Publication - Research and analysis

Monthly economic brief: October 2020

Published: 30 October 2020
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate
Topic: Economy
ISBN: 9781800042742

The monthly economic brief provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.

Supporting documents

Footnotes

1. Scotland: https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/; UK: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp; Eurozone: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/publications/news-releases; US: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

2. Scottish Government Estimates of ONS Business Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, Wave 15, 5 October to 18 October 2020. https://www.gov.scot/collections/business-and-innovation-statistics/#businessimpactofcoronavirus(covid-19)survey(bics)

3. Including those businesses in Scotland who also received UKG support

4. IHS Markit, RBS Purchasing Managers Index, September 2020.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/3f3ebe61bc45412db66928ad75960711

5. The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers Index is between 0 and 100. Readings above 50 indicate an increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 a decrease.

6. https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/67777e5fdf8949959881048618c2480e

7. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-overseas-trade-statistics-and-regional-trade-statistics#current-releases

8. HMRC UK Trade data for Scottish Ports

9. SG estimates of ONS Business Impacts of COVID-19 Survey data, Wave 15, 21 September – 18 October. https://www.gov.scot/collections/business-and-innovation-statistics/#businessimpactofcoronavirus(covid-19)survey(bics)

10. https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#monthlybusinessturnoverindex. The Index is between 0 and 100. Readings above 50 indicate an increase compared to the previous year, andhttps://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#monthlybusinessturnoverindexhttps://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#monthlybusinessturnoverindex below 50 a decrease.

11. SG estimates of ONS Business Impacts ofCOVID-19 Survey data, Wave 15, 21 September – 18 October. https://www.gov.scot/collections/business-and-innovation-statistics/#businessimpactofcoronavirus(covid-19)survey(bics)

12. https://www.gov.scot/publications/gdp-quarterly-national-accounts-2020-q2/

13. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hmrc-coronavirus-covid-19-statistics

14. SG estimates of ONS Business Impacts ofCOVID-19 Survey data, Wave 15, 21 September – 18 October. https://www.gov.scot/collections/business-and-innovation-statistics/#businessimpactofcoronavirus(covid-19)survey(bics)

15. The labour Force Survey account for furloughed workers as employed, but temporarily away from work.

16. https://www.gov.scot/collections/labour-market-statistics/

17. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/october2020#regional-data

18. https://www.gov.scot/collections/labour-market-statistics/

19. https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/fa22926ad8d04dc28315f2144ac23f05

20. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/october2020#regional-data

21. Institute for Fiscal Studies, The idiosyncratic impact of an aggregate shock, May, 2020

22. Scottish Government, Coronavirus: economic impact of labour market effects, June, 2020

23. Scottish Government, Gender Pay Gap Action Plan, Analytical Annex, March, 2019

24. HMRC, Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme statistics: secondary analysis of ended furloughs, October, 2020

25. The Annual Population Survey is a more robust measure of unemployment by age but is less timely

26. Institute for Fiscal Studies, Sector shutdowns during the coronavirus crisis: which workers are most exposed?, April, 2020

27. Office for National Statistics, Coronavirus and homeworking in the UK: April, 2020

28. Office for National Statistics, Coronavirus and the social impacts on disabled people in Great Britain, August, 2020

29. Office for National Statistics, Which occupations have the highest potential exposure to the coronavirus (COVID-19)?, May, 2020

30. Resolution Foundation. Evaluating the effects of the current economic crisis on the UK labour market

31. https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#scottishconsumersentimentindicator(scsi) Due to the coronavirus pandemic, data was not collected in the last two weeks of March and in April and May. Therefore there are no results for Q2 2020 as a whole and in Q1 2020 results are based on 2,129 adults instead of 2,250.

32. Source: Scottish Retail Consortium.

33. https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#gdpquarterlynationalaccounts,scotland(qnas)

34. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/money-and-credit/2020/september-2020

35. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/september2020

36. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2020/september-2020

37. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO

38. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/data-forecasts#2020

39. https://www.gov.scot/publications/state-economy/