National Improvement Framework for Scottish Education - 2016 Evidence Report

Key Priority: Improvement in employability skills and sustained, positive, school-leaver destinations for all young people

Leaver destinations: Main findings

92% of leavers in 2014/15 were in a positive destination in March 2016 (an increase from 90.4% for 2012/13).

'Positive destinations' include higher education, further education, training, voluntary work, employment and activity agreements. The chart below shows the percentage of leavers from 2014/15 in positive destinations in March 2016, as well as the percentage of leavers who were unemployed.

Leaver destinations: Evidence on the gap
While 96.3% of 2014/15 school leavers from the 20% least deprived areas were in a positive follow-up destination in March 2016 (3.3% were unemployed), 86.3% from the 20% most deprived areas were in positive destinations (12.7% unemployed)

This gap in positive leaver destinations has decreased slightly over the past four years: from 13.6 percentage points in 2011/12 to 10.0 percentage points in 2014/15:

Of the various types of positive destinations, the difference is most notable for further or higher education: while 72.1% of 2014/15 school leavers from the least deprived quintile were in further or higher education in March 2016, this is the case for only 51.8% of leavers from the most deprived quintile.

More information on leaver destinations can be found in the 2016 Summary Statistics for Attainment, Leaver Destinations and Healthy Living publication.

Developing the Young Workforce
Developing the Young Workforce is a seven-year programme that aims to better prepare children and young people from 3-18 for the world of work. This programme builds on the foundations already in place as part of CfE. The programme's headline aim is to reduce youth unemployment by 40% by 2021.

The Scottish Government published a 'Youth Employment Strategy', with a focus on improving work experience, careers information, advice and guidance and providing greater access to vocational learning.

The strategy includes a set of Key Performance Indicators, one of which is to 'increase the percentage of school leavers attaining vocational qualifications at SCQF Level 5 and above by 2021'.

In 2014/15, 9.0% of school leavers left with one or more vocational qualifications at SCQF Level 5 or better, compared with 7.3% in 2013/14.

Participation measure
In 2012 the Scottish Government made an explicit commitment to offer a place in learning or training to every 16-19 year old in Scotland who is not currently in employment, education or training. This Opportunities for All (OfA) pledge aims to ensure all young people are supported in their path to sustainable employment.

The annual participation measure ( PM) reports on the activity of the wider 16-19 year-old cohort, including those at school, and will help to inform policy, planning and service delivery and determine the impact of the OfA commitment. The measure uses the shared data set held by Skills Development Scotland ( SDS) on their Customer Support System ( CSS).

Central to the creation of the shared dataset is the sharing of information to allow partners to identify what young people are doing in 'real time' throughout their 16-19 journeys. It also allows SDS and partners to improve service delivery and provide a more tailored offer, helping to identify the right time to engage with customers.

Main findings

The proportion of 16-19 year olds participating in education, training or employment within the annual measure is 90.4%.

• Rate for 16 year olds is 98.7%
• Rate for 17 year olds is 93.9%
• Rate for 18 year olds is 88.0%
• Rate for 19 year olds is 81.7%

The proportion of 16-19 year olds not participating within the annual measure is 4.0%.

• Rate for 16 year olds is 1.0%
• Rate for 17 year olds is 3.7%
• Rate for 18 year olds is 5.5%
• Rate for 19 year olds is 5.8%

The proportion of 16-19 years within the annual measure reported as unconfirmed is 5.6%.

% Annual Participation of 16-19 year olds by SIMD Decile (2016)

Overall, those who live in more deprived areas are less likely to be reported as participating within the annual measure than those from the less deprived areas: There is a 14.9 percentage point difference in the participation rate between those from SIMD 1 and SIMD 10.

Those from the less deprived areas are more likely to be reported in education compared to those from more deprived areas. The proportion of 16-19 year olds reported as participating in education from the least deprived areas ( SIMD decile 10) is 84.1% compared to 61.2% for those from the most deprived areas ( SIMD decile 1), a difference of 22.9 percentage points.

A higher proportion of 16-19 year olds from the more deprived areas are reported as unemployed seeking employment or training compared to those from the less deprived areas. For example, 6.2% of those from SIMD 1 are unemployed seeking employment or training compared to 0.6% from SIMD 10.