GDP Monthly Estimate: May 2022
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics measure the output of the economy in Scotland. These monthly estimates are designated as experimental official statistics, meaning they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage.
Cross-Industry Themes
Although the economy is estimated to have returned to growth in May after the fall in April, over the latest two months there has been cumulative growth of just 0.1%. Meanwhile, the rolling quarterly growth rate (latest 3 months compared to previous 3 months) has slowed to 0.7% from the increase of 1.0% seen in Quarter 1. This slowing of growth is consistent with the results for the UK as a whole, and reflects the intensifying inflationary pressures seen in recent months, with annual inflation measured by the consumer prices index reaching 9.1% in May.
The Office for National Statistics noted some common themes reported by businesses in survey responses for the UK May Monthly GDP statistics. UK-wide respondents reported that continuing increases in the cost of production had affected their business, with producer input prices rising to the highest level since records began in 1985.
Looking ahead slightly, with consumer price inflation increasing again to 9.4% in June, Scottish businesses in the Business Insights and Conditions Survey reported that their main concerns for July were inflation of goods and services prices and energy prices. The Scottish Government Consumer Sentiment Indicatorfor Quarter 2 decreased by 9.9 points to the lowest level since 2021 Quarter 1, driven by concern over the economy and attitudes to spending,reflecting the intensifying economic and financial challenges that are being faced by households.
Revisions
Estimates in this release are consistent with the GDP Quarterly National Accounts for 2022 Quarter 1 published on 27 July. At the quarterly level, results are open for revision during 2022 Quarter 1 only, with monthly GDP fully open to revision back to January 2022. The main revisions seen during quarter 1 are an upward revision to electricity output across the quarter due to higher levels of wind generation than provisionally estimated, and a downward revision to construction output in line with similar revisions at UK level.
Although there are no changes to quarterly GDP in earlier periods, the monthly path within each quarter can be revised slightly in all periods back to 2010 due to updated seasonal adjustment factors or constraint adjustments to the quarterly results.
Background Information
Contact
email: economic.statistics@gov.scot
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