Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) Continuation and future pricing: Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment

Footnotes

1 UK clinical guidelines for alcohol treatment - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

2 No place for cheap alcohol: the potential value of minimum pricing for protecting lives (who.int)

3 Reducing harm due to alcohol: success stories from 3 countries (who.int)

4 Evaluating the impact of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland: A synthesis of the evidence - Publications - Public Health Scotland

5 The reduction in alcohol-attributable deaths and hospital admissions found as part of the evaluation are estimates

6 Alcohol - minimum unit pricing - continuation and future pricing: consultation - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

7 The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) is a relative measure of deprivation across 6,976 small areas called data zones.

8 Monitoring and Evaluating Scotlands Alcohol Strategy (MESAS), 2022 (publichealthscotland.scot)

9 Evaluating the impact of alcohol minimum unit pricing on deaths and hospitalisations in Scotland: a controlled interrupted time series study - ScienceDirect

10 Evaluating the impact of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland: A synthesis of the evidence - Publications - Public Health Scotland

11 Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) - Office for National Statistics

12 The Scottish Health Survey 2021 - volume 1: main report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

13 This is often cited as the ‘alcohol harm paradox’, Bellis MA, Hughes K, Nicholls J, Sheron N, Gilmore I, Jones L. The alcohol harm paradox: Using a national survey to explore how alcohol may disproportionately impact health in deprived individuals. BMC Public Health [Internet]. 2016 Feb 18;16(1):111. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-016-2766-x

14 WHO 2022a

15 9789241563871_eng.pdf (who.int)

16 WHO 2022a

17 Anderson and Baumberg 2006

18 Scottish Crime and Justice Survey 2021/22: Main Findings (www.gov.scot) from page 58

19 Harm to others from drinking: patterns in nine societies (who.int)

20 Monitoring and Evaluating Scotlands Alcohol Strategy (MESAS), 2022 (publichealthscotland.scot)

21 Monitoring and Evaluating Scotlands Alcohol Strategy (MESAS), 2022 (publichealthscotland.scot)

22 Monitoring and Evaluating Scotlands Alcohol Strategy (MESAS), 2022 (publichealthscotland.scot)

23 Rehm, J. et al. (2009) Global burden of disease and injury and economic cost attributable to alcohol use and alcohol-use disorders, Lancet; 373: 2223–33.

24 Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 - PubMed (nih.gov)

25 Social desirability biases in self-reported alcohol consumption and harms. (apa.org)

26 Alcohol-specific deaths | National Records of Scotland (nrscotland.gov.uk)

27 The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol consumption and harm in Scotland and England: An evidence summary (publichealthscotland.scot)

28 Hospital admissions, deaths and overall burden of disease attributable to alcohol consumption in Scotland - ScotPHO

29 Alcohol-related hospital statistics 2021/22 Alcohol related hospital statistics - Scotland financial year 2021 to 2022 - Alcohol related hospital statistics - Publications - Public Health Scotland

30 Avoidable mortality | National Records of Scotland (nrscotland.gov.uk) published 10 November 2022

31 Alcohol-specific deaths in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

32 International comparisons - ScotPHO

33 International comparisons - ScotPHO

34 Harmful use of alcohol (who.int)

35 Global strategy to reduce the harmful use of alcohol (who.int), published 2010

36 Political declaration of the third high-level meeting of the General Assembly on the prevention and control of non-communicable diseases (who.int)

37 9780192844484.pdf (oup.com), published December 2022 (chapter 16)

38 WHO, Tackling NCD’s: Best Buys and other recommended interventions for tackling the burden of non-communicable diseases (2017)WHO-NMH-NVI-17.9-eng.pdf

WHO and World Economic Forum, From Burden to ‘Best Buys’ : Reducing the Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Diseases in Low –and Middle-income countries

39 The SAFER technical package (who.int)

40 OECD (2021), Preventing Harmful Alcohol Use, OECD Health Policy Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/6e4b4ffb-en

41No place for cheap alcohol: the potential value of minimum pricing for protecting lives (who.int) paras 5.4 to 5.6

42 Business: New Deal for Business Group - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

43 A Deposit Return Scheme for Scotland: Final Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment (BRIA) (www.gov.scot)

44 Public attitudes to Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) for alcohol in Scotland (publichealthscotland.scot)

45 https://www.gov.scot/isbn/9781835213285

46 Alcohol - Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) - continuation and future pricing consultation: Scottish Government response - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

47 Alcohol - minimum unit pricing - continuation and future pricing: interim business and regulatory impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

48 Evaluating the impact of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland: Final report (publichealthscotland.scot)

49 HMT_Magenta_Book.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

50 A new framework for developing and evaluating complex interventions: update of Medical Research Council guidance | The BMJ

51 Minimum Unit Pricing for Alcohol: Lessons from Scotland for Australia : Intouch Public Health

52 5 Wyper G, Mackay D, Fraser C et al. Evaluating the impact of alcohol minimum unit pricing on deaths and hospitalisations in Scotland: A controlled interrupted time series study. The Lancet. 2023 Mar 20. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00497-X

53 sarg-scottish-mup-report-2023.pdf (sarg-sheffield.ac.uk)

54 Alcohol-specific deaths 2022, Report (nrscotland.gov.uk)

55 Alcohol-specific deaths in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk

56 Changes in Alcohol-Specific Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 14 European Countries | SUCHT (hogrefe.com)

57 Alcohol-Related Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic - PMC (nih.gov)

58 The Daily — Provisional death counts and excess mortality, January 2020 to October 2022 (statcan.gc.ca)

59 Alcohol-specific deaths in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk

60 sarg-scottish-mup-report-2023.pdf (sarg-sheffield.ac.uk)

61 Gallet CA (2007). The demand for alcohol: a meta‐analysis of elasticities* - Gallet - 2007 - Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics - Wiley Online Library

62 Wagenaar AC, Salois MJ, Komro KA (2009). Effects of beverage alcohol price and tax levels on drinking: a meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies - PubMed (nih.gov)

63 Fogarty J (2010). THE DEMAND FOR BEER, WINE AND SPIRITS: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE - Fogarty - 2010 - Journal of Economic Surveys - Wiley Online Library

64 Elder RW, Lawrence B, Ferguson A, Naimi TS, Brewer RD, Chattopadhyay SK et al. (2010). The Effectiveness of Tax Policy Interventions for Reducing Excessive Alcohol Consumption and Related Harms - PMC (nih.gov)

65 PHS Monitoring Report 2022

66 Inflation and cost of living for household groups, UK: October 2022. ONS

67 Scottish Health Survey 2022 Main Report Volume 1 (www.gov.scot) , page 91

68 Scottish Health Survey 2022 Main Report Volume 1 (www.gov.scot) , page 91

69 https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/media/16542/population-health-impacts-of-the-rising-cost-of-living-in-scotland-a-rapid-health-impact-assessment.pdf

70 Moore SC et al. Alcohol affordability: implications for alcohol price policies. A cross-sectional analysis in middle and older adults from UK Biobank. J. Public Health 2022; 44, e192–e202.

71 Dom G et al. The Impact of the 2008 Economic Crisis on Substance Use Patterns in the Countries of the European Union. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public. Health 2016; 13.

72 MESAS monitoring report 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland

73 Evaluating the impact of MUP on alcohol products and prices 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland

74 PHS MESAS Monitoring Report 2022, excel spreadsheets and graphs on alcohol price and affordability

75 Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) on the price distribution of off-trade alcohol in Scotland (publichealthscotland.scot)

76 Figure 5 in Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) on the price distribution of off-trade alcohol in Scotland (publichealthscotland.scot)

77 PHS MESAS Monitoring Report 2022, excel spreadsheets and graphs on alcohol price and affordability, figure 3, https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/media/13690/mesas-monitoring-report-2022-alcohol-price-and-affordability.xlsx

78 To note that the above table suggests there are still products that are sold below the current 50p MUP. This is due to the way that sales data are recorded as opposed to products being sold illegally. Following the introduction of MUP, products and prices were analysed as part of the Public Health Scotland evaluation and they found that the main reasons for products looking as if they were being sold for less than 50ppu were rounding (data company recorded price as 49.9ppu) and splitting of a multipack. The PHS study found that when retailers split a multipack into its individual items and sell them (which could happen if a can was damaged), can result in lower prices in sales records that do not reflect actual in-store sales. Because the barcode on the individual item can be the same as the multipack, this can misrepresent the number of sales as equalling the number of split containers, rather than the one multipack. Thus a four-pack of 500ml, when split, can be misrepresented as four multipacks rather than four individual items (i.e. 16 individual tins being sold for the price of four, or 8 litres for the price of 2 litres).

79 2021 is the latest year for which comparable data is available from PHS/Nielsen. For 2022, Circana data has been used.

80 45% of sales below 50ppu in 2017 from latest MESAS Report. Revised from 47% published in the 2018 Monitoring and Evaluating Scotlands Alcohol Strategy (MESAS), 2018 (healthscotland.scot) , page 8

81 https://sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/sarg-scottish-mup-report-2023.pdf

82 No place for cheap alcohol: the potential value of minimum pricing for protecting lives (who.int)

83 https://sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/sarg-scottish-mup-report-2023.pdf

84 Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland's Alcohol Strategy (MESAS) - Alcohol - Health topics - Public Health Scotland

85 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

86 Evaluating the impact of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland: Final report (publichealthscotland.scot) , section 6, page 95

87 MESAS monitoring report 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland, alcohol price and affordability spreadsheet

88 https://sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/sarg-scottish-mup-report-2023.pdf

89 MESAS monitoring report 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland, alcohol and price affordability spreadsheet

90 Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) on the price distribution of off-trade alcohol in Scotland (publichealthscotland.scot)

91 Adds to 61% rather than 62% due to rounding

92 The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol consumption and harm in Scotland and England: An evidence summary (publichealthscotland.scot) p. 38

93 No place for cheap alcohol: the potential value of minimum pricing for protecting lives (who.int)

94 https://sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/sarg-scottish-mup-report-2023.pdf

95 Section 7, 00532197.pdf (www.gov.scot)

96 Angus C, Holmes J, Pryce R, Meier P, Brennan A. (2016) 'Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland: An adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 3', ScHARR: University of Sheffield

97 Angus C, Holmes J, Pryce R, Meier P, Brennan A. (2016) 'Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland: An adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 3', ScHARR: University of Sheffield, Table 4.17, page 66

98 Angus C, Holmes J, Pryce R, Meier P, Brennan A. (2016) 'Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland: An adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 3', ScHARR: University of Sheffield, Table 4.22, page 79

99 https://sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/sarg-scottish-mup-report-2023.pdf

100 No place for cheap alcohol: the potential value of minimum pricing for protecting lives (who.int)

101 Evaluating the impact of alcohol minimum unit pricing (MUP) on alcohol-attributable deaths and hospital admissions in Scotland (publichealthscotland.scot) , published 21 March 2023

102 Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland's Alcohol Strategy (MESAS) - Alcohol - Health topics - Public Health Scotland, revised down from 47% in 2018 PHS MESAS report

103 Based on the value of a prevented fatality (VPF) calculated by the Department for Transport (DfT). Estimated at £1.9m in 2020 prices. This is based on willingness to pay for reduced probability of death.

104 Evaluating the impact of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland: A synthesis of the evidence - Publications - Public Health Scotland

105 Scottish Government analysis of Circana Ltd data

106 Average PPU figures in this and other tables vary slightly to those in the interim BRIA due to improved data matching between Interim BRIA and Final BRIA. This improved matching had no material impact on the conclusions of the impact assessment.

107 Estimated weighted average unit price from PHS Products and Prices study. Data provided separately for top 50 selling products in supermarket and convenience channels. A weighted average price has been estimated based on value of sales of product if in top 50 selling products in both supermarket and convenience channels. Estimates only available for products which are in Top selling list in 2022 and 2017-18.

108 Average of ‘table wine’ used for 2017 data due to different categorisation in datasets

109 Alcohol Duty: rate changes - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

110 Alcohol tax pass‐through across the product and price range: do retailers treat cheap alcohol differently? - Ally - 2014 - Addiction - Wiley Online Library

111 Overview of the UK Internal Market (publishing.service.gov.uk)

112 The alcohol industry – An overview.docx (ias.org.uk)

113 Supermarket and convenience sector sales combined, excludes sales data from discounter stores (Aldi, Lidl).

114 Previous three years of sales data of Scottish off-sales market purchased from market intelligence company Circana Ltd.

115 Estimation of integrated price elasticities for alcohol and tobacco in the United Kingdom using the living costs and food survey 2006–2017 - Pryce - Drug and Alcohol Review - Wiley Online Library

116 MESAS monitoring report 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland – estimate of total sales value using average price per unit, total units sold per adult drinker, adult population of Scotland.

117 https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2019/08/input-output-latest/documents/all-tables-latest-year/all-tables-latest-year/govscot%3Adocument/SUT-2019.xlsx

118 Developments - Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

119 Evaluating the impact of MUP on alcohol products and prices 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland

120 Evaluating the impact of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland: A synthesis of the evidence - Publications - Public Health Scotland

121 Circana Ltd provided the Scottish Government with full product level price data. As such the Scottish Government was unable to undertake and quality assurance of the source data.

122 Minimum Unit Pricing has modest impact on the alcohol industry in Scotland | Frontier Economics (frontier-economics.com)

123 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

124 Estimation of integrated price elasticities for alcohol and tobacco in the United Kingdom using the living costs and food survey 2006–2017 - Pryce - Drug and Alcohol Review - Wiley Online Library

125 Evaluating the impact of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland: A synthesis of the evidence - Publications - Public Health Scotland

126 Four common frameworks are listed for the Department of Health & Social Care and none are relevant.

127 MUP does not apply to sales to trade, The Alcohol (Minimum Price per Unit) (Scotland) Amendment Order 2020 (legislation.gov.uk)

128 WTO | Technical Barriers to Trade

129 Supporting documents - Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

130 Industry Profiles - Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

131 Facts & Figures (scotch-whisky.org.uk)

132 Office for National Statistics, Annual Business Survey (Compiled by Scottish Government)

133 Exports statistics Scotland 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

134 Cereal and oilseed rape harvest: final estimates - 2022 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

135 Petrie, D. et al. (2011) Scoping study of the economic impact on the alcohol industry of pricing and non-price policies to regulate the affordability and availability of alcohol in Scotland.

136 Scottish Liquor Licensing Statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

137 Evaluating the impacts of minimum unit pricing for alcohol on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

138 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

139 Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland's Alcohol Strategy (MESAS) - Alcohol - Health topics - Public Health Scotland

140 Evaluating the impact of MUP on alcohol products and prices 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland

141 Evidence on cross-border purchasing to date (publichealthscotland.scot)

142 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

143 Small retailers - Outcome areas and studies of evaluation of MUP - Evaluation of minimum unit pricing (MUP) - Alcohol - Health topics - Public Health Scotland

144 Evaluating the impact of MUP on alcohol products and prices (publichealthscotland.scot)

145 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

146 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

147 Scottish Breweries & Craft Beer | VisitScotland

148 Breweries in Scotland (camra.org.uk)

149 Facts & Figures (scotch-whisky.org.uk)

150 Independently Owned Scotch Distilleries - The Whiskey Wash

151 14 new whisky distilleries opening in Scotland soon | Scotsman Food and Drink

152 9 Things You Didn't Know about Scottish Gin | VisitScotland

153 The Scottish Gin Society A-Z of Scottish Gins - The Scottish Gin Society

154 The Scottish Gin Society Scottish Gin Distillery Map - The Scottish Gin Society

155 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

156 Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland's Alcohol Strategy (MESAS) - Alcohol - Health topics - Public Health Scotland

157 Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) on sales-based alcohol consumption in Scotland at three years post-implementation - Publications - Public Health Scotland

158 Competition impact assessment: guidelines for policymakers - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

159 Evaluating the impact of MUP on alcohol products and prices 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland

160 Scottish Government analysis of Circana Ltd market data, excludes discounters (Aldi, Lidl)

161 MESAS monitoring report 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland

162 Tackling harmful alcohol use: economics and public health policy. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (https://www.oecd.org/health/tackling-harmful-alcohol-use-9789264181069-en.htm )

163 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

164 Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) of alcohol in Scotland on cross-border purchasing, Evidence on cross-border purchasing to date (publichealthscotland.scot)

165 Addendum (YouGov) to ‘Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) of alcohol in Scotland on cross-border purchasing’, published 31 January 2023, Addendum (YouGov) to ‘Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) of alcohol in Scotland on cross-border purchasing’ (publichealthscotland.scot)

166 Evidence on cross-border purchasing to date (publichealthscotland.scot)

167 Addendum (YouGov) to ‘Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) of alcohol in Scotland on cross-border purchasing’, published 31 January 2023, Addendum (YouGov) to ‘Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) of alcohol in Scotland on cross-border purchasing’ (publichealthscotland.scot)

168 https://www.mshblegal.com/Licensing-Blogs/Licensing/alcohol-to-order.html

169 Minimum unit pricing of alcohol : final business and regulatory impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

170https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/460784/Competition_impact_assessment_Part_1_-_overview.pdf

171Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

172 Evaluating the impact of MUP on alcohol products and prices 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland

173 Minimum unit pricing of alcohol : final business and regulatory impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

174 Minimum unit pricing of alcohol : final business and regulatory impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

175 Evaluating the impact of MUP on alcohol products and prices 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland

176 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

177 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

178 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

179 The Scotch Whisky Regulations 2009 (legislation.gov.uk)

180 Evaluating the impact of MUP on alcohol products and prices (publichealthscotland.scot)

181 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

182 Minimum unit pricing of alcohol : final business and regulatory impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

183 Ireland introduced MUP on 4 January 2022^[183] at a rate of €0.10 per gram of alcohol. A standard drink (unit) in Ireland contains 10g of alcohol which gives a minimum unit price of €1. The UK standard unit of alcohol is 8g, so the equivalent price for a UK unit is €0.80, which converts to around 70 pence using currency converter euro to pound - Google Search, on 2 November 2023.

184 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

185 Fogarty, J. (2008) The demand for beer, wine and spirits: Insights from a meta analysis approach, American Association of Wine Economists, Working paper No.31, November 2008

186 WP201702.pdf (ifs.org.uk)

187 Estimation of own and cross price elasticities of alcohol demand in the UK—A pseudo-panel approach using the Living Costs and Food Survey 2001–2009 (sciencedirectassets.com)

188 Prices, taxes and alcohol use: a systematic umbrella review - Guindon - 2022 - Addiction - Wiley Online Library

189 Evaluating the impact of MUP on alcohol products and prices 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland

190 Evaluating the impact of MUP on alcohol products and prices 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland

191 Minimum Unit Pricing: Impacts on the alcoholic drinks industry in Scotland - Publications - Public Health Scotland

192 Drug and Alcohol Information System (DAISy) is a national database that holds data about drug and alcohol services across Scotland.