Publication - Statistics

GDP Monthly Estimate: July 2021

Published: 22 September 2021
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate
Topic: Economy

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics measure the output of the economy in Scotland. These monthly estimates have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This publication is designated as experimental official statistics. This means that the statistics are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

Main Findings

Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in July, and remains 2.4% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020

Output in the services sector, which accounts for around three quarters of the economy, grew by 0.4% in July, with increases in nine of the fourteen subsectors.

Output in the production sector, which accounts for around 17% of the economy, contracted by 3.0% in July, with falls in the mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and electricity and gas supply subsectors. In July, the largest negative contribution to growth was a 9.9% drop in output from the electricity and gas supply subsector, due to unusually low levels of wind and hydro-generated electricity during the summer.

Output in the construction sector, which accounts for around 6% of the economy is provisionally estimated to have fallen by 0.4% in July, broadly in line with the UK as a whole over the course of the latest three months.

In the three months to July, GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.4% compared to the previous three month period. This reflects a slowdown in growth relative to the Quarter 2 (April to June) estimate of 4.7%.

Important Information About This Release

Estimates of monthly GDP growth are inherently more volatile than quarterly or annual growth. In normal times it would be sensible to concentrate on the smoother rolling quarterly growth rate (latest three months compared to previous three months). However, at this time, results in this release are mostly presented in terms of monthly growth rates, or the cumulative change compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.

All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation), and relate to Scotland’s onshore economy (which does not include offshore oil and gas extraction).

Further information can be found in the full publication below (pdf).