Up-rating devolved Social Security assistance: multi criteria decision analysis - January 2024

Annex A: Outcomes for Clients

1. Table A1 shows the estimated cumulative change^[30] in the real value of devolved social security assistance between April 2020 and April 2024, for each option. The real value calculations show how well payments are keeping up with inflation through uprating. A negative change means payments are worth less in real terms than at the start of the period^[31].

2. The change in real value is a function of how realised inflation rates compare to the uprating rate applied. When the realised inflation rate is higher than the uprating rate, this will mean a loss in real value – and vice versa. There will be no change in real value if the uprating rate is the same as the inflation rate.

3. Table A1 follows the approach taken by the Scottish Government for most devolved assistance up until April 2023, with each option applied for April 2024.

4. These results show the following approaches when applied to benefit rates in 2024-25 are estimated to produce the closest match between uprating to benefit rates and realised inflation rates between April 2020 and April 2024, represented by the estimated change in real terms values:

• September CPIH (+0.5%)
• September CPI/December Household Costs Index (+0.9%/-0.9%)

5. For comparison, Table A2 follows the approach taken by UK Government to uprate most reserved assistance and the effect on real terms values of each option. These values may be more relevant for benefit clients in Scotland on particular benefits (e.g. Adult Disability Payment) whose equivalent benefits (Disability Living Allowance and Personal Independence Payment) are still administered by the DWP through agency agreements, since uprating has followed the UK Government approach for these benefits.

6. In this instance the September Household Costs Index provides the closest match between rates applied to uprate assistance and inflation, with a -1% loss in value.