GDP Monthly Estimate: June 2023

Quarterly and monthly results

Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have remained flat (0.0% change) in June. This follows no growth in May (0.0% change, revised up from -0.2%).

In the three months to June, GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% compared to the previous three month period. This is a sharp reduction compared to the growth of 0.2% in 2023 Quarter 1 (January to March). Further information on quarterly GDP can be found in the First Estimate of GDP for 2023 Quarter 2.

Monthly GDP is much more volatile than quarterly GDP.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) commented on some common themes that were anecdotally reported as part of the Monthly Business Survey to have played a part in performance across different industries. However it is often difficult to quantify these effects.

At a UK level, a range of businesses across industries (mainly manufacturing and construction) cited the additional bank holiday, for the Coronation of King Charles III on Monday 8 May, as a reason for increased monthly output in June 2023 compared to May.

June 2023 also had exceptionally warm weather as detailed in the Met Office's June 2023 climate summary (PDF, 5.7MB). This report stated that the "provisional UK mean temperature for June was 15.8 °C, which is 2.5 °C above average, making it the warmest June in a series from 1884". The warm period in June 2023 was cited as a positive factor from businesses, most notably in the hospitality (accommodation, restaurants, and licensed premises), tourism (outdoor recreation activities) and construction sectors. Conversely, Scotland experiencing its hottest June on record may have contributed to the lower output of Gas and Electricity Supply in June.