Measuring the Success of Scotland's National Food and and Drink Policy. Food and Drink Indicators. Update on Progress, November 2012.

Annex 1: Charts for Headline Indicators

Headline Indicator 1 - Food and Drink Gross Value Added (GVA)

Food and Drink Key Sector GVA

Source: Office for National Statistics, Annual Business Survey (Complied by the Scottish Government) and Economic Report on Scottish Agriculture 2012

In 2008^[17]:

• GVA for the food and drink key sector was £4.7 billion.
• Agriculture GVA was £720 million, fishing and aquaculture GVA was £237 million and GVA in food manufacturing was £1,264 million whilst drink manufacturing GVA was £2,444 million.

In 2010:

• GVA for the food and drink key sector totalled £4.6 billion.
• Agriculture GVA was £686 million, fishing and aquaculture GVA was £297 million and GVA in food manufacturing was £1,187m whilst drink manufacturing GVA was £2,403 million.

Headline Indicator 2 - Food and Drink Overseas Exports

Food and Drink Overseas Exports 2011*
Source: HMRC
Note: Figures at top of bars are total exports for food and drink

Changes:

• Overseas exports of food and drink increased by 52% from £3.5bn in 2007 to £5.4bn in 2011.
• Overseas exports of food increased by £450m between 2007 and 2011, an increase of 63%.
• Drink overseas exports exhibited an increase of 50% for the period 2007 to 2011. This increase totalled £1.4bn from £2.8bn in 2007 to £4.2bn in 2011.

* Food and drink exports are calculated in the following manner:

• Food - exports from Scotland to overseas. UK Regional Trade Statistics (RTS) expressed in value terms (£). HMRC.
• Drink - exports of Scotch whisky overseas. Overseas Trade Statistics (OTS) expressed in value terms (£). HMRC.
• Food and drink exports include: live animals, animal feed, processed and fresh food and Scotch whisky. SITC codes 0 Food and live animals.
• For Scotch whisky the following SITC codes are used to extract figures from before 2010: 22083032, 22083038, 22083052, 22083058, 22083072, 22083078. For 2010 onwards the following codes are used: 22083030, 22083041, 22083049, 22083061, 22083069, 22083071 and 22083079.
• This indicator uses a combination of RTS figures for food and OTS exports of Scotch Whisky to calculate Scotland's food and drink overseas exports.

Headline Indicator 3 - Retail Sales of Scottish Food and Drink Brands in Great Britain

Retail Sales of Scottish Food and Drink Brands in Great Britain
Source: Kantar Worldpanel

Changes:

• The value of retail sales of Scottish brands in Great Britain increased by 28% or £396 million between 2007 and 2012, from £1.4 billion for 2007 to £1.8 billion for 2012.
• The value of grocery sales of Scottish brands in Great Britain over the period 2011 to 2012 decreased by -0.6% or £11 million.

Data Note: Caution should be used when drawing conclusions from the data presented above (particularly between pre and post 2010). Data is received from Kantar Worldpanel for the most recent three years. In the 2012 data set, data for 2010 and 2011 has been revised and the sample size increased by 20%. A dashed line has been included in the chart above to show the increase in the sample size.

Headline Indicator 4 - Scottish Dietary Targets (SDTs)

Food/Nutrient changes in relation to the Scottish Dietary Targets 2001-2010
Source: Estimation of food and nutrient intakes from Food Survey data in Scotland 2001-2010, FSA Scotland
Note: The changes between 2001 and 2010 have been calculated by FSA Scotland and the directions of changes has been determined to be statistically significant.

Target Food/Nutrient	Scottish Dietary Target	2001	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Statistically significant change between 2001 and 2010
Fruit and Vegetables	More than 400g per day	259g	276g	291g	285g	279g	286g
Bread (all types)	154g per day	111g	102g	97.9g	92.9g	94.7g	94.4g
Brown/ Wholemeal bread	More than 77g per day	18.2g	23.6g	23.5g	23.6g	21.4g	23.0g
Breakfast cereals (all types)	34g per day	19.6g	19.3g	22.3g	21.6g	23.2g	22.0g
Oil rich fish	88g per week	29.2g	38.2g	32.7g	32.9g	30.5g	28.3g
White fish	No decrease (per week)	96.4g	96.5g	98.2g	93.0g	92.8g	92.6g
Fat	<35% food energy	38.8%	38.7%	38.6%	39.0%	39.0%	38.7%
Saturated fat	<11% of food energy	15.5%	15.7%	15.3%	15.3%	15.1%	15.0%
NMES	Adults -no↑, Children <10%	15.5%	15.0%	14.9%	15.0%	14.8%	15.4%
Total complex carbohydrate	155g per day	146g	141g	147g	144g	145g	151g
Salt*	No more than 6g per day for adults		9.0g			8.8g

*Source: FSAS surveys of 24 hour urinary sodium excretion in a representative sample of the Scottish population as a measure of salt intake http://www.foodbase.org.uk/results.php?f_report_id=654
http://www.foodbase.org.uk/results.php?f_report_id=681

Between 2001 and 2010 for three of the food categories there has been a positive change in direction towards meeting the SDT:

• Fruit and Vegetable consumption rose from 259g per person per day to 286g.
• Brown/wholemeal bread consumption increased from 18.2g to 23.0g per person per day.
• The quantity of breakfast cereals consumed rose from 19.6g to 22.0g per person per day.

Additionally there were small but statistically significant decreases in saturated fat and non-milk extrinsic sugars (NMES) between 2001 and 2010.

Headline Indicator 5 - Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agricultural and Related Land Use

Net Scottish GHG Emissions from Agricultural and Related Land Use Activities, 2007-2010
Source: Green House Gas Inventory, Scottish Government, Defra
Note: Figures at the top of the bar are the total for all categories

Between 2007 and 2010:

• Net Scottish GHG emissions, by source^[18], from agriculture and related land use activities were reduced by 7.6% between 2007 and 2010 from 11.3 Mt CO₂ equivalent to 10.5 Mt CO₂ equivalent. The largest reduction in percentage and absolute terms was achieved in Cropland conversion which produced 21.7% fewer GHG emissions in 2010 compared to 2007, a reduction of 0.55 Mt CO₂ equivalent.
• Over the period 2009 to 2010 the overall reduction in GHG emissions was 2.6% with Cropland conversion achieving an overall reduction in emissions of 11.1% over the period.

Headline Indicator 6 - Food Safety

Food Hygiene Information Scheme
Source: Food Hygiene Information Scheme, FSA Scotland

	2010/11	2011/12
Number of businesses in scheme	18,958	27,417
% receiving pass rates	87%	87%

In 2010/11:

• Almost 19,000 businesses in Scotland entered the Food Hygiene Information Scheme in 2010/11, of these, 87% received pass rates.

In 2011/12:

• 27,417 businesses were included in the Food Hygiene Information Scheme amounting to 8,459 new entries to the scheme since 2010/11.
• The pass rate was 87%.
• The scheme is currently launched at 22 out of 32 Local Authorities, the remaining 10 will be launching the scheme mainly during this year and next. The businesses currently participating in the scheme represent approximately 55% of all businesses within the scope of the scheme.

Headline Indicator 7 - Food Imports

Overseas Food Imports in to Scotland, by value, 2007 and 2011
Source: HMRC Regional Trade Statistics

Origin of food imports into Scotland by food type and value in 2011

Food type	Value (£m)	% of all food imports	Top 5 countries
Feed	292	30%	Argentina 38%	Brazil 25%	Netherlands 11%	Denmark 8%	US 4%	Other 14%
Fruit & veg	164	17%	Spain 23%	Netherlands 22%	Other Lat Amer and Caribbean 8%	Turkey 6%	Belgium 4 %	Other 37%
Fish	137	14%	Other West Eur 27%	Netherlands 19%	China 8%	Denmark 8%	Irish Rep 7%	Other 32%
Meat	98	10%	Netherlands 30%	Irish Rep 18%	Brazil 8%	Spain 8%	Poland 7%	Other 30%
Sugar	74	8%	France 29%	Belgium 28%	Germany 18%	Mauritius 12%	Sweden 3%	Other 10%
Dairy	74	8%	France 57%	Irish Rep 26%	Germany 8%	Belgium 3%	Netherlands 2%	Other 4%
Cereals	66	7%	France 56%	Other East Eur 6%	Romania 6%	Germany 5%	Italy 4%	Other 22%
Misc. edible products	41	4%	France 26%	Belgium 26%	US 13%	China 7%	Netherlands 6%	Other 22%
Live animals	10	1%	Irish Rep 89%	France 6%	Denmark 3%	Netherlands 2%	US 1%	Other 0.1%
Tea/coffee	9	1%	Irish Rep 31%	Germany 29%	Belgium 15%	Spain 7%	Netherlands 6%	Other 13%

Between 2007 and 2011:

• Overall, food imports increased in value by 44% from £672 million in 2007 to £966 million in 2011.
• Feed stuff for animals was the largest import by value in 2011 at £292m and accounting for 30% of food imports. This compares to 2007 where animal feed accounted for 25% of food imports. Between 2007 and 2011 imports of animal feed increased in value by £123 million or 73%.
• The categories that exhibited a decline in the value of imports were Live Animals, Dairy, Cereals and Tea, Coffee, & Spices.

Context:

Scotland will import food from overseas indirectly via the rest of UK, however, data for the level of imports are not available. Imports from overseas to the UK increased by 37%, in value terms, between 2007 and 2011 by £8.1 billion to £30.1 billion for 2011. The volume of food imports into the UK as a whole decreased by 1% over the period. A large part of the difference between the change in the value and volume of imports can be explained by the effect of inflation and also by the reduction in the value of the pound over the period making it more expensive to import the same volume.

Food imports by volume:

• Total overseas food imports by volume to Scotland increased by 5% between 2007 and 2011, from 1,835 kilo tonnes to 1,935 kilo tonnes.
• Animal feed accounted for 61% of food imports by volume. Excluding animal feed the volume of food imports from overseas to Scotland decreased by 2% between 2007 and 2011.

The chart below shows the volume of overseas food imports in to Scotland for 2007 and 2011.

Headline Indicator 8 - Land for Food Production in Scotland

Percentage of total agricultural land used for crops, grazing and woodland in Scotland, 2007 - 2012^[19]
Source: June Agricultural Census, Scottish Government
Note: Figures at the top show the total area of agricultural land used for crops, grazing and woodland.

Changes:

• The total area on agricultural holdings has remained relatively unchanged. In 2012 total area on agricultural holdings was 5.6 million hectares.
• The majority of this area was for grazing, either rough grazing (55%) or grass (24%).
• In 2007, 10.7% of agricultural land was used to produce crops and in 2012 10.5% of land was used to produce crops.
• 83% of agricultural land was used indirectly for food production (i.e. grazing) in 2007, this declined to 79% in 2012.

Please note that this data examines current land use, however, this indicator attempts to monitor the potential to produce food in the future and not the current levels of production. The area of land used to produce crops at present is taken as a proxy for the ability to produce food in the future.

Headline Indicator 9 - Access to Supermarkets and Convenience Stores

Percentage of population within 15 minutes driving time to a food store in Scotland, 2010
Source: Point X data (Ordnance Survey) using Drive Time Analysis Software, Scottish Government

• In 2010 the share of the population within 15 minutes driving time to a food store in Scotland was 100% for urban (indicated as rest of Scotland in the graph) and accessible rural areas in Scotland, while it was 90% for those in remote rural areas in Scotland.

Please note that this data has not been updated since the first publication. This is due to the fact that this indicator is slow to change and requires a significant amount of resources to monitor. An update will be made available in time for the next update to the Indicators.