased to £148 million in total for 2024-25, in order to support alternatives to custody.

27. Additional measures are now being explored to alleviate population pressures, including the potential to expand the prison estate through the use of temporary accommodation. However, with the prison population reaching critical levels, a range of additional actions are necessary for the population pressures to be alleviated.

28. In the immediate term, the Scottish Parliament approved the emergency release of certain short-term prisoners under section 3C of the Prisoners and Criminal Proceedings (Scotland) Act 1993 (as introduced by section 11 of the Bail and Release from Custody (Scotland) Act 2023) on 12 June.^[7] The use of emergency release will alleviate immediate pressures. However, with no change to the underlying drivers of the rising prison population, it is anticipated that the impacts of this will be temporary. Further changes are therefore needed to ensure the prison population can be managed sustainably over the longer term.

29. There are limitations in terms of the policy options available to the Scottish Government that would have a substantial and sustained impact on the prison population. The impact of emergency release will likely be temporary, which means there is a degree of urgency.

30. It is the Scottish Government’s view that changing the point of release for long-term prisoners is a feasible and proportionate way to reduce pressure on the prison estate. As noted above, this change is also intended to provide those leaving prison with a more managed return to their communities, with supervision and access to the support and rehabilitation they need for a longer period of time.