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Publication - Factsheet

Scottish Government capital borrowing and bonds: memorandum

Published
19 December 2023
From
Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Gaelic, +3 more … Chief Financial Officer, Director-General Economy, Director-General Scottish Exchequer
Directorate
Exchequer Strategy Directorate, +2 more … Financial Management Directorate, International Trade and Investment Directorate
Topic
Economy, Money and tax, Scottish Budget
ISBN
9781835218143

A memorandum on the Scottish Government's borrowing policy and future approach to borrowing and bonds.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

Technical annex

This table discloses all Scottish Government capital borrowing drawn down from the National Loans Fund up to 2022-23 and forecast future borrowing reflected in the 2024-25 Scottish Budget plans.

£million 2017- 18 2018- 19 2019- 20 2020- 21 2021- 22 2022- 23 2023- 24 2024- 25 2025- 26 2026- 27 2027- 28 2028- 29 2029- 30 2030- 31
Debt Stock at start of Year 607 1,036 1,258 1,617 1,744 1,814 2,026 2,377 2,715 2,823 2,910 2,982 3,038 3,089
New Borrowing in year (incurred) 450 250 405 200 150 300
New Borrowing in year (forecast) 450 458 250 250 250 250 250 250
Principal Repayments - 7 26 52 60 67 79 88 89 91 92 94 82 70
Interest Repayments - 8 11 13 14 16 24 24 23 22 20 19 17 16
Resource Cost of Borrowing Incurred - 15 37 64 74 83 103 112 112 112 112 112 99 86
Principal Repayments - - - - - - - 11 33 51 66 80 96 112
Interest Repayments - - - - - - - 18 38 48 58 66 75 83
Resource Cost of Forecast Borrowing - - - - - - - 29 71 100 123 147 171 195
Projected Total Resource Cost 0 15 37 64 74 83 103 141 183 212 235 259 270 281
Notional Borrowing Repayments 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
Debt Stock at end of Year 1,036 1,258 1,617 1,744 1,814 2,026 2,377 2,715 2,823 2,910 2,982 3,038 3,089 3,137
Debt Cap 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,050 3,102 3,152 3,209 3,269 3,335 3,402
Percentage of Debt Cap 35% 42% 54% 58% 60% 68% 79% 89% 91% 92% 93% 93% 93% 92%
Headroom 1,964 1,742 1,383 1,256 1,186 974 623 335 279 242 227 232 245 264
  • Prior year figures here differ from the Scottish Budget document. This table reflects outturn borrowing whereas all prior year comparatives in the budget document state the original funding assumptions for each year as approved by parliament.
  • This forecast assumes continued use of the existing National Loans Fund structures as the source of borrowing, this will continue to be the case until any changes to borrowing sources or structures are certain to occur.
  • For these reasons, regular repayment of principal repayments will continue to be included in the resource cost of borrowing and reflected in budget and spending review forecasts.
  • Interest rate assumptions use forward Gilt curves (06/12/2023) adjusted for National Loans Fund annuity structures. A further premium of 50 basis points is added for prudence to reflect the volatility in both forward rates, and the feasible differential between date of request of funds and date of receipt when interest rates are applied.
  • The Scottish Government will not speculate on the future interest rate attached to any potential bond issuance.
  • Any future Scottish Government bond issuance will be under the terms of the Scotland Act 2016 and the revised fiscal framework agreement.

Contact

Email: bondspolicyengagement@gov.scot

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