Monthly economic brief: June 2022

Output

Scotland’s GDP fell in April and output contracted across the UK as a whole in April.

• The start of 2022 has seen the removal of Covid restrictions from the Omicron wave as well as the remaining Covid legal requirements for businesses and services providers, while international travel restrictions for people coming to Scotland have also ended.
• In April, Scottish output fell by 0.5% (UK: -0.3%), it’s first fall since December 2021, and GDP is now 0.6% above its pre-pandemic level in February 2020 (UK: 0.9%).^[1]

• In the three months to April, GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.8% compared to the previous three month period, with the pace of growth slowing compared to the first quarter of the year and compared to the second half of 2021 prior to the Omicron wave. This pattern of growth remains broadly in line with the UK as a whole.
• At a sectoral level, services output fell by 0.7% in April, while construction fell 0.2% and production grew by 0.1%.
• When looking at broad industry groups, within the services sector, the fall in April was driven by a fall in health, education and public services (-1.2%) and all other services (-1.0%); the latter including a 5% fall in professional, scientific & technical services. This was partially offset by growth in consumer facing services (1.1%).

• Meanwhile, in the rest of the economy, output remained stable in the production, construction and agriculture group (0.0%). Within that, a significant decline over the month was noted in the manufacturing sector (-2.4%).
• Recovery in output back to pre-pandemic levels continues to vary by sector. Output in the production, construction and agriculture group remains 2.3% below its pre-pandemic level. In the services sector, despite contracting in the most recent month, the health, education and public services is 2.9% above while consumer facing services is 1.1% below its pre-pandemic level. Output in all other services was 1.4% above its pre-pandemic level.