Low Carbon Scotland - meeting our emissions reduction targets 2013-2027: second report
This is our second report on proposals and policies (RPP2) for meeting our climate change targets.
Annex A: Greenhouse Gas Business as Usual Projections and Emissions Abatement (ktCO 2e) and Cost
(£m) Estimates
Business as Usual Projections | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Traded Sector Net Emissions (20% EU Target) Includes Energy Supply | 19,099 | 18,749 | 18,399 | 18,048 | 17,698 | 17,348 | 16,986 | 16,618 | 12,960 | 12,635 | 12,310 | 11,987 | 11,197 | 10,897 | 10,181 |
Traded Sector Net Emissions (30% EU Target) Includes Energy Supply | 18,267 | 17,639 | 17,012 | 16,385 | 15,757 | 15,130 | 14,502 | 13,875 | |||||||
Non-Traded Sector Business As Usual | 29,846 | 29,902 | 30,138 | 30,364 | 30,563 | 30,730 | 31,032 | 31,436 | 31,810 | 32,225 | 32,551 | 32,936 | 33,398 | 33,780 | 34,091 |
Total Business As Usual Projection (20% EU Target) |
48,945 | 48,651 | 48,537 | 48,412 | 48,261 | 48,079 | 48,019 | 48,054 | 44,770 | 44,860 | 44,861 | 44,923 | 44,595 | 44,677 | 44,272 |
Total Business As Usual Projection 30% EU Target) |
48,113 | 47,541 | 47,150 | 46,748 | 46,320 | 45,860 | 45,535 | 45,311 | 44,770 | 44,860 | 44,861 | 44,923 | 44,595 | 44,677 | 44,272 |
Up to 2020, the net Scottish emissions account will measure Scotland's share of EU ETS allowances. The overall number of allowances is assumed to be lower if the EU strengthens its 2020 target from 20% to 30%. Phase III of the EU ETS runs from 2013-2020. It is our proposal to review our emissions accounting methodology after Phase III and measure actual emissions from the traded sector. Because of the change in methodology partway through the time series, this table differs from the other tables in this annex in that it presents an estimated scenario of actual emissions from the traded sector, which includes energy supply, rather than a projected Business as Usual baseline from which emissions abatement is deducted.
Homes & Communities | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business as Usual Emissions | 6,410 | 6,309 | 6,214 | 6,129 | 6,075 | 6,089 | 6,116 | 6,146 | 6,201 | 6,254 | 6,300 | 6,330 | 6,354 | 6,366 | 6,344 |
Policies (emissions abatement ktCO 2e) | |||||||||||||||
Smart Metering | 7 | 17 | 33 | 49 | 66 | 80 | 86 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 94 | 94 | 95 |
Domestic Buildings Energy Standards (2010) - New Build Properties | 16 | 24 | 32 | 41 | 49 | 58 | 67 | 76 | 84 | 93 | 103 | 113 | 122 | 132 | 142 |
Renewable Heat Incentive (Domestic) | 11 | 19 | 27 | 35 | 46 | 57 | 68 | 78 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
Energy Company Obligation ( ECO) and Green Deal ( GD) | 13 | 24 | 33 | 42 | 52 | 62 | 89 | 104 | 114 | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 |
National Retrofit Programme: Scottish Government Fuel Poverty & Energy Efficiency Programmes | 59 | 99 | 137 | 173 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Warm Homes Fund | 7 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
District Heating Loan Fund | 24 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
Total Abatement from policies | 138 | 231 | 315 | 397 | 481 | 524 | 576 | 612 | 631 | 659 | 670 | 682 | 692 | 703 | 713 |
Proposals (emissions abatement ktCO 2e) | |||||||||||||||
Domestic Buildings Energy Standards (2014) - New Build Properties | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 26 | 31 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 55 |
Regulation of Private and Social Housing | 0 | 1 | 13 | 20 | 27 | 38 | 51 | 63 | 74 | 85 | 102 | 118 | 130 | 141 | 152 |
National Retrofit Programme: Insulation and Heat Programme | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 27 | 33 | 43 | 49 | 71 | 91 | 117 | 143 | 167 |
Low Carbon Heat (Domestic) | 0 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 39 | 57 | 76 | 99 | 135 | 186 | 247 | 336 | 424 | 513 | 609 |
Additional Technical Potential in Fabric and Energy Efficiency | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 142 | 210 | 278 | 343 | 407 | 470 | 531 | 591 | 650 |
Total abatement from Proposals | 0 | 1 | 21 | 49 | 74 | 203 | 314 | 428 | 555 | 694 | 861 | 1,055 | 1,248 | 1,438 | 1,634 |
Total abatement from Policies and Proposals | 138 | 232 | 336 | 446 | 555 | 727 | 889 | 1,040 | 1,186 | 1,353 | 1,531 | 1,737 | 1,940 | 2,141 | 2,347 |
Net Emissions after Policies and Proposals | 6,272 | 6,077 | 5,878 | 5,684 | 5,521 | 5,362 | 5,227 | 5,106 | 5,014 | 4,901 | 4,769 | 4,593 | 4,414 | 4,225 | 3,997 |
% Change against 1990 | -23% | -26% | -28% | -31% | -33% | -34% | -36% | -38% | -39% | -40% | -42% | -44% | -46% | -48% | -51% |
Total cost of Policies | 405 | 415 | 392 | 413 | 418 | 306 | 305 | 303 | 300 | 297 | 155 | 153 | 150 | 148 | 146 |
Total cost of Proposals | 0 | 102 | 133 | 167 | 162 | 291 | 290 | 294 | 304 | 301 | 438 | 435 | 431 | 427 | 424 |
Total cost of Policies and Proposals | 405 | 517 | 524 | 580 | 580 | 597 | 595 | 598 | 604 | 598 | 593 | 588 | 581 | 576 | 571 |
Business, Industry & Public Sector | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business as Usual Emissions | 5,072 | 5,073 | 5,074 | 5,071 | 5,066 | 5,036 | 5,005 | 4,975 | 4,960 | 4,944 | 4,929 | 4,913 | 4,898 | 4,896 | 4,894 |
Policies (emissions abatement ktCO 2e) | |||||||||||||||
Smart Metering | 2 | 8 | 19 | 30 | 42 | 49 | 52 | 53 | 52 | 51 | 50 | 49 | 48 | 47 | 46 |
CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme | 30 | 41 | 54 | 68 | 83 | 98 | 114 | 130 | 149 | 169 | 184 | 200 | 216 | 187 | 154 |
Non Domestic Buildings Energy Standards (2010) - New Build Properties | 13 | 19 | 25 | 32 | 38 | 44 | 51 | 57 | 63 | 70 | 76 | 82 | 89 | 95 | 101 |
Green Deal & Supporting Policy | 2 | 4 | 18 | 38 | 58 | 74 | 85 | 92 | 97 | 98 | 73 | 55 | 41 | 31 | 24 |
EU Products Policy | -6 | -10 | -7 | -8 | -9 | -10 | -11 | -11 | -11 | -10 | -10 | -9 | -9 | -8 | -8 |
Renewable Heat Incentive (Non Domestic) | 106 | 171 | 256 | 375 | 532 | 641 | 768 | 896 | 869 | 849 | 877 | 893 | 902 | 909 | 914 |
Total Abatement from policies | 147 | 233 | 365 | 535 | 743 | 896 | 1,060 | 1,217 | 1,220 | 1,227 | 1,250 | 1,270 | 1,288 | 1,260 | 1,231 |
Proposals (emissions abatement ktCO 2e) | |||||||||||||||
Non Domestic Buildings Energy Standards (2014) - New Build Properties | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
Assessment of Energy Performance and Emissions Regulations (Non Domestic Buildings) | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 24 | 30 | 36 | 42 | 56 | 70 | 85 | 99 | 113 | 128 | 142 |
Public Sector | 87 | 109 | 130 | 152 | 174 | 195 | 217 | 239 | 245 | 252 | 259 | 265 | 272 | 278 | 285 |
Low Carbon Heat (Non Domestic) | 16 | 74 | 112 | 116 | 81 | 95 | 90 | 101 | 269 | 459 | 602 | 777 | 960 | 1,145 | 1,334 |
Total abatement from proposals | 103 | 189 | 256 | 290 | 289 | 335 | 363 | 406 | 600 | 816 | 985 | 1,186 | 1,395 | 1,606 | 1,821 |
Total abatement from policies and proposals | 250 | 422 | 621 | 826 | 1,032 | 1,232 | 1,423 | 1,623 | 1,820 | 2,043 | 2,235 | 2,456 | 2,682 | 2,866 | 3,051 |
Net Emissions after Policies and Proposals | 4,822 | 4,652 | 4,453 | 4,246 | 4,034 | 3,804 | 3,582 | 3,352 | 3,139 | 2,901 | 2,694 | 2,457 | 2,216 | 2,030 | 1,843 |
% Change from 1990 (including 20% EU ETS) | -36% | -37% | -39% | -40% | -42% | -43% | -45% | -46% | -57% | -58% | -60% | -61% | -64% | -65% | -68% |
% Change from 1990 (including 30% EU ETS) [288] |
-38% | -40% | -42% | -45% | -47% | -49% | -51% | -54% | -57% | -58% | -60% | -61% | -64% | -65% | -68% |
Total cost of policies (£m) | 141 | 164 | 171 | 184 | 198 | 204 | 198 | 216 | 198 | 181 | 168 | 150 | 139 | 124 | 131 |
Total cost of proposals (£m) | 24 | 72 | 91 | 95 | 81 | 80 | 75 | 76 | 157 | 173 | 188 | 198 | 207 | 206 | 232 |
Total cost of policies and proposals (£m) | 165 | 236 | 262 | 278 | 280 | 284 | 274 | 291 | 355 | 355 | 356 | 348 | 346 | 331 | 363 |
Transport | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business as Usual Emissions | 13,236 | 13,256 | 13,289 | 13,420 | 13,527 | 13,622 | 13,720 | 13,822 | 13,906 | 13,992 | 14,083 | 14,176 | 14,253 | 14,374 | 14,494 |
Policies (emissions abatement ktCO 2 e) | |||||||||||||||
Decarbonising Vehicles ( EU Directives) | 157 | 267 | 381 | 500 | 642 | 811 | 1,009 | 1,243 | 1,328 | 1,408 | 1,483 | 1,553 | 1,619 | 1,676 | 1,727 |
Total Abatement from policies | 157 | 267 | 381 | 500 | 642 | 811 | 1,009 | 1,243 | 1,328 | 1,408 | 1,483 | 1,553 | 1,619 | 1,676 | 1,727 |
Proposals (emissions abatement ktCO 2 e) | |||||||||||||||
Decarbonising Vehicles | 1 | 7 | 47 | 76 | 110 | 151 | 209 | 282 | 441 | 453 | 564 | 676 | 689 | 793 | 798 |
Sustainable Communities | 0 | 12 | 56 | 70 | 82 | 103 | 122 | 139 | 158 | 179 | 198 | 219 | 241 | 259 | 277 |
Business Efficiencies | 26 | 29 | 58 | 67 | 76 | 91 | 106 | 121 | 173 | 227 | 270 | 306 | 357 | 409 | 462 |
Network Efficiencies | 2 | 4 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 35 | 35 | 34 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 32 |
Lower Emission Potential in Transport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 500 | 750 |
Total abatement from proposals | 29 | 53 | 192 | 245 | 301 | 379 | 473 | 579 | 808 | 894 | 1,065 | 1,235 | 1,569 | 1,994 | 2,320 |
Total abatement from policies and proposals | 186 | 320 | 574 | 745 | 943 | 1,190 | 1,482 | 1,822 | 2,135 | 2,301 | 2,548 | 2,788 | 3,188 | 3,671 | 4,046 |
Net Emissions after Policies and Proposals | 13,050 | 12,937 | 12,715 | 12,675 | 12,584 | 12,433 | 12,239 | 12,000 | 11,770 | 11,691 | 11,534 | 11,388 | 11,065 | 10,703 | 10,448 |
% Change from 1990 | 1% | 0% | -2% | -2% | -3% | -4% | -5% | -7% | -9% | -10% | -11% | -12% | -15% | -17% | -19% |
Total cost of policies (£m) | 9 | 17 | 24 | 31 | 40 | 52 | 68 | 88 | 90 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 |
Total cost of proposals (£m) | 47 | 43 | 168 | 177 | 181 | 158 | 141 | 146 | 151 | 162 | 127 | 130 | 137 | 132 | 134 |
Total cost of policies and proposals (£m) | 55 | 59 | 192 | 208 | 222 | 210 | 209 | 233 | 241 | 252 | 218 | 222 | 230 | 226 | 229 |
Waste and Resource Efficiency | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business as Usual Emissions | 2,121 | 2,105 | 2,088 | 2,073 | 2,059 | 2,044 | 2,029 | 2,014 | 2,003 | 1,992 | 1,981 | 1,969 | 1,958 | 1,958 | 1,958 |
Policies (emissions abatement ktCO 2e) | |||||||||||||||
Zero Waste Policies (pre May-2010) | 484 | 533 | 579 | 622 | 659 | 693 | 722 | 748 | 774 | 795 | 813 | 827 | 837 | 856 | 871 |
Zero Waste Plan | 13 | 26 | 41 | 58 | 77 | 97 | 119 | 141 | 163 | 185 | 206 | 228 | 249 | 270 | 290 |
Total Abatement from policies | 497 | 559 | 620 | 680 | 737 | 790 | 841 | 889 | 937 | 980 | 1,019 | 1,055 | 1,086 | 1,126 | 1,161 |
Proposals (emissions abatement ktCO 2e) | |||||||||||||||
Enhanced Capture of Landfill Gas | 22 | 44 | 67 | 90 | 112 | 133 | 154 | 163 | 161 | 158 | 155 | 151 | 148 | 144 | 140 |
Total abatement from proposals | 22 | 44 | 67 | 90 | 112 | 133 | 154 | 163 | 161 | 158 | 155 | 151 | 148 | 144 | 140 |
Total abatement from policies and proposals | 519 | 603 | 687 | 769 | 848 | 924 | 995 | 1,052 | 1,098 | 1,138 | 1,174 | 1,206 | 1,234 | 1,270 | 1,302 |
Net Emissions after Policies and Proposals | 1,602 | 1,502 | 1,401 | 1,304 | 1,210 | 1,120 | 1,034 | 963 | 906 | 854 | 806 | 763 | 724 | 689 | 656 |
% Change from 1990 | -76% | -78% | -79% | -81% | -82% | -83% | -85% | -86% | -87% | -87% | -88% | -89% | -89% | -90% | -90% |
Total cost of policies (£m) | 172 | 161 | 163 | 163 | 163 | 164 | 162 | 163 | 164 | 165 | 164 | 165 | 165 | 165 | 165 |
Total cost of proposals (£m) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total cost of policies and proposals (£m) | 173 | 162 | 164 | 164 | 164 | 165 | 163 | 164 | 164 | 165 | 164 | 165 | 165 | 165 | 165 |
Rural Land Use | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business as Usual Emissions | 3,007 | 3,158 | 3,473 | 3,670 | 3,836 | 3,939 | 4,161 | 4,478 | 4,741 | 5,043 | 5,258 | 5,548 | 5,936 | 6,187 | 6,401 |
Policies (emissions abatement ktCO 2e) | |||||||||||||||
Farming for a better climate | 50 | 62 | 75 | 87 | 100 | 101 | 103 | 103 | 104 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 106 | 107 | 107 |
Increase afforestation rate to 10 kh per year | 15 | 16 | 45 | 92 | 144 | 195 | 248 | 310 | 373 | 435 | 477 | 529 | 582 | 634 | 687 |
Total Abatement from policies | 65 | 78 | 120 | 179 | 244 | 296 | 351 | 413 | 477 | 539 | 582 | 635 | 688 | 741 | 794 |
Proposals (emissions abatement ktCO 2e) | |||||||||||||||
90% Uptake of Fertiliser Efficiency Measures | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 |
Developments in agricultural technology from 2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 |
Accelerated restoration of degraded peatland | 0 | 9 | 25 | 47 | 73 | 104 | 139 | 177 | 218 | 263 | 309 | 358 | 410 | 462 | 515 |
Wood First - Timber Construction Programme | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 89 | 89 | 89 | 125 | 125 |
Additional technical potential from low carbon land use | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 500 | 750 |
Total abatement from proposals | 0 | 9 | 25 | 47 | 73 | 364 | 399 | 747 | 788 | 922 | 968 | 1,017 | 1,319 | 1,657 | 1,960 |
Total abatement from policies and proposals | 65 | 87 | 145 | 226 | 317 | 660 | 749 | 1,160 | 1,265 | 1,461 | 1,550 | 1,652 | 2,007 | 2,397 | 2,754 |
Net Emissions after Policies and Proposals | 2,942 | 3,071 | 3,328 | 3,444 | 3,519 | 3,279 | 3,412 | 3,318 | 3,476 | 3,582 | 3,708 | 3,896 | 3,929 | 3,790 | 3,648 |
% Change from 1990 | -63% | -61% | -58% | -56% | -55% | -58% | -57% | -58% | -56% | -54% | -53% | -50% | -50% | -52% | -54% |
Total cost of RLU policies (£m) | 37 | 42 | 47 | 49 | 51 | 53 | 54 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
Total cost of RLU proposals (£m) | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 321 | 321 | 361 | 321 | 321 | 328 | 318 | 318 |
Total cost of RLU policies and proposals (£m) | 55 | 59 | 63 | 64 | 67 | 69 | 70 | 377 | 378 | 419 | 379 | 380 | 389 | 379 | 379 |
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