Monthly economic brief: September 2021

Footnotes

1. https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/, and GDP monthly estimate, UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

2. Monthly GDP is a preliminary indicator, and is subject to revision. UK GDP was recently revised up in the GDP Quarterly National Accounts, meaning that UK GDP was around 1% below pre-pandemic levels in June and July. These revisions may not be reflected in results for Scotland until the next GDP Quarterly National Accounts for Scotland is published. Until then users should be cautious about making comparisons between different vintages of statistics. On a like for like basis, the most recent data show that Scotland has continued to broadly track the UK during the pandemic.

3. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 39 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

4. IHS Markit, RBS Purchasing Managers Index, August 2021. https://rbsbusinesshub.com/articles/scottish-private-sector-sees-further-rapid-growth-in-august

5. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 39 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

6. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 39 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

7. IHS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Composite PMI (September): 5f645e668caa437dab9db76721130775 (markiteconomics.com)

8. UK regional trade in goods statistics: first quarter 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

9. UK overseas trade in goods statistics: July 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

10. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 39 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

11. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 39 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

12. https://www.gov.scot/collections/labour-market-statistics/

13. Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme statistics: 9 September 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

14. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 39 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

15. Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

16. https://www.gov.scot/collections/labour-market-statistics/

17. IHS Markit: RBS Report on Jobs: a9f22232887d46f7afcde7c9f08e5306 (markiteconomics.com)

18. Online job advert estimates - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

19. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 39 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

20. Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

21. IHS Markit: RBS Report on Jobs: a9f22232887d46f7afcde7c9f08e5306 (markiteconomics.com)

22. https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#scottishconsumersentimentindicator(scsi) Due to the pandemic, data was not collected in the last two weeks of March 2020 and in April and May 2020.

23. Retail sales, Great Britain - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

24. Money and Credit - August 2021 | Bank of England

25. Consumer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

26. Bank Rate maintained at 0.1% - September 2021 | Bank of England

27. Producer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

28. Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary 2021 Q3 | FAI

29. Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – August 2021 | Scottish Fiscal Commission

30. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2021/august-2021

31. Forecasts for the UK economy: September 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

32. OECD Economic Outlook

33. World Economic Outlook Update, July 2021: Fault Lines Widen in the Global Recovery (imf.org)