Publication - Statistics

GDP Monthly Estimate: April 2021

Published: 23 June 2021
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate
Topic: Economy

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics measure the output of the economy in Scotland. These monthly estimates have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This publication is designated as experimental official statistics. This means that the statistics are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

Main Findings

Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have increased by 2.0% in April, as the stay at home restriction in place since the beginning of the year was lifted and consumer-facing services began to re-open during the month.

Output remains 3.7% below pre-pandemic levels in February 2020, but has grown to be 1.1% above the previous high point in October before restrictions were tightened over the autumn and winter months.

In April, overall output in the services sector grew by 2.6%, driven by the phased easing of restrictions for accommodation and food services, non-essential retail and other consumer-facing services during the month, as well as the return to in-school learning for all secondary school pupils.

Output in the production sector increased by 0.8% overall, with an increase of 3.8% in manufacturing offset by falls in the other three subsectors. Output in the construction sector is estimated to have decreased by 2.0%.

Important Information About This Release

These results are provisional and likely to be revised in the coming months as data sources are updated and methods are further improved.

Estimates of monthly GDP growth are inherently more volatile than quarterly or annual growth. In normal times it would be sensible to concentrate on the smoother rolling quarterly growth rate (latest three months compared to previous three months). However, at this time, results in this release are mostly presented in terms of monthly growth rates, or the cumulative change compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.

All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation), and relate to Scotland’s onshore economy (which does not include offshore oil and gas extraction).

Further information, including results for detailed industry sectors, can be found in the full publication and results tables downloads.