Monthly economic brief: March 2021

Footnotes

1  Scotland: https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/; UK: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp; Eurozone: Home - Eurostat (europa.eu); US: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

2  BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 25. https://www.gov.scot/collections/business-and-innovation-statistics/#businessimpactofcoronavirus(covid-19)survey(bics)

3  IHS Markit, RBS Purchasing Managers Index, February 2021. 0bd937e1a2db4f85b864a5b31bb290aa (markiteconomics.com)

4  https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-overseas-trade-statistics-and-regional-trade-statistics#current-releases

5  Rules of Origin are used to determine whether an exported good is subject to preferential tariffs agreed, and usually requires sufficient domestic processing to benefit. For more info on this in the EU-UK Trade Co-operation Agreement: Rules of origin for goods moving between the UK and EU

6  Business and innovation statistics - Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), data to wave 25.

7  HMRC: UK overseas trade in goods statistics: January 2021

8  https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#monthlybusinessturnoverindex. The Index is between 0 and 100. Readings above 50 indicate an increase compared to the previous year, and below 50 a decrease.

9  BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 25. https://www.gov.scot/collections/business-and-innovation-statistics/#businessimpactofcoronavirus(covid-19)survey(bics)

10  https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-statistics-february-2021; https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/self-employment-income-support-scheme-statistics-february-2021

11  BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 25 https://www.gov.scot/collections/business-and-innovation-statistics/#businessimpactofcoronavirus(covid-19)survey(bics)

12  https://www.gov.scot/collections/labour-market-statistics/ 

13  Based on ONS Labour Force Survey, Oct-Dec 2020 however, the ONS Annual Population Survey is a more robust but less timely measure and shows 11.1% 16-24 unemployment rate for Oct 2019 – Sep 2020, also a 2.0 percentage point rise over the year.

14  https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/february2021

15  https://www.gov.scot/collections/labour-market-statistics/

16  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/39c5a5f7ee754a2b95e0ef8314b3b3ee

17   https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/february2021

18  https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#scottishconsumersentimentindicator(scsi) Due to the coronavirus pandemic, data was not collected in the last two weeks of March and in April and May. Therefore there are no results for Q2 2020.

19  https://www.gfk.com/press?countries67=countriesUnited+Kingdom&sort=-publication_display_date&searchInput

20  Source: SRC/KPMG Scottish Retail Sales Monitor: https://brc.org.uk/retail-insight/content/retail-sales/scottish-retail-sales-monitor/

21  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/money-and-credit/2021/january-2021 

22  https://blogs.gov.scot/statistics/2020/08/18/the-scottish-covid-19-data-and-intelligence-network/

23  The project has been subject to a Privacy Impact Assessment, and the pseudo-anonymized data have had all personally identifiable information removed and are 'adequately anonymised' as defined by the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

24  https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/january2021

25  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2021/march-2021

26  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2021/february-2021

27  https://www.fiscalcommission.scot/forecast/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts-january-2021/ 

28  https://fraserofallander.org/publications/fai-economic-commentary-2021-q1/ 

29  https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2021/ 

30  https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/data-forecasts#2021

31  https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/