Publication - Statistics

Monthly GDP Estimate: February 2021

Published: 21 April 2021
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate
Topic: Economy

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics measure the output of the economy in Scotland. These monthly estimates have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This publication is designated as experimental official statistics. This means that the statistics are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

Main Findings

Scotland’s onshore GDP is provisionally estimated to have increased by 0.9% in February, as restrictions on economic activity continued but some primary year groups returned to in-school learning.

Output remains 7.4% below pre-pandemic levels in February 2020, and is 3.3% below the recent high point in October before restrictions were imposed over the winter months.

In February there was growth in each of the production, construction and services sectors, but output remained relatively subdued while restrictions continued for consumer services such as retail and hospitality. Over all, output in the services sector grew by 1.0%, with the largest contribution coming from the education subsector due to the return to school for primary years 1 to 3 on 22 February.

Output in the production sector increased by 0.9% in February, including 0.2% growth in the manufacturing subsector. Output in the construction sector is also estimated to have increased by 1.6%.

Further information, including results for detailed industry sectors, can be found in the full publication and results tables downloads.

Important Information About This Release

These results are provisional and likely to be revised in the coming months as data sources are updated and methods are further improved.

Estimates of monthly GDP growth are inherently more volatile than quarterly or annual growth. In normal times it would be sensible to concentrate on the smoother rolling quarterly growth rate (latest three months compared to previous three months). However, at this time, results in this release are mostly presented in terms of monthly growth rates, or the cumulative change compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.

All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation), and relate to Scotland’s onshore economy (which does not include offshore oil and gas extraction).