GDP Monthly Estimate: February 2024

In February, output in the services sector is estimated to have fallen by 0.7%, with contraction in ten of the fourteen subsectors. The two industries which made the biggest contributions to overall GDP growth in February were Manufacturing, and Retail, Wholesale and Motor Trades, which between them contributed 0.4 percentage points to overall growth. The positive contributions were offset by falling output in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Information & Communications, and Health & Social Work industries.

Production sector output grew by 2.0% in February, with increases in three of four subsectors. Construction sector output fell by 1.3% in February.

As reported by the Office for National Statistics, there were some common themes that were anecdotally reported (as part of the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) for production and services) to have played a part in performance across different industries. However, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact.

Comments provided to the MBS for February 2024 suggested some industries saw supply chains impacted by disruption in the Red Sea. These comments to the survey centred in the wholesale, warehousing and human health industries.

Further analysis on the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) suggested the conflict in the Middle East also impacted industries. One in ten businesses in the wholesale, retail, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles and human health and social work sectors were affected by global supply disruption. Of businesses affected by global supply chain disruption, around 50% of businesses across the economy cited "conflict in the Middle East" as the reason.