National Planning Framework 4 - lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions: assessment findings

Executive Summary

1 This report provides findings from the assessment of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of the proposed national developments. The assessment is based on descriptions of the proposed national developments as set out in the Revised Draft National Planning Framework 4 (NPF4) submitted to the Scottish Parliament in November 2022, hereafter referred to as 'the Draft NPF4'.

2 The assessment of the proposed national developments considers direct effects and indirect effects on greenhouse gas emissions. Direct effects include, for example, the effects of construction of a development. Indirect effects include those which are enabled by the development, for example, electricity transmission infrastructure which supports renewable energy generation.

3 Many of the proposed national developments include multiple project elements. The assessment considers the greenhouse gas emissions from different elements of each proposed national development, before combining these effects.

4 The assessment is structured against the six emissions sectors of transport, electricity, buildings (heat), industrial, manufacturing and construction processes (including embodied carbon), waste, and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) are included for the assessment of the Industrial Green Transition Zones, which is the only proposed national development for which this sector is relevant. The assessment considers greenhouse gas emissions against the baseline and from the project stages of construction, through operation to decommissioning.

5 The assessment provides initial separate conclusions on the overall direct effects and overall indirect effects, before combining these in an overall summary of effect. This concludes whether the effects of the proposed national development are net positive (decrease emissions) or net negative (increase emissions).

6 For some of the proposed national developments direct effects may increase emissions in the short term, but positive indirect effects may occur over the longer term. The overall summary provides a judgement on the balance of direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions.

7 The proposed national developments are developments that the Scottish Ministers consider strongly support the draft NPF4 spatial strategy, i.e. are 'needed'. Designation as a proposed national development does not remove requirements for relevant consents to be obtained before development can begin and it follows that there is considerable uncertainty as to the detailed scale and location of development that would occur and around the implementation of new technologies. The assessment has therefore drawn on a number of assumptions based on the descriptions in the draft NPF4. Consequently, the overall summary of effect for each proposed national development may include a range in the scale of potential impacts on greenhouse gas emissions.

8 The overall summary of effect is therefore based on the detail provided at the time of the assessment, and the conclusion may alter depending on the nature and detail of the projects taken forward.

9 Table 0.1 below provides an overview of the overall summary of effect of the proposed national developments lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reductions targets in alphabetical order.

Table 0.1 Overall summary of effects from each proposed National Development

National development

Aberdeen Harbour

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Central Scotland Green Network

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Chapelcross Power Station Redevelopment

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Circular Economy Materials Management Facilities

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Clyde Mission

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net negative impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Digital Fibre Network

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall negligible impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National developmentDundee Waterfront

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National developmentEdinburgh Waterfront

Overall summary of effectDepending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Energy Innovation Development on the Islands

Overall summary of effectDepending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both the direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

High Speed Rail

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Hunterston Strategic Asset

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Industrial Green Transition Zones

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both the direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Pumped Hydro storage

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Stranraer Gateway

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Strategic renewable electricity generation and transmission infrastructure

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Urban Mass/Rapid Transit Networks

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

National development

Urban Sustainable Blue and Green Surface Water Management solutions

Overall summary of effect

Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

10 The assessment concludes that considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions the proposed National Developments will make a positive contribution to the 2030 carbon reduction targets, helping to reduce emissions. Overall, the greatest contributions to sectoral emission reductions are likely to be in terms of electricity and, to a lesser extent, transport. While the Industrial, manufacture and construction processes sector is likely to experience the largest increase in direct emissions, it will enable direct and indirect emission reductions across other sectors.