Low Carbon Scotland - meeting the emissions reduction targets 2010-2022: report

Executive Summary

This Report sets out how Scotland can deliver annual targets for reductions in emissions to 2022, including a 42% reduction in emissions by 2020 compared to 1990.

The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 requires Ministers to lay a report in Parliament setting out their proposals and policies for meeting annual emissions reduction targets. This Report covers the period from 2010-22, and sets out Ministers' proposals and policies to meet annual targets, including the 2020 target of 42%, over that period. This Report was laid in draft in Parliament on 17 November 2010, and was subject to a 60-day period for Parliamentary consideration. This final Report incorporates Ministers' changes to the draft Report following Parliamentary consideration, and was laid in Parliament in March 2011. The Report is set in the context of Scotland's role in leading the way to a low carbon society. The Report explains what is meant by a low carbon society, and a low carbon economy, and why Scotland is ideally placed to be at the forefront of this transition. It sets out the wider economic and social benefits that would arise from action to reduce emissions, and what that might mean for the way that we all live and work.

The Report also highlights that, under the current devolution framework, Scotland is constrained in the policy, fiscal and economic levers available to support Scotland's specific strengths in the transition to a low carbon economy. The report highlights specific examples where further powers are required, and where decisions taken by the UK have placed at risk Scotland's competitive advantage, such as the current rules preventing Scottish Ministers immediate and unrestricted access to Fossil Fuel Levy monies which currently stand at almost £200 million.

The Report is structured around a number of chapters covering energy supply, homes and communities, business and the public sector, transport, rural land use and waste. In each chapter, a number of policies are identified. A number of proposals are also identified for further consideration. When considered together, both policies and proposals would meet annual emissions reduction targets. Proposals have been identified from a number of different sources, and do not necessarily reflect current Government policy.

Each chapter explains the trends in each sector, the split between reserved and devolved powers and identifies a range of supporting and enabling measures. These supporting and enabling measures do not generally lead directly to a reduction in emissions themselves, but play an important role in working through the full range of actions and decisions required to implement proposals and policies to deliver emissions reductions. This Report does not go into detail on each sector, but provides a number of links and references to identify where more information can be found on each topic. The costs and benefits arising in each sector are also outlined in the chapters.

The Report also outlines the essential elements for monitoring progress towards meeting targets, and monitoring progress on the implementation of proposals and policies. The importance of a thorough and robust approach to delivery and monitoring of the policies and proposals identified in this Report was a key feature of Parliamentary scrutiny of the Report.

Full details of up-front costs and cost-effectiveness of proposals, as far as it has been possible to quantify, are contained in tables in the appendix to this Report. The abatement potential of each policy and proposal identified is also contained in the appendix.

The analysis shows that current policies will deliver a 38% cut in emissions by 2020 compared to 1990. This progress is encouraging but it will not be enough to meet the interim target in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act to reduce emissions by 42% by 2020, the major staging post towards the long term target of an 80% reduction by 2050.

The challenge for the next ten years is to achieve a substantial reduction in Scotland's greenhouse gas emissions through a faster decarbonisation of activities. In doing so, there will be opportunities for investment, innovation and cost savings to contribute to boosting Scotland's prosperity. Sustainability and prosperity need to go hand in hand, and that challenge is at the heart of this document.

The analysis in this Report shows that it is possible to meet the annual targets each year from 2010 to 2022. Meeting the targets will require a range of actions throughout Scotland's economy and society - central government, local government and the public sector, businesses, individuals and communities alike. Some of these actions will be strategic, such as new energy, agriculture or planning policy; others will be targeted, such as increasing the number of homes with insulation. Innovation will be essential in all that we do. We will gather knowledge as we go.

Changes in how energy is used, and decisions made about travel, will be at the heart of Scotland's move to a low carbon society. In order to assist the wider understanding of how Scotland can rise to this challenge, the Scottish Government published a Public Engagement Strategy on 30 December 2010.

The transition to a low carbon society is already underway, and with pace. It will only accelerate in the future. Scotland's Climate Change Delivery Plan was published in June 2009, and described the four transformational outcomes needed in order to meet the 2050 target:

• A largely decarbonised electricity generation sector by 2030;
• A largely decarbonised heat sector by 2050, with significant progress by 2030;
• Almost complete decarbonisation of road transport by 2050 with significant progress by 2030;

• A comprehensive approach to ensure that carbon (including the cost of carbon) is fully factored into strategic and local decisions about rural land use.

These transformational outcomes have guided the development of this Report, as have a series of related policy initiatives. Taken together they will enable Scotland to achieve its world leading targets.