GDP monthly estimate: June 2022

Quarterly and monthly results

Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.8% in June, after growing by 0.6% in May, and falling by 0.6% in April. GDP is now 0.4% above the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

One factor which could have influenced growth rates in recent months, as noted by the ONS in the release of UK monthly GDP, is that the timing of bank holidays around the Platinum Jubilee led to an additional working day in May and two fewer working days than normal in June. This should be considered when interpreting the movements over the two months. In total, output has fallen by 0.2% across the last two months combined.  

For Quarter 2 as a whole, in the three months to June, GDP is estimated to have remained flat (0.0% growth) compared to the previous three month period. This is a sharp slowdown in growth after the increase of 1.0% between 2021 Quarter 4 and 2022 Quarter 1.

Monthly GDP is much more volatile than quarterly GDP, particularly in recent months. While monthly GDP has seen quite large rises and falls since the start of 2022, the average level of output was the same in Quarter 2 as in Quarter 1.