Publication - Statistics

GDP Monthly Estimate: September 2021

Published: 24 November 2021
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate
Topic: Economy

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics measure the output of the economy in Scotland. These monthly estimates have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This publication is designated as experimental official statistics. This means that the statistics are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

Main Findings

Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in September, and output is still 1.1% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.
Using the experimental monthly statistics for Quarter 3 as a whole (July to September), GDP is provisionally estimated to have grown by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter.
Output in the services sector, which accounts for around three quarters of the economy, grew by 0.5% in September, with increases in nine of the fourteen subsectors. In quarterly terms, services output is provisionally estimated to have increased by 2.0% compared to Quarter 2.
Output in the production sector, which accounts for around 16% of the economy, contracted by 0.9% in September. There were falls in the two of the four subsectors, which offset growth of 0.3% in the manufacturing subsector. In quarterly terms, production output is provisionally estimated to have fallen by 3.7% compared to Quarter 2.
Output in the construction sector, which accounts for around 6% of the economy is estimated to have grown by 1.9% in September. In quarterly terms, construction output is provisionally estimated to have fallen by 1.5% compared to Quarter 2.

Important Information About This Release

Estimates of monthly GDP growth are inherently more volatile than quarterly or annual growth. In normal times it would be sensible to concentrate on the smoother rolling quarterly growth rate (latest three months compared to previous three months). However, due to the ongoing impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, results are mostly presented in terms of monthly growth rates, or the cumulative change compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020. Additionally, the September results enable provisional estimates for the whole of Quarter 3 to be reported.

All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation), and relate to Scotland’s onshore economy (which does not include offshore oil and gas extraction).

Further information can be found in the full publication below (pdf).