National Mission on Drugs: annual report

10. Monitoring and Evaluation

10.1 Understanding Impact

The National Mission on Drugs: Annual Monitoring Report provides an analysis of the progress made towards the National Mission on Drugs within each financial year. It provides a robust statistical backdrop to better understand and monitor progress and complements this publication which outlines the activity, developments and achievements made towards the National Mission over the same period. The programmes and initiatives that are part of, or aligned to, the National Mission are wide-ranging and diverse and so assessing the extent to which progress has been made towards an individual outcome and attributing this to any specific interventions associated with the National Mission is not possible. Short of attribution, it is possible to explore individual metrics to understand if there has been any change since the start of the National Mission and, where possible, compare this to previous trend data.

Due to publication timeframes of data sources, as well as the need to ensure direct attribution of policy initiatives is not inferred, this report is produced as a standalone publication by Scottish Government’s Health and Social Care Analysis Division. The 2023-24 Monitoring Report is due to be published later this year.

The National Mission on Drugs: Monitoring Metrics paper supplements the annual monitoring report and provides a discussion on data development and includes definitions, data sources, rationale for inclusion, and limitations. It is clear that there are gaps in our understanding and that available data cannot comprehensively assess progress against of all aspects of the National Mission. It is anticipated that the metrics will develop as the data landscape evolves and consideration continues to be given to understanding and exploring where data development would support more effective monitoring of progress.

10.2 Evaluation

Public Health Scotland (PHS) was commissioned by the Scottish Government to evaluate the National Mission in 2022 sets out to understand what is (and is not) working well in the National Mission and to enable the Scottish Government to be accountable to the Scottish Parliament and the public about the impact of the National Mission.

The evaluation will primarily take a National Mission-wide perspective and where appropriate focus on specific National Mission programmes. They will also review and synthesise other externally commissioned evaluations funded by organisations outside of PHS which are part of, or aligned to, the National Mission. The evaluation is anticipated to cover the period between 2021 and 2026 and will include key packages of work around available data and evidence, and views from stakeholders and key partners.

A series of publications is planned over the course of the next three years. This is to allow lessons to be learnt as the National Mission is being implemented. In 2024, this includes the evaluation framework which sets out key evaluation questions^[17] and a theory of change as well as a report detailing the findings from an online survey of staff working in frontline alcohol and drug services.

The final PHS evaluation report will be published after the National Mission finishes in 2026.

10.2.1 Evaluation of the Residential Rehabilitation Programme

In 2023, the PHS National Mission evaluation focused on the Scottish Government’s Residential Rehabilitation programme. The overarching aim of the evaluation is to assess the impact of the Scottish Government programme – on how residential rehab is organised, how easily it can be accessed and how well it delivers for individuals with substance use issues across Scotland.

The PHS baseline evaluation report about the Residential Rehabilitation programme was published in February 2024. The main report synthesises the baseline findings across different research projects. These research projects were published alongside the baseline report as stand-alone publications. The baseline findings suggest

that the Residential Rehabilitation programme is contributing to improvements in access to rehab in Scotland. However, substantial challenges remain. The final PHS evaluation report will be published after the Residential Rehabilitation programme finishes, in 2026.