Monthly economic brief: December 2020

Footnotes

1. Scotland: https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/; UK: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp; Eurozone: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/publications/news-releases; US: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

2. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 19. https://www.gov.scot/collections/business-and-innovation-statistics/#businessimpactofcoronavirus(covid-19)survey(bics)

3. IHS Markit, RBS Purchasing Managers Index, November 2020.  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/456d089425a1422db9862e8d47bdcc50

4. IHS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Composite PMI, December 2020. https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4bcc14f3db3845a7a5ab9aca65cedd4d

5. This data draws on publicly available Google Mobility Data, more details of which can be found here. The graphs are calculated as 7 day rolling average figures. The raw data is presented at a Local Authority Level. When categorising by Nation / Level, a Local Authority Population weighted average is used to aggregate the results. Due to population sizes, some local Authorities, particularly rural ones, do not always have data available. When this happens groupings are re-weighted by population. This can make some groupings that have smaller numbers of local authorities appear to be more volatile.

6. Retail and Recreation covers visits to restaurants, cafes, shopping centres, theme parks, museums, libraries, movie theatres and similar locations.

7. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-overseas-trade-statistics-and-regional-trade-statistics#current-releases

8. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 19. https://www.gov.scot/collections/business-and-innovation-statistics/#businessimpactofcoronavirus(covid-19)survey(bics)

9. https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#monthlybusinessturnoverindex. The Index is between 0 and 100. Readings above 50 indicate an increase compared to the previous year, and below 50 a decrease.

10. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 19. https://www.gov.scot/collections/business-and-innovation-statistics/#businessimpactofcoronavirus(covid-19)survey(bics)

11. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hmrc-coronavirus-covid-19-statistics

12. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 19 https://www.gov.scot/collections/business-and-innovation-statistics/#businessimpactofcoronavirus(covid-19)survey(bics)

13. https://www.gov.scot/collections/labour-market-statistics/ 

14. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/december2020

15. https://www.gov.scot/collections/labour-market-statistics/

16. https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/12e0f54d2aa549ca95d8b7367c1fd2e8

17.   https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/december2020

18. https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#scottishconsumersentimentindicator(scsi) Due to the coronavirus pandemic, data was not collected in the last two weeks of March and in April and May. Therefore there are no results for Q2 2020 as a whole and in Q1 2020 results are based on 2,129 adults instead of 2,250.

19. https://www.gfk.com/press 

20. Source: SRC/KPMG Scottish Retail Sales Monitor: https://brc.org.uk/retail-insight/content/retail-sales/scottish-retail-sales-monitor/reports/202011_scottish_rsm/

21. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/november2020 

22. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2020/december-2020 

23. https://obr.uk

24. OECD Economic Outlook, December 2020 | Turning hope into reality

25. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/data-forecasts#2020