Monthly economic brief: March 2023

Output

Economic output grew slightly in the fourth quarter of 2022 avoiding a technical recession.

• The Scottish economy grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 (UK: 0.0%), despite falling 0.6% in December, and grew by 0.6% on an annual basis (UK: 0.4%).^[1]
• Growth in the fourth quarter followed a contraction of 0.1% in the third quarter meaning the economy avoided a technical recession during 2022, however growth during the year was largely confined to the first quarter of the year and was broadly flat thereafter.

• At a sector level, services output was flat (0.0%) in the fourth quarter and grew 0.7% on an annual basis, though with the pace of growth slowing over the year. Within that, consumer facing services output fell 0.1% over the quarter and more broadly contracted over the second half of the year. This partly reflects the demand side challenges facing the economy from the sharp rise in inflation and its impact on household disposable income.
• Production sector output grew 0.2% in the fourth quarter however fell 0.3% annually. This was predominantly driven by a third consecutive quarterly fall in manufacturing output and a 1.5% fall over the year as a whole. In contrast, construction output grew 0.6% over the quarter and 1.7% over the year.

• At a UK wide level, ONS reported that there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that postal and rail strike activity during the fourth quarter had an impact on output across a range of industries, however it is not possible to isolate their impacts from other demand and supply factors currently impacting across the wider economy.^[2]