Publication - Research and analysis

Monthly economic brief: July 2020

Published: 10 July 2020
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate
Topic: Economy
ISBN: 9781839608902

The monthly economic brief provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.

Supporting documents

Footnotes

1. Scotland: https://www.gov.scot/publications/monthly-gdp-april-2020/; https://www.gov.scot/publications/first-estimate-of-gdp-2020-q1/; UK: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2020; Eurozone: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10294996/2-09062020-AP-EN.pdf/8a68ea5e-5189-5b09-24de-ea057adeee15; US: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

2. The Scottish Government published its Coronavirus Route Map to changing lockdown restrictions 21 May. It started moving from Phase 1 into gradually introducing phase 2 changes to restrictions on 19^th June. https://www.gov.scot/collections/coronavirus-covid-19-scotlands-route-map/

3. ONS Business Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, Wave 7, 1 June – 14 June. https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/bulletins/coronavirusandtheeconomicimpactsontheuk/latest

4. IHS Markit, RBS Purchasing Managers Index, May 2020. https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/e6fdf6ec033249648c1f766cf506abb2

5. The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers Index is between 0 and 100. Readings above 50 indicate an increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 a decrease.

6. https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/77508f50614f4294907b785d0945b1ea

7. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/regional-trade-in-goods-statistics-by-month-april-2020

8. ONS Business Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, Wave 7, 1 June – 14 June. https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/bulletins/coronavirusandtheeconomicimpactsontheuk/latest

9. Relating to the frameworks presented in https://www.gov.scot/publications/state-economy-april-2020/

10. https://www.gov.scot/publications/monthly-business-turnover-index-may-2020/ The Index is between 0 and 100. Readings above 50 indicate an increase compared to the previous year, and below 50 a decrease.

11. ONS Business Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, Wave 7, 1 June – 14 June. https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/bulletins/coronavirusandtheeconomicimpactsontheuk/latest

12. Based on OCEA analysis of Scottish Annual Business Statistics and ONS Business Impacts of Coronavirus Survey.

13. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-statistics-june-2020

14. ONS Business Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, Wave 7, 1 June – 14 June. https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/bulletins/coronavirusandtheeconomicimpactsontheuk/latest

15. https://www.gov.scot/collections/labour-market-statistics/

16. https://www.gov.scot/collections/labour-market-statistics/

17. https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/054118c564104d339eea711e43dcc686

18. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/june2020

19. https://www.gfk.com/en-gb/press/UK-Consumer-Confidence-gains-six-points?hsLang=en-gb

20. https://www.gfk.com/en-gb/press/UK-Consumer-Confidence-improves-three-points?hsLang=en-gb

21. Barclays UK Consumer Spending Report: https://www.barclays.co.uk/content/dam/documents/business/manage-your-business/UK_Consumer_Spending_Report_May_2020.pdf

22. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/money-and-credit/2020/may-2020